← ScoresTimes: UK time
- HT 2–0
- Lye Meadow, Alfchurch
- Kick-off
- Referee: not supplied
- Data last checked ; unchanged since
Key eventsnot supplied
Not supplied for this match.
What was forecast, and what happened
Statistical model
Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.
Result: Alvechurch win. The model gave it 44.8%.
0.195ranked probability score for this match · 0 is perfect
One match says little: the model's recordFounder’s analysis
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.
Community picks
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.
Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.
Match summary
The record of this match holds only the score, so there is no summary: nothing else would be from the record.
Competition context
FA Cup 2026/27
Knockout roundOne match
- MatchSpalding United 2–2 Alvechurch
- MatchAlvechurch 4–0 Spalding United (this match)
Still to be decided
Related news
News sources last checked · Stories from –
Statisticsnot supplied
Not supplied for this match.
Player statisticsnot supplied
Not supplied for this match.
xG (Highlightly)data delayed
Data for this module is delayed.
Recent form
Alvechurchlimited
- D2–2 at Spalding UnitedFA Cup
- W2–1 at Cambridge CityFA Cup
- W3–1 v Racing Club WarwickFA Cup
- W2–0 v Wolverhampton CityFA Cup
Spalding Unitedlimited
- D2–2 v AlvechurchFA Cup
- W4–0 v Bury TownFA Cup
- D1–1 at Bury TownFA Cup
- W2–0 v Hanley TownFA Cup
Head-to-headlimited
- Spalding United 2–2 AlvechurchFA Cup
Line-upsnot supplied
Not supplied for this match.
Availabilitynot supplied
Absences are not recorded for this competition, so none are shown.
Key players
Alvechurchnot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Spalding Unitednot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.
Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in FA Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.
Match discussion
Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.
Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.
Statistical model
Model forecastlimited
Computed by FMIP’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.
The model gives Alvechurch the most probability, 15.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.
- Expected goals 1.56 – 1.21
- Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (9.2%)
Leading factors
- Home advantage · favours Alvechurch · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
- Team strength · favours neither side · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results; no Elo prior this time
- Attack against defence · favours neither side · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
- No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.
Version 1 · Early pre-match · computed · model [email protected] · data limited
Post-match evaluation
Result 4–0: Alvechurch. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 44.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.802, Brier 0.457 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).
Evaluated
Power Index
no Power Index has been computed for this match yet
Founder’s analysis
Founder’s analysis
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.
Community picks
Your prediction Locked at kick-off
Sign in to predict this match. Predictions need a verified account and lock at kick-off.
Your pick counts towards the community picks only; it is never blended with the statistical model or the founder’s analysis.
Community forecast
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.
Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.
Analysis from approved contributors
Written by members the platform approved. Not the founder’s analysis, not the statistical model, and not the community consensus.
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.
Where to watch
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Coverage for this season
- scores: available
- incidents: limited
- lineups: not supplied
- statistics: limited
- standings: not supplied
- availability: not supplied
- advanced statistics: not supplied