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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Heerenveen
Where to watch

· Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Joey Kooij
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
  • Referee: Joey Kooij
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨PSV Eindhoven⁩ win. The model gave it 69.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.057 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.93 – 1.33⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.38 – 1.57⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 7.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 6.7%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 6.1%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 5.9%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.1.0 · v2 computed 09 Oct, 18:35 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 8 Oct on 335 matches since Sept 2025 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

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Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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Under 5
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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:00Kick-off
  2. 29′Goal · PSV EindhovenG. Til
  3. 42′Yellow card · PSV EindhovenA. Obispo
  4. 60′Yellow card · HeerenveenM. Linday
  5. 68′Own goal · PSV EindhovenM. Linday
  6. 74′Yellow card · HeerenveenS. Kersten
Substitutions (10)
  1. 64′Substitution · HeerenveenR. Meerveld on · L. Smans off
  2. 64′Substitution · HeerenveenM. Farji on · M. Rivera off
  3. 65′Substitution · PSV EindhovenY. Gasiorowski on · A. Obispo off
  4. 65′Substitution · PSV EindhovenF. Kostić on · N. Fernandez off
  5. 65′Substitution · PSV EindhovenI. Perišić on · E. Bajraktarević off
  6. 75′Substitution · HeerenveenM. Egbring on · O. Braude off
  7. 75′Substitution · HeerenveenL. Machine on · D. Vente off
  8. 83′Substitution · PSV EindhovenA. Santos on · R. van Bommel off
  9. 83′Substitution · PSV EindhovenS. Cornecion on · Mauro Júnior off
  10. 83′Substitution · HeerenveenL. Oyen on · N. Courtens off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 55%Possession45%
  • 2.38Expected goals (xG)1.57

Attack

  • 16Shots12
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 10Shots off target5
  • 4Blocked shots2
  • 4Corners6
  • 1Offsides0
  • 5Saves0

Passing

  • 508Passes421
  • 436Accurate passes353

Discipline

  • 19Fouls10
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

PSV Eindhoven
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
G. Til908.010201
K. Sano907.200112
M. Kovář908.100000
R. Flamingo907.200004
S. Dest907.400011
S. Mijnans906.500621
R. van Bommel836.300230
Mauro Júnior826.700113
A. Obispo657.000002
E. Bajraktarević656.600200
N. Fernandez656.900103
F. Kostić256.800000
I. Perišić256.600010
Y. Gasiorowski257.100000
S. Cornecion86.900100
A. Santos77.000011
Heerenveen
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Klaverboer905.700000
J. Trenskow906.400010
M. Willemsen906.700001
M. Linday905.500103
S. Kersten906.100013
V. Zagaritis906.500300
N. Courtens836.500110
D. Vente756.300210
O. Braude755.800111
L. Smans646.000022
M. Rivera646.700310
M. Farji266.400001
R. Meerveld266.200100
L. Machine156.300000
M. Egbring156.100001
L. Oyen76.300000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Heerenveen4-2-3-1

  1. 22Klaverboer5.7
  1. 45BraudeOff 75′5.8
  2. 4KerstenBooked 74′6.1
  3. 3Willemsen6.7
  4. 19Zagaritis6.5
  1. 16LindayBooked 60′ · Own goal 68′5.5
  2. 36CourtensOff 83′6.5
  1. 20Trenskow6.4
  2. 14SmansOff 64′6.0
  3. 7RiveraOff 64′6.7
  1. 9VenteOff 75′6.3
  1. 21Mijnans6.5
  1. 7van BommelOff 83′6.3
  2. 20TilGoal 29′8.0
  3. 19BajraktarevićOff 65′6.6
  1. 31FernandezOff 65′6.9
  2. 24Sano7.2
  1. 17Mauro JúniorOff 83′6.7
  2. 4ObispoBooked 42′ · Off 65′7.0
  3. 6Flamingo7.2
  4. 8Dest7.4
  1. 32Kovář8.1

PSV Eindhoven4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

PSV Eindhoven · Bench

Coach: P. Bosz

Heerenveen · Bench

Coach: Robin Veldman

Key players

PSV Eindhovenavailable

  1. M. Kovář · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Obispo · Defender617 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. Mauro Júnior · Defender598 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Heerenveenavailable

  1. B. Klaverboer · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Willemsen · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. V. Zagaritis · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives PSV Eindhoven the most probability, 51.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours PSV Eindhoven · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours PSV Eindhoven · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours PSV Eindhoven · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · PSV Eindhoven +0.3, draw -0.1, Heerenveen -0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (344 → 335), history from (27 Aug 2025 → 3 Sept 2025) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: PSV Eindhoven. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 69.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.372, Brier 0.146 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

PSV Eindhoven91.1
Heerenveen62.2
PSV Eindhoven — 91.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 19 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Heerenveen — 62.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 09 Oct, 18:35 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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