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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Standard Liège v Kortrijk

Standard LiègeS. Drammeh 63′
1–1FT · HT 0–1
KortrijkG. Koyalipou 45′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: B. Van Driessche
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: B. Van Driessche
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 23.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.214 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.70 – 0.58⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.41 – 1.58⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 17.0%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 14.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.6%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 31 Oct, 16:55 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 30 Oct on 919 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:15Kick-off
  2. 5′Yellow card · Standard LiègeI. Hautekiet
  3. 15′Yellow card · KortrijkA. Drouhin
  4. 30′Yellow card · Standard LiègeA. Trouillet
  5. 45+2′Yellow card · Standard LiègeA. Abid
  6. 45′Penalty · KortrijkG. Koyalipou
  7. 46′Substitution · Standard LiègeB. Nsimba on · A. Zeqiri off
  8. 49′Yellow card · KortrijkT. Ambrose
  9. 63′Goal · Standard LiègeS. Drammeh · (assist I. Hautekiet)
  10. 67′Substitution · KortrijkR. Štorman on · B. Lambert off
  11. 71′Yellow card · KortrijkJ. Van Landschoot
  12. 76′Substitution · KortrijkR. Kohon on · M. Fofana off
  13. 76′Substitution · KortrijkS. Ogbuehi on · T. Ambrose off
  14. 81′Substitution · Standard LiègeB. Nguene on · D. Eckert Ayensa off
  15. 88′Substitution · KortrijkG. Ruyssen on · A. Philips off
  16. 88′Substitution · KortrijkL. De Smet on · J. Van Landschoot off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 1Blocked shots3
  • 10Corners4
  • 1.41Expected goals (xG)1.58
  • 7Fouls16
  • 0Offsides2
  • 74%Pass accuracy65%
  • 521Passes345
  • 383Accurate passes224
  • 60%Possession40%
  • 5Saves5
  • 18Shots14
  • 11Shots off target5
  • 6Shots on target6
  • 3Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Standard Liège
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Abid907.500120
A. Trouillet907.2001–0
G. Mortensen906.600110
I. Hautekiet907.001412
I. Karamoko906.9002–1
L. Pirard906.900––0
M. Fossey907.700123
R. Touzghar907.200151
S. Drammeh907.910221
D. Eckert Ayensa816.3001–0
A. Zeqiri456.2002–0
B. Nsimba457.000–20
B. Nguene96.2001–0
Kortrijk
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Drouhin907.500112
G. Koyalipou907.2104–1
H. Murray-Campbell907.200––3
J. Ndjeungoue907.000––2
M. Ilić907.300––0
M. Anderson907.000–15
J. Van Landschoot897.000121
A. Philips886.300––0
M. Fofana767.000110
T. Ambrose766.600121
B. Lambert676.2001–0
R. Štorman236.900110
R. Kohon146.900––1
S. Ogbuehi146.200–20
G. Ruyssen2–00––0
L. De Smet1–001–0

xG (Highlightly) available

Standard Liège
PlayerxGxAxGOT
L. Pirard–––
Kortrijk
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Ilić–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Kortrijk5-4-1

  1. 31M. Ilić7.3
  1. 15M. Fofana
  2. 21A. Drouhin7.5
  3. 4H. Murray-Campbell7.2
  4. 5J. Ndjeungoue7.0
  5. 3M. Anderson7.0
  1. 18J. Van Landschoot7.0
  2. 35B. Lambert6.2
  3. 70A. Philips6.3
  4. 68T. Ambrose (c)6.6
  1. 10G. Koyalipou7.2
  1. 10D. Eckert Ayensa6.3
  2. 9A. Zeqiri6.2
  1. 11A. Abid7.5
  2. 84R. Touzghar7.2
  3. 22A. Trouillet7.2
  4. 15S. Drammeh7.9
  1. 3G. Mortensen6.6
  2. 25I. Hautekiet7.0
  3. 20I. Karamoko6.9
  4. 13M. Fossey (c)7.7
  1. 21L. Pirard6.9

Standard Liège4-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Standard Liège · Bench

Coach: Vincent Euvrard

Kortrijk · Bench

Coach: Daniel Beichler

Key players

Standard Liègeavailable

  1. A. Abid · Forward810 min in 9 matches · 3 goals · 2 assists
  2. I. Hautekiet · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. I. Karamoko · Defender765 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Kortrijkavailable

  1. T. Ambrose · Forward672 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. B. Dejaegere · Midfielder628 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. G. Ruyssen · Defender540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Standard Liège the most probability, 40.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Standard Liège · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Standard Liège · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Standard Liège · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Standard Liège +0.2, draw -0.1, Kortrijk -0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (23 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (927 → 923), history from (19 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Standard Liège -0.1, draw +0.1, Kortrijk 0.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (25 Oct 2026 → 30 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (923 → 919), history from (21 Oct 2023 → 26 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 23.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.433, Brier 1.008 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Standard Liège61.2
Kortrijk9.6
Standard Liège — 61.295% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 44% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Kortrijk — 9.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 31 Oct, 16:55 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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