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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Bolton v Stoke City

BoltonT. Bair 90′
1–2FT · HT 0–1
Stoke CityL. Cissé 45′ · B. Wilmot 62′
Where to watch

· Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Thomas Kirk
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
  • Referee: Thomas Kirk
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Stoke City⁩ win. The model gave it 33.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.298 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.61 – 1.47⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦3.13 – 0.74⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.8%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 6.1%

⁦1–2⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time, 17 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 8 Oct on 1,631 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 20′Red card · Stoke CityM. Talovierov
  3. 34′Yellow card · Stoke CityJ. McGlynn
  4. 45′Goal · Stoke CityL. Cissé · (assist E. Galbraith)
  5. 62′Goal · Stoke CityB. Wilmot · (assist J. McGlynn)
  6. 72′Yellow card · BoltonM. Conway
  7. 90′Goal · BoltonT. Bair · (assist G. Larrazabal)
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Substitution · BoltonA. Ito on · E. Erhahon off
  2. 46′Substitution · Stoke CityL. Bombino on · J. Devenny off
  3. 56′Substitution · BoltonJ. Nelson on · T. Gale off
  4. 56′Substitution · BoltonS. Iling Junior on · K. Dong off
  5. 63′Substitution · BoltonR. Hardie on · R. Rodrigues off
  6. 69′Substitution · Stoke CityJ. Tchamadeu on · J. McGlynn off
  7. 69′Substitution · Stoke CityB. Lawal on · D. Soumaré off
  8. 69′Substitution · Stoke CityG. Hirst on · L. Cissé off
  9. 82′Substitution · BoltonT. Bair on · B. Davies off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 68%Possession32%
  • 3.13Expected goals (xG)0.74

Attack

  • 30Shots9
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 14Shots off target4
  • 11Blocked shots1
  • 10Corners4
  • 0Offsides2
  • 2Saves4

Passing

  • 547Passes269
  • 501Accurate passes185
  • 92%Pass accuracy69%

Discipline

  • 8Fouls9
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Bolton
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Toal906.600002
G. Larrazabal906.901130
G. Bazunu906.500000
J. Sheehan908.700243
M. Conway907.200023
S. Dalby905.600600
B. Davies826.900000
R. Rodrigues637.200042
K. Dong566.300110
T. Gale566.300201
A. Ito456.300120
E. Erhahon457.000001
J. Nelson347.200312
S. Iling Junior347.000111
R. Hardie277.200111
T. Bair88.010210
Stoke City
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Johnson907.300013
B. Wilmot907.610200
E. Bocat907.200001
E. Galbraith907.201121
L. Graham907.500003
V. Johansson907.300000
D. Soumaré697.300003
J. McGlynn697.601142
L. Cissé698.010201
J. Devenny456.300000
L. Bombino456.600103
B. Lawal216.400101
B. Lawal216.5–01–1
G. Hirst216.500000
J. Tchamadeu216.300000
M. Talovierov204.300001

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Stoke City3-4-3

  1. 1Johansson (c)7.3
  1. 16WilmotGoal 62′7.6
  2. 40TalovierovSent off 20′4.3
  3. 5Graham7.5
  1. 2Johnson7.3
  2. 27SoumaréOff 69′7.3
  3. 8Galbraith7.2
  4. 17Bocat7.2
  1. 7McGlynnBooked 34′ · Off 69′7.6
  2. 11CisséGoal 45′ · Off 69′8.0
  3. 13DevennyOff 46′6.3
  1. 10Dalby5.6
  1. 11GaleOff 56′6.3
  2. 20RodriguesOff 63′7.2
  3. 7DongOff 56′6.3
  1. 21ErhahonOff 46′7.0
  2. 8Sheehan8.7
  1. 25ConwayBooked 72′7.2
  2. 6DaviesOff 82′6.9
  3. 18Toal (c)6.6
  4. 22Larrazabal6.9
  1. 31Bazunu6.5

Bolton4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Bolton · Bench

Coach: Steven Schumacher

Stoke City · Bench

Coach: Mark Robins

Key players

Boltonavailable

  1. J. Sheehan · Midfielder716 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. S. Dalby · Forward638 min in 8 matches · 3 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. M. Conway · Defender556 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Stoke Cityavailable

  1. E. Galbraith · Midfielder720 min in 8 matches · 3 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. V. Johansson · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. B. Wilmot · Defender675 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Bolton the most probability, 5.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Bolton · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Stoke City · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Stoke City · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Bolton +1.2, draw -0.5, Stoke City -0.7 points (early pre-match).
    5 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (611 → 1,631), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Stoke City. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 33.8%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.085, Brier 0.667 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Bolton43.3
Stoke City50.0
Bolton — 43.395% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 17% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 42% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 70% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Stoke City — 50.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 15% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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