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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Samsunspor v Konyaspor

SamsunsporA. Sekongo 39′
1–0FT · HT 1–0
Konyaspor
Where to watch

· Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: G. Hasova
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun
  • Referee: G. Hasova
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Samsunspor⁩ win. The model gave it 42.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.211 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.38 – 1.11⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.66 – 0.96⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 8.3%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 07 Nov, 12:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 6 Nov on 1,019 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 13:00Kick-off
  2. 14′Yellow card · SamsunsporS. Onur
  3. 39′Goal · SamsunsporA. Sekongo · (assist T. Coulibaly)
  4. 40′Yellow card · KonyasporA. Masuaku
  5. 46′Substitution · KonyasporY. Andzouana on · U. Yazğılı off
  6. 46′Substitution · KonyasporM. Jevtović on · R. Tóth off
  7. 61′Substitution · KonyasporJ. Muleka on · M. Mohamed off
  8. 61′Substitution · KonyasporE. Destan on · D. Gonçalves off
  9. 72′Substitution · SamsunsporE. Tavsan on · M. Bayo off
  10. 72′Substitution · SamsunsporJ. Assoumou on · A. Sousa off
  11. 77′Substitution · KonyasporE. Bardhi on · E. Colley off
  12. 78′Substitution · SamsunsporO. Ohlenschlaeger on · A. Sekongo off
  13. 86′VAR · Konyaspor · Card cancelledE. Destan
  14. 88′Yellow card · KonyasporE. Destan
  15. 90+6′Yellow card · SamsunsporE. Tavsan
  16. 90+6′Yellow card · SamsunsporJ. Mendes
  17. 90+3′Substitution · SamsunsporG. Guarino on · T. Coulibaly off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 1Blocked shots0
  • 2Corners3
  • 0.66Expected goals (xG)0.96
  • 12Fouls13
  • 1Offsides4
  • 79%Pass accuracy84%
  • 408Passes443
  • 321Accurate passes373
  • 47%Possession53%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 1Saves2
  • 6Shots7
  • 2Shots off target6
  • 3Shots on target1
  • 3Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Samsunspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Bayazit906.600––0
E. Watt906.300–10
I. Drapiński906.600––1
J. Mendes906.900––0
L. Tomasson907.200––2
S. Onur907.3001–3
S. Eraković907.200––1
T. Coulibaly897.701124
A. Sekongo788.2102–1
A. Sousa727.2001–2
M. Bayo726.300–22
E. Tavsan186.500––1
J. Assoumou186.300––1
O. Ohlenschlaeger126.700––1
G. Guarino1–00––0
Konyaspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Masuaku906.300––1
B. Han Güngördü907.200––0
C. Awaziem906.9001–1
J. Dompé907.200–41
M. İbrahimoğlu906.600––1
R. Baniya906.7001–1
E. Colley776.5001–0
D. Gonçalves616.500––0
M. Mohamed616.6001–1
M. Jevtović456.700––0
R. Tóth456.300–10
U. Yazğılı455.900––0
Y. Andzouana457.300–12
E. Destan296.2001–0
J. Muleka296.9002–1
E. Bardhi136.600––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Samsunspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Sekongo0.480.051.28
A. Sousa0.150.04–
T. Coulibaly0.050.110.06
S. Onur0.020.03–
B. Bayazit–0.00–
E. Tavsan–0.00–
E. Watt–0.03–
I. Drapiński–0.00–
J. Assoumou–0.00–
J. Mendes–0.00–
M. Bayo–0.04–
S. Eraković–0.00–
Konyaspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Muleka0.250.01–
R. Baniya0.180.01–
E. Destan0.160.00–
E. Colley0.110.03–
C. Awaziem0.090.00–
M. Mohamed0.020.000.04
A. Masuaku–0.02–
B. Han Güngördü–0.01–
D. Gonçalves–0.00–
E. Bardhi–0.03–
J. Dompé–0.50–
M. Jevtović–0.00–
M. İbrahimoğlu–0.02–
R. Tóth–0.01–
U. Yazğılı–0.00–
Y. Andzouana–0.48–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Konyaspor4-2-3-1

  1. 13B. Han Güngördü (c)7.2
  1. 5U. Yazğılı5.9
  2. 22R. Baniya6.7
  3. 15C. Awaziem6.9
  4. 26A. Masuaku6.3
  1. 66R. Tóth6.3
  2. 77M. İbrahimoğlu6.6
  1. 19E. Colley6.5
  2. 7D. Gonçalves6.5
  3. 91J. Dompé7.2
  1. 42M. Mohamed6.6
  1. 18M. Bayo6.3
  1. 77A. Sousa7.2
  2. 42A. Sekongo8.2
  3. 10T. Coulibaly7.7
  1. 8S. Onur7.3
  2. 4E. Watt6.3
  1. 17L. Tomasson (c)7.2
  2. 3I. Drapiński6.6
  3. 16S. Eraković7.2
  4. 2J. Mendes6.9
  1. 25B. Bayazit6.6

Samsunspor4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Samsunspor · Bench

Coach: Nenad Bjelica

Konyaspor · Bench

Coach: Ilhan Palut

Key players

Samsunsporavailable

  1. L. Tomasson · Midfielder900 min in 10 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Mendes · Midfielder882 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. O. Kocuk · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Konyasporavailable

  1. M. İbrahimoğlu · Midfielder864 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. D. Türüç · Midfielder780 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. J. Muleka · Forward777 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Samsunspor the most probability, 12.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Samsunspor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Konyaspor · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Konyaspor · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Samsunspor -0.1, draw 0.0, Konyaspor +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,011 → 1,006), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Samsunspor +0.9, draw -0.8, Konyaspor -0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 6 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,006 → 1,019), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 2 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Samsunspor. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 42.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.866, Brier 0.503 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Samsunspor20.5
Konyaspor38.1
Samsunspor — 20.595% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and underlying team strength.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 21% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Konyaspor — 38.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 21% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 07 Nov, 12:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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