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Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Aarhus v Egnatia

AarhusJ. Bogere 49′
1–1FT · HT 0–1
EgnatiaI. Gruda 13′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: A. Culina
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: A. Culina
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 25.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.138 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.48 – 1.35⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.03 – 0.79⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.3%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.5%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 22 Oct, 19:45 UK time, 14 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 21 Oct on 19,965 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 3′Red card · AarhusE. Kahl
  3. 11′Yellow card · EgnatiaA. Yago
  4. 12′Substitution · AarhusT. Molgaard on · C. McCowatt off
  5. 13′Goal · EgnatiaI. Gruda · (assist D. Adjessa)
  6. 16′Yellow card · EgnatiaA. Kryeziu
  7. 39′Yellow card · AarhusK. Arnstad
  8. 46′Substitution · AarhusD. Grétarsson on · F. Tingager off
  9. 46′Substitution · AarhusJ. Bogere on · J. Serra off
  10. 49′Goal · AarhusJ. Bogere · (assist S. Jørgensen)
  11. 54′Substitution · EgnatiaE. Ndreca on · A. Yago off
  12. 54′Substitution · EgnatiaF. Medeiros on · A. Kryeziu off
  13. 63′Substitution · EgnatiaG. Smajli on · G. Jaime off
  14. 63′Substitution · EgnatiaN. Ajetovikj on · A. Albanese off
  15. 66′Substitution · AarhusF. Emmery on · J. Andersen off
  16. 72′Yellow card · EgnatiaE. Bitri
  17. 83′Substitution · AarhusT. Bech on · S. Jørgensen off
  18. 87′Substitution · EgnatiaI. Diabaté on · K. Loukili off
  19. 90+3′Yellow card · EgnatiaI. Diabaté

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 5Corners4
  • 1.03Expected goals (xG)0.79
  • 11Fouls14
  • 0Offsides2
  • 73%Pass accuracy87%
  • 286Passes570
  • 209Accurate passes498
  • 34%Possession66%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 6Saves1
  • 9Shots13
  • 5Shots off target5
  • 2Shots on target7
  • 1Yellow cards4

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Aarhus
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Rösler906.7–02––
J. Hansen906.9–0–––
K. Arnstad906.9–0–21
M. Solbakken906.2–0––1
R. Carstensen906.9–0–24
S. Jørgensen836.9–121–
T. Molgaard787.2–0––3
J. Andersen666.3–0–––
D. Grétarsson456.9–0––1
F. Tingager456.3–0––1
J. Bogere457.310222
J. Serra456.7–0––1
F. Emmery246.5–0–2–
C. McCowatt126.5–0–––
T. Bech116.5–01––
E. Kahl33.0–0–––
Egnatia
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Aleksi907.5–0213
D. Adjessa906.6–1111
E. Sota907.5–0––1
E. Bitri907.2–0––1
I. Gruda908.0105–2
M. Dajsinani906.2–0–––
K. Loukili877.2–0–13
A. Albanese636.7–0––1
G. Jaime637.5–0–12
A. Yago546.6–02–2
A. Kryeziu546.6–01–1
E. Ndreca366.9–0–––
F. Medeiros366.7–0111
G. Smajli277.3–0–23
N. Ajetovikj277.2–0–1–
I. Diabaté3––0–––

xG (Highlightly)limited

Aarhus
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Bogere0.690.030.27
T. Bech0.130.01–
S. Jørgensen0.110.240.18
C. Rösler0.090.01–
C. McCowatt–0.00–
D. Grétarsson–0.00–
F. Emmery–0.02–
F. Tingager–0.01–
J. Andersen–0.04–
J. Serra–0.01–
J. Hansen–0.00–
K. Arnstad–0.09–
M. Solbakken–0.02–
R. Carstensen–0.10–
Egnatia
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Gruda0.350.010.40
A. Yago0.190.020.36
D. Adjessa0.090.27–
A. Aleksi0.070.070.03
F. Medeiros0.060.06–
A. Kryeziu0.030.050.05
A. Albanese–0.02–
E. Ndreca–0.08–
E. Sota–0.03–
E. Bitri–0.02–
G. Smajli–0.16–
G. Jaime–0.25–
K. Loukili–0.10–
M. Dajsinani–0.00–
N. Ajetovikj–0.02–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 3 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Egnatia4-3-1-2

  1. 98M. Dajsinani6.2
  1. 22G. Jaime7.5
  2. 33E. Bitri7.2
  3. 28E. Sota7.5
  4. 29A. Yago6.6
  1. 17A. Kryeziu6.6
  2. 6A. Aleksi (c)7.5
  3. 20K. Loukili7.2
  1. 10A. Albanese6.7
  1. 2D. Adjessa6.6
  2. 77I. Gruda8.0
  1. 13J. Serra6.7
  1. 18C. McCowatt6.5
  2. 8S. Jørgensen6.9
  1. 26J. Andersen6.3
  2. 7M. Solbakken6.2
  3. 10K. Arnstad (c)6.9
  4. 29R. Carstensen6.9
  1. 19E. Kahl3.0
  2. 5F. Tingager6.3
  3. 25C. Rösler6.7
  1. 1J. Hansen6.9

Aarhus3-4-2-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Aarhus · Bench

Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Egnatia · Bench

Coach: Nevil Dede

Key players

Aarhusavailable

  1. C. McCowatt · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. Rösler · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Andersen · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Egnatiaavailable

  1. A. Kryeziu · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. A. Yago · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. A. Aleksi · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Aarhus the most probability, 6.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Aarhus · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Egnatia · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Egnatia · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Aarhus -2.7, draw +1.2, Egnatia +1.5 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Aarhus +0.4, draw -0.3, Egnatia -0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (15 Oct 2026 → 21 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,614 → 19,965), history from (11 Oct 2023 → 17 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 25.9%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.352, Brier 0.826 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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