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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Midtjylland v Ajax

MidtjyllandF. Etim 28′
1–6FT · HT 1–1
AjaxT. Arokodare 9′, 52′ · O. Wijndal 59′ · D. Klaassen 67′ · O. Gloukh 74′ · M. Leonardo 82′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Paweł Raczkowski
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: Paweł Raczkowski
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Ajax⁩ win. The model gave it 32.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.313 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.55 – 1.35⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.68 – 3.45⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 6⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.9%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.0%

⁦1–6⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 05 Nov, 17:25 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 4 Nov on 20,026 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 9′Goal · AjaxT. Arokodare · (assist O. Gloukh)
  3. 28′Goal · MidtjyllandF. Etim
  4. 35′Yellow card · MidtjyllandK. Wätjen
  5. 43′Yellow card · MidtjyllandK. Wätjen
  6. 43′Red card · MidtjyllandK. Wätjen
  7. 45+1′Yellow card · MidtjyllandD. Castillo
  8. 46′Substitution · MidtjyllandD. Beni on · C. Gue-Sung off
  9. 46′Substitution · MidtjyllandP. Bravo on · D. Castillo off
  10. 46′Substitution · MidtjyllandJ. Emefile on · F. Etim off
  11. 52′Goal · AjaxT. Arokodare · (assist A. Ouazane)
  12. 59′Goal · AjaxO. Wijndal · (assist T. Arokodare)
  13. 60′Substitution · MidtjyllandS. Iheanacho on · S. Johannesen off
  14. 67′Goal · AjaxD. Klaassen · (assist O. Wijndal)
  15. 68′Substitution · MidtjyllandH. Hyun-Seok on · P. Billing off
  16. 68′Substitution · AjaxD. Blind on · O. Wijndal off
  17. 68′Substitution · AjaxR. Bounida on · A. Ouazane off
  18. 70′Substitution · AjaxM. Abdalla on · Y. Baas off
  19. 70′Substitution · AjaxM. Leonardo on · T. Arokodare off
  20. 74′Goal · AjaxO. Gloukh · (assist R. Bounida)
  21. 75′Substitution · AjaxJ. Torrents on · D. Klaassen off
  22. 82′Goal · AjaxM. Leonardo · (assist O. Gloukh)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 4Blocked shots4
  • 1Corners8
  • 1.68Expected goals (xG)3.45
  • 10Fouls8
  • 1Offsides0
  • 75%Pass accuracy92%
  • 305Passes728
  • 230Accurate passes667
  • 29%Possession71%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 4Saves3
  • 10Shots24
  • 2Shots off target9
  • 4Shots on target11
  • 3Yellow cards0

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Midtjylland
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
M. B. Sorensen906.900––1
N. Bakker904.600––0
O. Diao905.500––0
R. Kristensen906.900–14
V. Bak906.300––2
P. Billing686.300––2
S. Johannesen606.900–20
C. Gue-Sung456.900–10
D. Beni455.900110
D. Castillo457.0002–1
F. Etim457.2102–1
J. Emefile456.2001–0
P. Bravo456.500––2
K. Wätjen435.300––0
S. Iheanacho306.200––0
H. Hyun-Seok226.200––0
Ajax
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Janse907.900–10
J. Mokio906.700311
L. Rosa907.700–22
M. ter Stegen906.900––0
O. Gloukh9010.012260
T. Kehrer908.700–11
D. Klaassen756.9103–0
T. Arokodare708.221611
Y. Baas708.600231
A. Ouazane686.901–11
O. Wijndal687.911241
D. Blind227.300––0
R. Bounida227.201110
M. Leonardo206.6101–0
M. Abdalla206.500–10
J. Torrents156.900––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Midtjylland
PlayerxGxAxGOT
F. Etim1.400.001.00
D. Castillo0.120.000.19
C. Gue-Sung0.050.00–
K. Wätjen0.040.00–
S. Johannesen0.030.15–
D. Beni0.010.060.04
H. Hyun-Seok–0.00–
N. Bakker–0.00–
O. Diao–0.00–
P. Bravo–0.01–
P. Billing–0.01–
R. Kristensen–0.39–
S. Iheanacho–0.00–
V. Bak–0.00–
Ajax
PlayerxGxAxGOT
T. Arokodare1.000.021.09
D. Klaassen0.790.050.97
M. Leonardo0.760.000.99
J. Mokio0.540.270.15
Y. Baas0.140.51–
O. Gloukh0.081.400.60
O. Wijndal0.040.570.32
R. Bounida0.040.11–
A. Ouazane–0.22–
D. Blind–0.08–
D. Janse–0.08–
J. Torrents–0.01–
L. Rosa–0.51–
M. ter Stegen–0.00–
M. Abdalla–0.03–
T. Kehrer–0.40–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Ajax4-2-3-1

  1. 1M. ter Stegen6.9
  1. 2L. Rosa7.7
  2. 6T. Kehrer8.7
  3. 36D. Janse7.9
  4. 5O. Wijndal7.9
  1. 18D. Klaassen (c)6.9
  2. 15Y. Baas8.6
  1. 68A. Ouazane6.9
  2. 24J. Mokio6.7
  3. 10O. Gloukh10.0
  1. 99T. Arokodare8.2
  1. 90F. Etim7.2
  2. 10C. Gue-Sung6.9
  1. 21D. Castillo7.0
  1. 27S. Johannesen6.9
  2. 8P. Billing6.3
  3. 29K. Wätjen5.3
  4. 5R. Kristensen (c)6.9
  1. 55V. Bak6.3
  2. 22M. B. Sorensen6.9
  3. 4O. Diao5.5
  1. 25N. Bakker4.6

Midtjylland3-4-1-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Midtjylland · Bench

Coach: Mike Tullberg

Ajax · Bench

Coach: Michel

Key players

Midtjyllandavailable

  1. R. Kristensen · Defender545 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists
  2. M. B. Sorensen · Defender545 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. D. Castillo · Midfielder366 min in 5 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 6 matches played.

Ajaxavailable

  1. A. Bouwman · Defender727 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. D. Klaassen · Midfielder474 min in 7 matches · 5 goals · 0 assists
  3. Y. Regeer · Midfielder435 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Midtjylland the most probability, 8.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Midtjylland · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Ajax · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Ajax · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 29 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 20,024), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 25 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Midtjylland -0.1, draw 0.0, Ajax +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (29 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,024 → 19,987), history from (25 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Midtjylland -0.1, draw 0.0, Ajax +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,987 → 19,937), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · Midtjylland +0.1, draw +0.1, Ajax -0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 4 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,937 → 20,026), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 31 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–6: Ajax. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 32.8%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.115, Brier 0.691 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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