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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Norwich v Portsmouth

Norwich
0–1FT · HT 0–0
PortsmouthM. Milovanović 51′
Where to watch

· Carrow Road, Norwich

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Gavin Ward
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Carrow Road, Norwich
  • Referee: Gavin Ward
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Portsmouth⁩ win. The model gave it 22.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.454 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.07 – 1.27⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.29 – 1.19⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.6%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.6%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 6.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 6.2%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 17 Oct, 14:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 16 Oct on 1,619 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 51′Goal (penalty) · PortsmouthM. Milovanović
  3. 55′Yellow card · PortsmouthM. Milovanović
  4. 64′Yellow card · PortsmouthR. Kavuma-McQueen
  5. 66′Yellow card · NorwichO. Schwartau
  6. 90+3′Yellow card · NorwichD. Yongwa
  7. 90′Yellow card · NorwichM. Kvistgaarden
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Substitution · NorwichD. Yongwa on · B. Chrisene off
  2. 57′Substitution · NorwichL. Mahovo on · A. Brooks off
  3. 57′Substitution · NorwichP. Maghoma on · A. Ben Slimane off
  4. 60′Substitution · PortsmouthE. Adams on · I. Mohamed off
  5. 70′Substitution · PortsmouthO. Bailey on · R. Kavuma-McQueen off
  6. 71′Substitution · PortsmouthT. Shade on · M. Milovanović off
  7. 73′Substitution · NorwichM. Kvistgaarden on · O. Schwartau off
  8. 80′Substitution · PortsmouthT. Devlin on · M. Pack off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 50%Possession50%
  • 0.29Expected goals (xG)1.19

Attack

  • 9Shots9
  • 2Shots on target2
  • 6Shots off target2
  • 1Blocked shots5
  • 1Corners1
  • 4Offsides5
  • 1Saves2

Passing

  • 407Passes412
  • 293Accurate passes307
  • 72%Pass accuracy75%

Discipline

  • 13Fouls13
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Norwich
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Grimshaw906.300000
J. Stacey907.000008
J. Wright905.900010
J. Córdoba907.200002
J. Makama906.700101
P. Mattsson906.600122
R. McConville906.600211
O. Schwartau736.300000
A. Brooks576.200011
A. Ben Slimane576.300202
B. Chrisene456.900000
D. Yongwa456.200003
L. Mahovo336.600110
P. Maghoma336.600020
M. Kvistgaarden176.300100
Portsmouth
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Kamara907.300121
A. Segečić906.200100
J. Meghoma906.600101
M. Dia907.200002
N. Schmid907.000000
R. Poole907.600001
Z. Swanson907.500103
M. Pack807.200002
M. Milovanović716.910100
R. Kavuma-McQueen706.500001
I. Mohamed606.900013
E. Adams307.200004
O. Bailey206.200000
T. Shade196.500000
T. Devlin106.600000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Portsmouth4-2-3-1

  1. 1Schmid7.0
  1. 22Swanson7.5
  2. 5Poole7.6
  3. 55Dia7.2
  4. 16Meghoma6.6
  1. 7Pack (c)Off 80′7.2
  2. 37MohamedOff 60′6.9
  1. 11Kamara7.3
  2. 10Segečić6.2
  3. 25Kavuma-McQueenBooked 64′ · Off 70′6.5
  1. 29MilovanovićGoal 51′ (pen.) · Booked 55′ · Off 71′6.9
  1. 24Makama6.7
  1. 29SchwartauBooked 66′ · Off 73′6.3
  2. 20Ben SlimaneOff 57′6.3
  3. 11BrooksOff 57′6.2
  1. 7Mattsson (c)6.6
  2. 16Wright5.9
  1. 14ChriseneOff 46′6.9
  2. 33Córdoba7.2
  3. 15McConville6.6
  4. 3Stacey7.0
  1. 32Grimshaw6.3

Norwich4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Norwich · Bench

Coach: Philippe Clement

Portsmouth · Bench

Coach: J. Mousinho

Key players

Norwichavailable

  1. J. Córdoba · Defender874 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. P. Mattsson · Midfielder831 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. V. Kovačević · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsOut · Concussion

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Portsmouthavailable

  1. A. Kamara · Midfielder759 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. A. Segečić · Midfielder746 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Pack · Midfielder654 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Norwich the most probability, 31.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Norwich · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Norwich · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Norwich · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,631 → 1,630), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,630 → 1,619), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 10 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 16 Oct 2026), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 12 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Portsmouth. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 22.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.515, Brier 0.962 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Norwich52.0
Portsmouth34.9
Norwich — 52.095% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Portsmouth — 34.995% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 17% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 17 Oct, 14:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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