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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Gol Gohar v Esteghlal Khuzestan

Gol GoharM. Aliyari 25′ · M. Abbasi 69′ · M. Fakhrian 90′
3–0FT · HT 1–0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Where to watch

· Gol Gohar Sport Complex, Sirjan

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Gol Gohar Sport Complex, Sirjan
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Gol Gohar⁩ win. The model gave it 55.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.105 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.61 – 0.70⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦3 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 14.5%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 13.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.7%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%

⁦3–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.1.0 · v1 computed 01 Oct, 14:15 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 30 Sept on 221 matches since Aug 2025 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 14:15Kick-off
  2. 25′Goal · Gol GoharM. Aliyari · (assist A. Zendehrouh)
  3. 34′Yellow card · Gol GoharM. Goudarzi
  4. 47′Yellow card · Esteghlal KhuzestanS. Bazgir
  5. 53′Yellow card · Gol GoharM. Kor
  6. 65′Substitution · Gol GoharA. Ashouri on · L. Ben Hassine off
  7. 65′Substitution · Gol GoharS. Sahraei on · M. Najjarian off
  8. 69′Goal · Gol GoharM. Abbasi · (assist M. Aliyari)
  9. 88′Yellow card · Gol GoharM. Abbasi
  10. 88′Substitution · Gol GoharM. Fakhrian on · P. Ghazipour off
  11. 88′Substitution · Gol GoharS. Nemati on · M. Abbasi off
  12. 90′Goal · Gol GoharM. Fakhrian · (assist M. Goudarzi)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Gol Gohar

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Esteghlal Khuzestan

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Gol Gohar · Bench

Coach: Seyed Rahmati

Esteghlal Khuzestan · Bench

Not supplied for this match.

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Gol Goharnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Esteghlal Khuzestannot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Gol Gohar the most probability, 24.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Gol Gohar · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Gol Gohar · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Gol Gohar · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–0: Gol Gohar. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 56.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.580, Brier 0.308 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Gol Gohar63.3
Esteghlal Khuzestan40.5
Gol Gohar — 63.375% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, rest, travel and schedule and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 27 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Esteghlal Khuzestan — 40.575% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 28% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 27 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 01 Oct, 14:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.