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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 4

Torreense v Ararat-Armenia

TorreenseJ. Aguirre 13′ · J. Vázquez 90+3′ · M. Drammeh 90+5′
3–2FT · HT 1–1
Ararat-ArmeniaK. Muradyan 41′ · B. R. Wilson Valdez 58′
Where to watch

· Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Milos Milanovic
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
  • Referee: Milos Milanovic
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Torreense⁩ win. The model gave it 46.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.189 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.78 – 1.40⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.90 – 1.49⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.7%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.2%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.0%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 6.6%

⁦3–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 05 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 4 Nov on 20,026 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 13′Goal · TorreenseJ. Aguirre · (assist J. Vázquez)
  3. 22′VAR · Torreense · Card upgraded to redJ. Aguirre
  4. 25′Red card · TorreenseJ. Aguirre
  5. 36′Substitution · TorreenseM. Drammeh on · K. Zoabi off
  6. 41′Goal · Ararat-ArmeniaK. Muradyan · (assist Z. Shaghoyan)
  7. 43′Yellow card · Ararat-ArmeniaB. R. Wilson Valdez
  8. 45+2′Yellow card · Ararat-ArmeniaK. Muradyan
  9. 45+2′Yellow card · TorreenseV. Feltes
  10. 48′Yellow card · Ararat-ArmeniaB. Oliveira
  11. 58′Goal · Ararat-ArmeniaB. R. Wilson Valdez · (assist A. Serobyan)
  12. 66′Substitution · TorreenseL. Quintero on · M. Pozo off
  13. 66′Substitution · TorreenseD. Bruno on · J. Mutombo off
  14. 68′Substitution · Ararat-ArmeniaZ. Banjaqui on · B. Oliveira off
  15. 68′Substitution · Ararat-ArmeniaF. Carlos on · Z. Shaghoyan off
  16. 76′Substitution · TorreenseA. Oudrhiri on · J. Marques off
  17. 76′Substitution · TorreenseJ. María Alcedo on · D. Jean off
  18. 76′Red card · Ararat-ArmeniaJ. Bravim
  19. 79′Substitution · Ararat-ArmeniaA. Nersesyan on · A. Serobyan off
  20. 79′Yellow card · Ararat-ArmeniaA. Nersesyan
  21. 80′Substitution · Ararat-ArmeniaK. Hovhannisyan on · J. Andrés Balanta off
  22. 84′Yellow card · Ararat-ArmeniaF. Carlos
  23. 85′Substitution · Ararat-ArmeniaM. Carlier on · H. Oliveira off
  24. 88′Yellow card · TorreenseM. Drammeh
  25. 90+3′Goal · TorreenseJ. Vázquez · (assist D. Bruno)
  26. 90+5′Goal · TorreenseM. Drammeh

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 1Blocked shots7
  • 4Corners6
  • 1.90Expected goals (xG)1.49
  • 13Fouls11
  • 2Offsides4
  • 333Passes479
  • 274Accurate passes421
  • 42%Possession58%
  • 1Red cards1
  • 6Saves2
  • 12Shots19
  • 6Shots off target4
  • 5Shots on target8
  • 3Yellow cards5

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Torreense
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Alfaro906.600011
J. Vázquez907.911321
L. Paes907.400000
M. Diadie906.200200
V. Feltes906.500000
D. Jean766.100102
J. Marques766.300101
J. Mutombo666.200001
M. Pozo666.400013
M. Drammeh547.410100
K. Zoabi365.900000
J. Aguirre257.010101
D. Bruno246.501020
L. Quintero246.600310
A. Oudrhiri146.000000
J. María Alcedo145.800000
Ararat-Armenia
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Malis906.300001
B. R. Wilson Valdez907.110102
E. Grigoryan906.300102
K. Muradyan906.710210
S. Lima906.200211
H. Oliveira856.600212
J. Andrés Balanta806.700120
A. Serobyan796.501430
J. Bravim765.100000
B. Oliveira686.200320
Z. Shaghoyan687.601142
F. Carlos226.100000
Z. Banjaqui226.000210
A. Nersesyan115.300001
K. Hovhannisyan105.900000
M. Carlier55.900010

xG (Highlightly) available

Torreense
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Aguirre0.570.000.95
J. Vázquez0.330.241.21
L. Quintero0.330.040.02
M. Drammeh0.290.000.36
J. Marques0.090.00–
M. Diadie0.060.03–
A. Oudrhiri0.030.00–
D. Jean0.020.01–
A. Alfaro–0.05–
D. Bruno–0.35–
J. Mutombo–0.01–
J. María Alcedo–0.00–
K. Zoabi–0.00–
L. Paes–0.00–
M. Pozo–0.08–
V. Feltes–0.01–
Ararat-Armenia
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Serobyan0.580.140.05
K. Muradyan0.360.070.37
S. Lima0.270.040.22
Z. Shaghoyan0.130.30–
H. Oliveira0.060.120.15
Z. Banjaqui0.050.260.01
B. R. Wilson Valdez0.040.020.65
J. Andrés Balanta0.030.06–
E. Grigoryan0.020.11–
A. Malis–0.03–
A. Nersesyan–0.00–
F. Carlos–0.01–
J. Bravim–0.00–
K. Hovhannisyan–0.00–
M. Carlier–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Ararat-Armenia4-2-3-1

  1. 98J. Bravim5.1
  1. 2H. Oliveira6.6
  2. 43B. R. Wilson Valdez7.1
  3. 47A. Malis6.3
  4. 16E. Grigoryan6.3
  1. 19K. Muradyan6.7
  2. 8J. Andrés Balanta6.7
  1. 77A. Serobyan6.5
  2. 70B. Oliveira6.2
  3. 7Z. Shaghoyan7.6
  1. 91S. Lima6.2
  1. 14J. Aguirre7.0
  1. 7D. Jean6.1
  2. 19K. Zoabi5.9
  3. 11M. Pozo6.4
  1. 8A. Alfaro6.6
  2. 33J. Marques6.3
  1. 23J. Vázquez7.9
  2. 4V. Feltes6.5
  3. 5M. Diadie6.2
  4. 45J. Mutombo6.2
  1. 1L. Paes7.4

Torreense4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Torreense · Bench

Coach: Joao Nuno

Ararat-Armenia · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Torreenseavailable

  1. A. Oudrhiri · Midfielder270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. V. Feltes · Defender270 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. M. Diadie · Defender270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Ararat-Armeniaavailable

  1. B. R. Wilson Valdez · Defender450 min in 5 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Bravim · Goalkeeper450 min in 5 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. E. Grigoryan · Defender433 min in 5 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 5 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Torreense the most probability, 16.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Torreense · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours neither side · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours neither side · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 29 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 20,024), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 25 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Torreense -0.1, draw 0.0, Ararat-Armenia +0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (29 Oct 2026 → 4 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (20,024 → 20,026), history from (25 Oct 2023 → 31 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–2: Torreense. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 46.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.770, Brier 0.435 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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