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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Foolad v Mes Shahr-e Babak

Foolad
2–1FT · HT 1–0
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Foolad⁩ win. The model gave it 79.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.021 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.40 – 0.42⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 17.2%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 13.8%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.5%
  • ⁦4–0⁩ 8.3%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.8%

⁦2–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.1.0 · v1 computed 01 Oct, 16:30 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 30 Sept on 221 matches since Aug 2025 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 16:30Kick-off
  2. 36′Own goal · FooladM. Naderpour
  3. 45′Yellow card · Mes Shahr-e BabakM. Azhir
  4. 46′Yellow card · FooladA. Jolani
  5. 46′Substitution · FooladA. Saedi on · M. Ghoreishi off
  6. 51′Goal · FooladA. Jolani · (assist A. Akbarzadeh)
  7. 60′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakH. Eftekhari on · M. Abdollahi off
  8. 60′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakO. Nafez on · M. Tajik off
  9. 68′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakG. Pourya on · A. Karbalaei off
  10. 70′Goal · Mes Shahr-e BabakZ. Niknafs
  11. 71′Substitution · FooladA. Bagheri on · Y. Mazraeh off
  12. 71′Substitution · FooladM. Mohammadi on · M. Sarlak off
  13. 75′Yellow card · Mes Shahr-e BabakM. Mohammadi
  14. 78′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakA. Enayatzadeh on · M. Raoufi Manesh off
  15. 81′Substitution · FooladA. Attar on · A. Jolani off
  16. 81′Substitution · FooladG. Latifi on · E. Mahrooghi off
  17. 83′Yellow card · Mes Shahr-e BabakM. Azhir
  18. 83′Red card · Mes Shahr-e BabakM. Azhir
  19. 83′Yellow card · FooladF. Ahmadzadeh

Match summary

Written by a language model from the match record, not by a person. Not the founder's analysis, not the statistical forecast, not the community's view.

Foolad FC took an early lead in their Persian Gulf Pro League clash with Mes Shahr-e Babak, with the opening goal coming in the 37th minute from an own goal by M. Naderpour. The first half ended with Foolad ahead 1-0, and they extended their lead in the second period when A. Jolani scored in the 60th minute. Mes Shahr-e Babak pulled one back late on, with Z. Niknafs finding the net in the 78th minute, but Foolad held on for the 2-1 victory.

Foolad FC entered the match with a mixed run of form, having won their last home game against Fajr Sepasi and also securing a 3-0 away win over Sanat Naft, though they had lost 2-0 to Kheybar Khorramabad in their previous away outing. Mes Shahr-e Babak, meanwhile, had struggled for consistency, drawing their last four matches, including a 2-1 defeat to Malavan in their previous game.

The statistical model forecasted a strong chance of a Foolad win, assigning a 79.8% probability to their victory before the match. The game reflected that prediction, as Foolad dominated the early stages and maintained control despite the late setback.

Model ministral-14b-latest · version 1 · written · Written from timeline, forecast

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Foolad

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Mes Shahr-e Babak

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Foolad · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Mes Shahr-e Babak · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Fooladnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Mes Shahr-e Babaknot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Foolad the most probability, 62.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Foolad · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Foolad · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Foolad · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Foolad. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 79.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.225, Brier 0.071 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Foolad76.2
Mes Shahr-e Babak19.3
Foolad — 76.275% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 30 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 56% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Mes Shahr-e Babak — 19.375% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 25 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 01 Oct, 16:30 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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