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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

La Louvière v Zulte Waregem

La LouvièreN. Gillot 37′, 73′ · L. Rousseau 84′
3–0FT · HT 1–0
Zulte Waregem
Where to watch

· Easi Arena, La Louviere

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: M. Ledda
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Easi Arena, La Louviere
  • Referee: M. Ledda
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨La Louvière⁩ win. The model gave it 27.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.368 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.13 – 1.52⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.87 – 1.00⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.6%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.3%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 8.2%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.6%

⁦3–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 24 Oct, 19:32 UK time, 12 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 23 Oct on 927 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 5′Yellow card · La LouvièreM. Wade
  3. 37′Goal · La LouvièreN. Gillot · (assist Z. Gruber)
  4. 45′VAR · La Louvière · Goal disallowedM. Isah
  5. 46′Yellow card · La LouvièreM. Isah
  6. 59′Yellow card · La LouvièreS. Gourville
  7. 73′Goal · La LouvièreN. Gillot · (assist M. Courcoul)
  8. 83′Yellow card · Zulte WaregemA. Ementa
  9. 84′Goal · La LouvièreL. Rousseau
  10. 90+1′Yellow card · La LouvièreM. Courcoul
Substitutions (8)
  1. 62′Substitution · Zulte WaregemT. Claes on · S. Ujka off
  2. 62′Substitution · Zulte WaregemT. Hedl on · O. Niang off
  3. 66′Substitution · La LouvièreL. Rousseau on · Z. Gruber off
  4. 72′Substitution · Zulte WaregemN. Mituljikić on · I. Átrok off
  5. 77′Substitution · La LouvièreM. Boukamir on · M. Wade off
  6. 77′Substitution · La LouvièreA. Tajaouart on · I. Coulibaly off
  7. 77′Substitution · La LouvièreE. Filet on · M. Isah off
  8. 83′Substitution · Zulte WaregemH. Akpa-Chukwu on · B. De Jaegere off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 44%Possession56%
  • 1.87Expected goals (xG)1.00

Attack

  • 15Shots15
  • 8Shots on target6
  • 4Shots off target5
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 5Corners3
  • 4Offsides0
  • 6Saves5

Passing

  • 342Passes450
  • 252Accurate passes335
  • 74%Pass accuracy74%

Discipline

  • 21Fouls11
  • 4Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

La Louvière
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Lamego907.200––2
M. Hernán Peano908.500––0
M. Courcoul906.901122
N. Gillot909.520313
S. Gourville907.600––0
T. Lutonda907.000123
W. Faye906.300––0
I. Coulibaly776.700112
M. Wade776.2001–3
M. Isah776.200–10
Z. Gruber666.601120
L. Rousseau247.710210
A. Tajaouart136.900–20
E. Filet136.9002–0
M. Boukamir136.9001–1
Zulte Waregem
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Ementa906.300–41
B. Gabriël905.900––0
E. Lofolomo907.700––6
J. Kiilerich906.3001–0
L. Lemoine906.200––1
M. Aké906.3004–0
Y. Mbodji906.900137
B. De Jaegere836.300––3
I. Átrok726.7001–2
O. Niang626.5001–0
S. Ujka626.200211
T. Claes286.600–10
T. Hedl286.200–10
N. Mituljikić186.9001–1
H. Akpa-Chukwu116.200––0

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

La Louvière
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Hernán Peano–––
Zulte Waregem
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Gabriël–––

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Zulte Waregem4-2-3-1

  1. 13Gabriël5.9
  1. 45De JaegereOff 83′6.3
  2. 4Lemoine (c)6.2
  3. 5Kiilerich6.3
  4. 15Mbodji6.9
  1. 36UjkaOff 62′6.2
  2. 6Lofolomo7.7
  1. 22NiangOff 62′6.5
  2. 21ÁtrokOff 72′6.7
  3. 11Aké6.3
  1. 18EmentaBooked 83′6.3
  1. 11IsahBooked 46′ · Off 77′6.2
  2. 30GruberOff 66′6.6
  1. 48CoulibalyOff 77′6.7
  2. 10WadeBooked 5′ · Off 77′6.2
  3. 29CourcoulBooked 90+1′6.9
  1. 5Lutonda7.0
  2. 25Lamego7.2
  3. 22GourvilleBooked 59′7.6
  4. 4Faye6.3
  5. 3GillotGoal 37′ · Goal 73′9.5
  1. 21Hernán Peano (c)8.5

La Louvière5-3-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

La Louvière · Bench

Coach: Edward Still

Zulte Waregem · Bench

Coach: Michael Beale

Key players

La Louvièreavailable

  1. M. Hernán Peano · Goalkeeper712 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. S. Delos · Defender704 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. I. Coulibaly · Midfielder656 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Zulte Waregemavailable

  1. J. Kiilerich · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. L. Lemoine · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. T. Claes · Midfielder708 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Zulte Waregem the most probability, 18.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Zulte Waregem · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Zulte Waregem · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours La Louvière · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · La Louvière +0.9, draw -0.1, Zulte Waregem -0.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (918 → 927), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–0: La Louvière. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 27.6%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.289, Brier 0.806 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

La Louvière24.6
Zulte Waregem58.4
La Louvière — 24.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 14 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Zulte Waregem — 58.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 14 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 49% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 24 Oct, 19:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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