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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven

ADO Den Haag
2–1FT · HT 0–1
PSV Eindhoven
Where to watch

· Bingoal Stadion, The Hague

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Bingoal Stadion, The Hague
  • Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨ADO Den Haag⁩ win. The model gave it 5.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.812 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.97 – 3.69⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.39 – 1.05⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–3⁩ 7.9%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦0–4⁩ 7.3%
  • ⁦1–4⁩ 7.1%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 6.4%

⁦2–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 12 Oct, 15:35 UK time, 4 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 915 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:30Kick-off
  2. 21′Goal · PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans · (assist G. Til)
  3. 38′Yellow card · PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans
  4. 42′Yellow card · ADO Den HaagS. Sylla
  5. 43′Red card · PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans
  6. 55′Goal · ADO Den HaagJ. Kilo · (assist Y. Eduardo)
  7. 69′Yellow card · ADO Den HaagO. Raterink
  8. 73′Yellow card · ADO Den HaagP. Mulder
  9. 90+3′Own goal · ADO Den HaagM. Kovář
Substitutions (9)
  1. 40′Substitution · PSV EindhovenM. Bro Hansen on · G. Til off
  2. 45′Substitution · ADO Den HaagM. Šín on · J. Žambůrek off
  3. 45′Substitution · ADO Den HaagO. Raterink on · S. Sylla off
  4. 45′Substitution · PSV EindhovenR. Flamingo on · D. Man off
  5. 45′Substitution · ADO Den HaagJ. Hawkins on · L. Wilhelm off
  6. 58′Substitution · PSV EindhovenA. Bouhamdi on · A. Santos off
  7. 66′Substitution · ADO Den HaagD. van Mieghem on · J. Bal off
  8. 69′Substitution · PSV EindhovenS. Cornecion on · Mauro Júnior off
  9. 70′Substitution · ADO Den HaagA. Pozo on · J. Jensen-Abbew off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 1.39Expected goals (xG)1.05

Attack

  • 16Shots15
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 8Shots off target7
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 3Corners2
  • 1Offsides5
  • 3Saves3

Passing

  • 473Passes428
  • 403Accurate passes361
  • 85%Pass accuracy84%

Discipline

  • 20Fouls9
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

ADO Den Haag
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Rottier906.300200
J. Kilo908.210123
K. Nikièma906.500000
M. Waem906.900113
P. Mulder906.600210
Y. Eduardo906.501210
J. Jensen-Abbew706.200001
J. Bal666.300110
J. Hawkins456.300311
J. Žambůrek456.700214
L. Wilhelm456.700000
M. Šín455.900001
O. Raterink455.900001
S. Sylla456.000001
D. van Mieghem247.200040
A. Pozo206.2–0–1–
PSV Eindhoven
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Obispo906.900020
F. Kostić906.900032
K. Sano906.300002
L. Geertruida906.600003
M. Kovář905.600000
S. Dest906.600210
Mauro Júnior696.300013
A. Santos586.400201
M. Bro Hansen506.700301
D. Man456.000100
R. Flamingo455.900100
S. Mijnans437.110202
G. Til407.501131
A. Bouhamdi326.800301
S. Cornecion216.100010

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

PSV Eindhoven4-2-3-1

  1. 32KovářOwn goal 90+3′5.6
  1. 8Dest6.6
  2. 2Geertruida6.6
  3. 4Obispo6.9
  4. 18Kostić6.9
  1. 17Mauro JúniorOff 69′6.3
  2. 24Sano6.3
  1. 27ManOff 45′6.0
  2. 20TilOff 40′7.5
  3. 35SantosOff 58′6.4
  1. 21MijnansGoal 21′ · Booked 38′ · Sent off 43′7.1
  1. 9BalOff 66′6.3
  2. 46Eduardo6.5
  1. 11Rottier6.3
  2. 25KiloGoal 55′8.2
  3. 8ŽambůrekOff 45′6.7
  1. 18SyllaBooked 42′ · Off 45′6.0
  2. 4Waem6.9
  3. 3MulderBooked 73′6.6
  4. 22WilhelmOff 45′6.7
  5. 5Jensen-AbbewOff 70′6.2
  1. 1Nikièma6.5

ADO Den Haag5-3-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

ADO Den Haag · Bench

Coach: Robin Peter

PSV Eindhoven · Bench

Coach: P. Bosz

Key players

ADO Den Haagavailable

  1. J. Kilo · Midfielder720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. K. Nikièma · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Mulder · Defender703 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

PSV Eindhovenavailable

  1. M. Kovář · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Obispo · Defender682 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. Mauro Júnior · Defender680 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives PSV Eindhoven the most probability, 75.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours PSV Eindhoven · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours PSV Eindhoven · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours ADO Den Haag · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (920 → 919), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (919 → 915), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: ADO Den Haag. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 5.1%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 2.968, Brier 1.634 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

ADO Den Haag18.4
PSV Eindhoven92.8
ADO Den Haag — 18.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

PSV Eindhoven — 92.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 15:35 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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