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Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Club Brugge v Sint-Truiden

Club BruggeN. Tresoldi 41′, 43′, 75′
3–2FT · HT 2–0
Sint-TruidenI. Sebaoui 55′ · S. Taniguchi 90′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: N. Verboomen
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: N. Verboomen
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Club Brugge⁩ win. The model gave it 73.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.043 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.70 – 1.00⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.67 – 1.81⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.0%

⁦3–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 25 Oct, 14:33 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 24 Oct on 926 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 41′Goal · Club BruggeN. Tresoldi · (assist K. Sabbe)
  3. 43′Goal · Club BruggeN. Tresoldi · (assist C. Forbs)
  4. 46′Substitution · Club BruggeM. Diakhon on · J. Virgili off
  5. 53′VAR · Sint-Truiden · Penalty confirmedS. Taniguchi
  6. 55′Penalty · Sint-TruidenI. Sebaoui
  7. 63′Substitution · Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael on · J. Pupe off
  8. 63′Substitution · Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle on · S. Baždar off
  9. 69′Substitution · Sint-TruidenR. Merlen on · N. Ishiwatari off
  10. 69′Substitution · Sint-TruidenK. Matsuzawa on · S. Shinkawa off
  11. 70′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael
  12. 75′Goal · Club BruggeN. Tresoldi · (assist C. Forbs)
  13. 76′Substitution · Sint-TruidenA. Muja on · N. Mbuku off
  14. 79′Substitution · Club BruggeH. Siquet on · K. Sabbe off
  15. 79′Substitution · Club BruggeF. Lemaréchal on · H. Vetlesen off
  16. 86′Substitution · Club BruggeR. Vermant on · N. Tresoldi off
  17. 88′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenR. Merlen
  18. 90+5′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael
  19. 90+5′Red card · Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael
  20. 90+1′Substitution · Club BruggeM. Dams on · J. Seys off
  21. 90′Goal · Sint-TruidenS. Taniguchi · (assist F. Soelle Soelle)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots1
  • 4Corners4
  • 2.67Expected goals (xG)1.81
  • 4Fouls10
  • 2Offsides0
  • 87%Pass accuracy84%
  • 595Passes537
  • 516Accurate passes452
  • 53%Possession47%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 1Saves3
  • 12Shots8
  • 4Shots off target4
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Club Brugge
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Mechele906.300––2
C. Forbs909.302151
F. Potts907.700––5
H. Vanaken906.700110
J. Spileers906.0001–0
Y. Sommer906.900––0
J. Seys897.000–14
N. Tresoldi868.9303–1
H. Vetlesen796.9001–1
K. Sabbe797.901–14
J. Virgili456.300111
M. Diakhon457.2001–2
F. Lemaréchal116.500––0
H. Siquet116.300––1
R. Vermant96.700––0
M. Dams1–00––0
Sint-Truiden
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sissako906.900113
I. Sebaoui906.6102–1
K. Takai906.300––1
L. Kokubo906.000––0
S. Taniguchi907.2101–0
T. Hata906.000––0
N. Mbuku766.7001–4
N. Ishiwatari696.900114
S. Shinkawa696.200––0
J. Pupe636.200––0
S. Baždar636.700–10
R. Vanwesemael326.000––1
F. Soelle Soelle276.301110
K. Matsuzawa216.200––0
R. Merlen216.500–11
A. Muja146.900–20

xG (Highlightly) available

Club Brugge
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Y. Sommer–––
Sint-Truiden
PlayerxGxAxGOT
L. Kokubo–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

  1. 7N. Tresoldi8.9
  1. 11J. Virgili6.3
  2. 10H. Vetlesen6.9
  3. 9C. Forbs9.3
  1. 20H. Vanaken (c)6.7
  2. 8F. Potts7.7
  1. 65J. Seys7.0
  2. 44B. Mechele6.3
  3. 58J. Spileers6.0
  4. 64K. Sabbe7.9
  1. 1Y. Sommer6.9

Club Brugge4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sint-Truiden

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Club Brugge · Bench

Coach: Ivan Leko

Sint-Truiden · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Club Bruggeavailable

  1. B. Mechele · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists
  2. Y. Sommer · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Seys · Defender710 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 3 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Sint-Truidenavailable

  1. L. Kokubo · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. I. Sebaoui · Midfielder709 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 3 assists
  3. A. Sissako · Midfielder705 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Club Brugge the most probability, 57.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Club Brugge · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Club Brugge · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Club Brugge · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Club Brugge +2.0, draw -1.2, Sint-Truiden -0.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (918 → 926), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–2: Club Brugge. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 73.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.314, Brier 0.110 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Club Brugge88.1
Sint-Truiden52.8
Club Brugge — 88.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 87% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Sint-Truiden — 52.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 87% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 25 Oct, 14:33 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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