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Picked from 20 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Blackburn v Cardiff

BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen 28′ · T. Cantwell 38′
2–1FT · HT 2–0
CardiffC. Robinson 53′
Where to watch

· Ewood Park, Blackburn

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Tom Nield
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Ewood Park, Blackburn
  • Referee: Tom Nield
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Blackburn⁩ win. The model gave it 48.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.156 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.54 – 0.98⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.42 – 1.05⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.9%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%

⁦2–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 10 Oct, 14:31 UK time, 28 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 9 Oct on 1,631 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

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Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 28′Goal · BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen
  3. 38′Goal · BlackburnT. Cantwell · (assist R. Morishita)
  4. 53′Goal · CardiffC. Robinson · (assist J. Moylan)
  5. 90+6′Yellow card · BlackburnT. Cantwell
Substitutions (9)
  1. 60′Substitution · CardiffC. Willock on · C. Ashford off
  2. 64′Substitution · BlackburnM. Baradji on · A. Guðjohnsen off
  3. 64′Substitution · BlackburnJ. Fevrier on · R. Morishita off
  4. 71′Substitution · CardiffD. Turnbull on · J. Colwill off
  5. 71′Substitution · CardiffI. Davies on · C. Robinson off
  6. 74′Substitution · BlackburnA. Kargbo on · O. Afolayan off
  7. 78′Substitution · CardiffR. Kpakio on · J. Bagan off
  8. 79′Substitution · CardiffC. Scanlon on · D. Lawlor off
  9. 83′Substitution · BlackburnJ. Garrett on · K. Montgomery off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 41%Possession59%
  • 2.42Expected goals (xG)1.05

Attack

  • 17Shots10
  • 8Shots on target1
  • 5Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots5
  • 11Corners6
  • 4Offsides1
  • 0Saves5

Passing

  • 329Passes462
  • 239Accurate passes384
  • 73%Pass accuracy83%

Discipline

  • 9Fouls6
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Blackburn
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Tóth906.200000
H. Pickering906.700013
H. Carter907.900101
R. Alebiosu906.600112
S. Morsy907.000014
S. McLoughlin906.900201
T. Cantwell908.310262
K. Montgomery837.300024
O. Afolayan747.700223
A. Guðjohnsen647.310100
R. Morishita646.901111
J. Fevrier266.600100
M. Baradji266.900300
A. Kargbo166.300100
J. Garrett146.600000
Cardiff
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Robertson907.200114
G. Osho906.600001
J. Moylan907.201121
N. Trott906.200000
O. Tanner906.500122
P. Ng906.300001
D. Lawlor786.300001
J. Bagan788.200015
C. Robinson717.210100
J. Colwill716.300102
C. Ashford606.200001
C. Willock306.900021
D. Turnbull196.900000
I. Davies196.600100
C. Scanlon126.900001
R. Kpakio127.300002

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Cardiff4-2-3-1

  1. 1Trott6.2
  1. 38Ng (c)6.3
  2. 48LawlorOff 79′6.3
  3. 4Osho6.6
  4. 3BaganOff 78′8.2
  1. 18Robertson7.2
  2. 8Moylan7.2
  1. 11Tanner6.5
  2. 27ColwillOff 71′6.3
  3. 45AshfordOff 60′6.2
  1. 47RobinsonGoal 53′ · Off 71′7.2
  1. 9GuðjohnsenGoal 28′ · Off 64′7.3
  1. 21AfolayanOff 74′7.7
  2. 10Cantwell (c)Goal 38′ · Booked 90+6′8.3
  3. 25MorishitaOff 64′6.9
  1. 31MontgomeryOff 83′7.3
  2. 8Morsy7.0
  1. 3Pickering6.7
  2. 15McLoughlin6.9
  3. 17Carter7.9
  4. 2Alebiosu6.6
  1. 22Tóth6.2

Blackburn4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Blackburn · Bench

Coach: Tony Mowbray

Cardiff · Bench

Coach: Brian Barry-Murphy

Key players

Blackburnavailable

  1. S. McLoughlin · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. K. Montgomery · Midfielder688 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. R. Morishita · Midfielder680 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Cardiffavailable

  1. P. Ng · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. N. Trott · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Bagan · Defender719 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Blackburn the most probability, 20.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Blackburn · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Blackburn · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Blackburn · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Blackburn +0.3, draw -0.4, Cardiff +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (611 → 1,631), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 9 Oct 2026), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 5 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Blackburn. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 48.9%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.716, Brier 0.394 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Blackburn41.0
Cardiff44.7
Blackburn — 41.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Cardiff — 44.795% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 28% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 15% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 10 Oct, 14:31 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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