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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Sint-Truiden v Zulte Waregem

Sint-TruidenS. Shinkawa 7′ · N. Ishiwatari 12′ · I. Sebaoui 64′ · K. Matsuzawa 66′
4–1FT · HT 2–1
Zulte WaregemI. Átrok 14′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: A. Letellier
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: A. Letellier
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sint-Truiden⁩ win. The model gave it 52.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.142 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.89 – 1.22⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.05 – 1.24⁩
Goals
⁦4 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 6.3%

⁦4–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 08 Nov, 17:55 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 7 Nov on 928 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:15Kick-off
  2. 7′Goal · Sint-TruidenS. Shinkawa
  3. 12′Goal · Sint-TruidenN. Ishiwatari · (assist R. Vanwesemael)
  4. 14′Goal · Zulte WaregemI. Átrok
  5. 27′Yellow card · Zulte WaregemI. Átrok
  6. 42′Yellow card · Zulte WaregemF. Tangala
  7. 45′Yellow card · Zulte WaregemE. Lofolomo
  8. 46′Substitution · Zulte WaregemY. Mbodji on · F. Tangala off
  9. 64′Penalty · Sint-TruidenI. Sebaoui
  10. 65′Substitution · Sint-TruidenK. Matsuzawa on · N. Mbuku off
  11. 65′Substitution · Sint-TruidenA. Muja on · S. Shinkawa off
  12. 65′Substitution · Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle on · S. Baždar off
  13. 66′Goal · Sint-TruidenK. Matsuzawa · (assist A. Sissako)
  14. 68′VAR · Sint-Truiden · Goal standsK. Matsuzawa
  15. 74′Red card · Zulte WaregemY. Mbodji
  16. 78′Substitution · Zulte WaregemS. Ujka on · I. Átrok off
  17. 78′Substitution · Zulte WaregemM. Mbaye on · A. Ementa off
  18. 81′Substitution · Sint-TruidenT. Hata on · R. Vanwesemael off
  19. 85′Substitution · Sint-TruidenR. Merlen on · I. Sebaoui off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 5Corners4
  • 2.05Expected goals (xG)1.24
  • 11Fouls13
  • 4Offsides2
  • 88%Pass accuracy76%
  • 644Passes298
  • 565Accurate passes227
  • 68%Possession32%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 1Saves5
  • 16Shots11
  • 3Shots off target6
  • 9Shots on target2
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sint-Truiden
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sissako907.301–41
J. Pupe907.000111
L. Kokubo906.300––0
N. Ishiwatari908.2102–4
S. Taniguchi907.300––1
V. Musliu907.5001–0
I. Sebaoui857.910221
R. Vanwesemael817.301–13
N. Mbuku657.200110
S. Baždar656.6001–0
S. Shinkawa657.310210
A. Muja256.900111
F. Soelle Soelle256.500––0
K. Matsuzawa257.9102–0
T. Hata96.600––0
R. Merlen86.300––0
Zulte Waregem
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. De Jaegere906.200––6
B. Gabriël906.700––0
E. Lofolomo906.900––3
J. Kiilerich906.200––1
M. Aké906.3002–3
T. Claes906.2001–1
T. Hedl906.900–22
Y. Cappelle906.900115
A. Ementa786.900213
I. Átrok787.210121
F. Tangala456.300––3
Y. Mbodji295.9001–2
M. Mbaye126.300––0
S. Ujka126.900–12

xG (Highlightly)limited

Sint-Truiden
PlayerxGxAxGOT
L. Kokubo–––
Zulte Waregem
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Gabriël–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Zulte Waregem4-4-2

  1. 13B. Gabriël6.7
  1. 49F. Tangala6.3
  2. 45B. De Jaegere6.2
  3. 5J. Kiilerich6.2
  4. 55Y. Cappelle6.9
  1. 21I. Átrok7.2
  2. 8T. Claes6.2
  3. 6E. Lofolomo6.9
  4. 11M. Aké6.3
  1. 20T. Hedl6.9
  2. 18A. Ementa (c)6.9
  1. 9S. Baždar6.6
  1. 10I. Sebaoui7.9
  2. 99S. Shinkawa7.3
  3. 11N. Mbuku7.2
  1. 18N. Ishiwatari8.2
  2. 8A. Sissako7.3
  1. 23J. Pupe7.0
  2. 26V. Musliu7.5
  3. 5S. Taniguchi (c)7.3
  4. 60R. Vanwesemael7.3
  1. 16L. Kokubo6.3

Sint-Truiden4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sint-Truiden · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Zulte Waregem · Bench

Coach: Michael Beale

Key players

Sint-Truidenavailable

  1. L. Kokubo · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. A. Sissako · Midfielder885 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. I. Sebaoui · Midfielder866 min in 10 matches · 3 goals · 3 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Zulte Waregemavailable

  1. J. Kiilerich · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. L. Lemoine · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. E. Lofolomo · Midfielder888 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sint-Truiden the most probability, 28.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Sint-Truiden · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Sint-Truiden · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Sint-Truiden · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Sint-Truiden +4.3, draw -0.7, Zulte Waregem -3.6 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (918 → 923), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Sint-Truiden +0.8, draw -0.7, Zulte Waregem -0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 7 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (923 → 928), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 3 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 4–1: Sint-Truiden. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 52.6%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.642, Brier 0.337 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Sint-Truiden49.3
Zulte Waregem38.8
Sint-Truiden — 49.395% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 84% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 11% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Zulte Waregem — 38.895% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 30% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 08 Nov, 17:55 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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