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Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Benfica v Vitória de Guimarães

BenficaS. Dahl 24′ · G. Sudakov 75′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Vitória de Guimarães
Where to watch

· Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
  • Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Benfica⁩ win. The model gave it 73.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.039 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.35 – 0.73⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.76 – 0.43⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 12.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.9%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 10.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.8%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 11 Oct, 06:55 UK time, 11 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 10 Oct on 916 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:00Kick-off
  2. 17′Yellow card · Vitória de GuimarãesT. Strata
  3. 24′Goal · BenficaS. Dahl · (assist V. Pavlidis)
  4. 33′Yellow card · Vitória de GuimarãesG. Nogueira
  5. 50′Yellow card · Vitória de GuimarãesT. Borevković
  6. 52′Yellow card · BenficaL. Barreiro
  7. 55′Yellow card · BenficaT. Araújo
  8. 57′Yellow card · Vitória de GuimarãesSamu
  9. 61′Substitution · BenficaF. Aursnes on · L. Barreiro off
  10. 61′Substitution · BenficaC. Echeverri on · A. Schjelderup off
  11. 66′Substitution · Vitória de GuimarãesB. Mukendi on · L. Doucet off
  12. 67′Substitution · Vitória de GuimarãesT. Arcanjo on · M. Nogueira off
  13. 72′Yellow card · Vitória de GuimarãesT. Balieiro
  14. 73′Substitution · BenficaG. Sudakov on · A. Bah off
  15. 73′Substitution · BenficaD. Lukebakio on · R. Silva off
  16. 73′Substitution · Vitória de GuimarãesM. Mitrović on · G. Nogueira off
  17. 73′Substitution · Vitória de GuimarãesP. Ouotro on · A. Jakupović off
  18. 75′Goal · BenficaG. Sudakov · (assist C. Echeverri)
  19. 81′Substitution · Vitória de GuimarãesM. Maga on · T. Strata off
  20. 82′Substitution · BenficaJ. Durán on · V. Pavlidis off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots3
  • 11Corners6
  • 2.76Expected goals (xG)0.43
  • 9Fouls23
  • 1Offsides2
  • 86%Pass accuracy78%
  • 555Passes329
  • 480Accurate passes258
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Saves3
  • 23Shots8
  • 12Shots off target5
  • 5Shots on target0
  • 2Yellow cards5

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Benfica
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Circati907.300211
G. Prestianni907.900252
J. Palhinha906.300112
S. Dahl908.910104
S. Soares907.000000
T. Araújo907.600010
V. Pavlidis827.901231
A. Bah736.700010
R. Silva736.200211
A. Schjelderup617.900242
L. Barreiro616.500201
C. Echeverri297.301110
F. Aursnes296.900000
D. Lukebakio176.900000
G. Sudakov177.910111
J. Durán86.300100
Vitória de Guimarães
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
J. Mendes906.900114
O. Zych907.300000
O. Camara906.200110
Samu906.900042
T. Balieiro906.300102
T. Borevković906.300002
T. Strata816.700013
A. Jakupović736.700300
G. Nogueira737.200006
M. Nogueira676.500100
L. Doucet667.000000
B. Mukendi246.900000
T. Arcanjo237.200000
M. Mitrović176.300100
P. Ouotro176.700000
M. Maga97.000012

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Vitória de Guimarães4-2-3-1

  1. 48O. Zych7.3
  1. 23T. Strata6.7
  2. 21T. Borevković6.3
  3. 28T. Balieiro6.3
  4. 13J. Mendes6.9
  1. 44L. Doucet7.0
  2. 8G. Nogueira7.2
  1. 17M. Nogueira6.5
  2. 20Samu (c)6.9
  3. 7O. Camara6.2
  1. 9A. Jakupović6.7
  1. 14V. Pavlidis7.9
  1. 21A. Schjelderup7.9
  2. 25G. Prestianni7.9
  3. 27R. Silva6.2
  1. 36J. Palhinha6.3
  2. 18L. Barreiro6.5
  1. 26S. Dahl8.9
  2. 44T. Araújo (c)7.6
  3. 3A. Circati7.3
  4. 6A. Bah6.7
  1. 24S. Soares7.0

Benfica4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Benfica · Bench

Coach: Marco Silva

Vitória de Guimarães · Bench

Coach: Tiago Margarido

Key players

Benficaavailable

  1. S. Soares · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. S. Dahl · Defender613 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. T. Araújo · Defender599 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Vitória de Guimarãesavailable

  1. J. Mendes · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. O. Zych · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. T. Balieiro · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Benfica the most probability, 57.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Benfica · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Benfica · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Benfica · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Benfica -8.1, draw +4.0, Vitória de Guimarães +4.1 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (3 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (342 → 917), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (29 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (917 → 916), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Benfica. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 73.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.305, Brier 0.106 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Benfica90.7
Vitória de Guimarães38.1
Benfica — 90.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Vitória de Guimarães — 38.195% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 11 Oct, 06:55 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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