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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 13

Dundee United v Motherwell

Dundee UnitedJ. Randall 41′
1–1FT · HT 1–1
MotherwellL. Fadinger 9′
Where to watch

· Tannadice Park, Dundee

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Tannadice Park, Dundee
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 26.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.138 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.38 – 1.27⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.95 – 1.77⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.5%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.9%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 07 Nov, 14:33 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 6 Nov on 690 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 6′VAR · Motherwell · Penalty confirmedT. Maswanhise
  3. 9′Yellow card · Dundee UnitedD. Tait
  4. 9′Penalty · MotherwellL. Fadinger
  5. 11′Yellow card · Dundee UnitedZ. Sapsford
  6. 41′Goal · Dundee UnitedJ. Randall · (assist L. Cameron)
  7. 56′Yellow card · MotherwellM. Moormann
  8. 64′Substitution · MotherwellR. Charles-Cook on · J. Kanga off
  9. 64′Substitution · MotherwellO. Priestman on · L. Fadinger off
  10. 65′Substitution · Dundee UnitedA. Yoro on · D. Bennie off
  11. 71′Substitution · Dundee UnitedP. Camará on · D. Tait off
  12. 71′Substitution · Dundee UnitedI. Metsoko on · Z. Sapsford off
  13. 73′Substitution · MotherwellC. Hendry on · I. Said off
  14. 83′Yellow card · MotherwellC. Hendry
  15. 83′Substitution · Dundee UnitedL. Rose on · L. Cameron off
  16. 86′Substitution · MotherwellE. Bjorgolfsson on · S. Palmer-Houlden off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 8Blocked shots6
  • 13Corners7
  • 1.95Expected goals (xG)1.77
  • 9Fouls17
  • 435Passes451
  • 377Accurate passes388
  • 47%Possession53%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Saves4
  • 23Shots17
  • 9Shots off target5
  • 6Shots on target6
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Dundee United
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Esselink907.100011
J. James Walton907.500000
J. Randall908.210641
J. Rawlins906.800105
K. Ciubotaru906.300113
M. Forbes907.000102
Z. Iqbal907.200425
L. Cameron837.701340
D. Tait716.900224
Z. Sapsford716.400200
D. Bennie656.200110
A. Yoro257.200110
I. Metsoko196.800020
P. Camará196.500100
L. Rose76.500000
Motherwell
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Paulsen907.700000
E. Longelo906.200410
J. Girdwood-Reich907.000000
J. Hodge906.700101
M. Moormann906.600013
T. Maswanhise906.200113
T. Sparrow906.900014
S. Palmer-Houlden866.300331
I. Said736.400322
J. Kanga646.700221
L. Fadinger647.110101
O. Priestman266.300100
R. Charles-Cook266.400100
C. Hendry176.600020
E. Bjorgolfsson46.500000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Dundee United
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. James Walton–––
Motherwell
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Paulsen–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Motherwell4-2-3-1

  1. 1A. Paulsen7.7
  1. 7T. Sparrow6.9
  2. 3J. Girdwood-Reich7.0
  3. 5M. Moormann6.6
  4. 45E. Longelo6.2
  1. 71J. Hodge6.7
  2. 8L. Fadinger7.1
  1. 18T. Maswanhise6.2
  2. 19I. Said6.4
  3. 13J. Kanga6.7
  1. 47S. Palmer-Houlden6.3
  1. 77D. Bennie6.2
  2. 9Z. Sapsford6.4
  3. 21J. Randall8.2
  1. 14Z. Iqbal7.2
  2. 10D. Tait6.9
  3. 16L. Cameron7.7
  1. 19K. Ciubotaru6.3
  2. 18M. Forbes7.0
  3. 3B. Esselink7.1
  4. 23J. Rawlins6.8
  1. 1J. James Walton7.5

Dundee United4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Dundee United · Bench

Coach: J. Goodwin

Motherwell · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Dundee Unitedavailable

  1. M. Forbes · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  2. J. James Walton · Goalkeeper990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. B. Esselink · Defender962 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Motherwellavailable

  1. A. Paulsen · Goalkeeper1,080 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. E. Longelo · Defender1,016 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. M. Moormann · Defender1,004 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 12 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: Dundee United is ahead by 4.9 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Dundee United · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Motherwell · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Motherwell · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Dundee United +1.8, draw -0.3, Motherwell -1.5 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 6 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (687 → 690), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 2 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 26.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.347, Brier 0.823 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Dundee United65.0
Motherwell54.7
Dundee United — 65.095% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 9 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Motherwell — 54.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 70% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 07 Nov, 14:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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