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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Aberdeen v Falkirk

Aberdeen
0–1FT · HT 0–0
FalkirkB. Krauhaus 73′
Where to watch

· Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Falkirk⁩ win. The model gave it 31.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.323 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.36 – 1.14⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.72 – 1.08⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.8%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.0%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.3%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 28 Oct, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 27 Oct on 688 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 17′Yellow card · AberdeenD. Happe
  3. 38′Substitution · FalkirkS. Tanser on · L. McCann off
  4. 50′Substitution · AberdeenN. Devlin on · C. Cadden off
  5. 57′Substitution · AberdeenH. Mahou on · L. Smith off
  6. 57′Substitution · AberdeenF. Marshall on · A. Afeez off
  7. 65′Substitution · FalkirkB. Krauhaus on · D. Melniks off
  8. 66′Substitution · FalkirkB. Parkinson on · J. Murrell off
  9. 66′Substitution · AberdeenT. Olusanya on · A. Mouloua off
  10. 66′Substitution · AberdeenJ. Milne on · D. Happe off
  11. 69′Yellow card · FalkirkO. Eames
  12. 73′Goal · FalkirkB. Krauhaus · (assist R. Strain)
  13. 73′Yellow card · AberdeenF. Marshall
  14. 79′Substitution · FalkirkC. Fodrey on · E. Ross off
  15. 79′Substitution · FalkirkC. McLeod on · O. Eames off
  16. 80′Yellow card · FalkirkC. McLeod
  17. 83′Yellow card · FalkirkB. Krauhaus
  18. 89′Yellow card · FalkirkB. Spencer

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots5
  • 5Corners4
  • 1.72Expected goals (xG)1.08
  • 14Fouls10
  • 4Offsides0
  • 376Passes467
  • 268Accurate passes351
  • 45%Possession55%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves4
  • 15Shots13
  • 4Shots off target4
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 2Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Aberdeen
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Lyons906.400413
G. Molloy906.600000
K. Nisbet906.400210
M. Müller906.200000
N. Guinness-Walker905.800112
S. Armstrong907.200042
A. Mouloua666.700211
D. Happe666.100010
A. Afeez576.600203
L. Smith576.100100
C. Cadden506.300200
N. Devlin406.300001
F. Marshall336.000000
H. Mahou336.600105
J. Milne246.500001
T. Olusanya246.200000
Falkirk
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Spencer906.200010
F. Barbrook906.700103
L. Neilson906.500000
L. Henderson906.900002
R. Strain907.501032
S. Bain907.900000
E. Ross796.000310
O. Eames796.500210
J. Murrell666.300210
D. Melniks656.800201
S. Tanser526.300000
L. McCann386.600011
B. Krauhaus257.510301
B. Parkinson246.100000
C. McLeod116.400002
C. Fodrey116.400000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Aberdeen
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Müller–––
Falkirk
PlayerxGxAxGOT
S. Bain–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Falkirk4-2-3-1

  1. 19S. Bain7.9
  1. 22R. Strain7.5
  2. 15L. Neilson6.5
  3. 5L. Henderson6.9
  4. 3L. McCann6.6
  1. 21D. Melniks6.8
  2. 8B. Spencer6.2
  1. 23E. Ross6.0
  2. 16F. Barbrook6.7
  3. 42O. Eames6.5
  1. 24J. Murrell6.3
  1. 9A. Mouloua6.7
  1. 17S. Armstrong7.2
  2. 15K. Nisbet6.4
  3. 11L. Smith6.1
  1. 32A. Afeez6.6
  2. 8B. Lyons6.4
  1. 24N. Guinness-Walker5.8
  2. 26D. Happe6.1
  3. 21G. Molloy6.6
  4. 28C. Cadden6.3
  1. 27M. Müller6.2

Aberdeen4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Aberdeen · Bench

Coach: S. Robinson

Falkirk · Bench

Coach: John McGlynn

Key players

Aberdeenavailable

  1. M. Müller · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. C. Cadden · Defender882 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. N. Guinness-Walker · Defender855 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Falkirkavailable

  1. S. Bain · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. Strain · Defender899 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 4 assists
  3. L. Henderson · Defender867 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Aberdeen the most probability, 10.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Aberdeen · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Falkirk · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Falkirk · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (20 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), history from (16 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (24 Oct 2026 → 27 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (685 → 688), history from (20 Oct 2023 → 23 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Falkirk. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 31.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.161, Brier 0.718 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Aberdeen51.7
Falkirk57.6
Aberdeen — 51.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Falkirk — 57.695% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 64% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 28 Oct, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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