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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Norwich v Southampton

Norwich
0–1FT · HT 0–0
SouthamptonK. Matsuki 54′
Where to watch

· Carrow Road, Norwich

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Stephen Martin
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Carrow Road, Norwich
  • Referee: Stephen Martin
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Southampton⁩ win. The model gave it 50.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.165 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.73 – 2.30⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.18 – 2.10⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.9%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 7.0%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 6.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 6.1%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 14 Oct, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 13 Oct on 1,619 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 15′Yellow card · SouthamptonR. Manning
  3. 22′Substitution · SouthamptonC. Jander on · F. Downes off
  4. 26′Yellow card · SouthamptonZ. Abbott
  5. 46′Substitution · SouthamptonWelington on · R. Manning off
  6. 46′Substitution · SouthamptonJ. Bree on · Z. Abbott off
  7. 48′Yellow card · NorwichJ. Wright
  8. 54′Goal · SouthamptonK. Matsuki
  9. 61′Substitution · NorwichP. Maghoma on · A. Ben Slimane off
  10. 61′Substitution · NorwichJ. Makama on · M. Kvistgaarden off
  11. 70′Substitution · SouthamptonC. Larin on · S. Edozie off
  12. 72′Substitution · NorwichA. Musaba on · O. Schwartau off
  13. 72′Substitution · NorwichA. Crnac on · A. Brooks off
  14. 76′Substitution · NorwichS. Field on · J. Wright off
  15. 77′Yellow card · NorwichS. Field
  16. 82′Substitution · SouthamptonD. Mubama on · L. Dobbin off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots5
  • 5Corners3
  • 1.18Expected goals (xG)2.10
  • 15Fouls9
  • 0Offsides3
  • 83%Pass accuracy84%
  • 438Passes465
  • 362Accurate passes390
  • 49%Possession51%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves3
  • 12Shots15
  • 5Shots off target6
  • 4Shots on target4
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Norwich
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Chrisene906.200111
D. Grimshaw907.500000
J. Stacey906.200001
J. Córdoba906.300102
P. Mattsson907.000033
R. McConville907.500011
J. Wright767.200210
A. Brooks726.600120
O. Schwartau726.600101
A. Ben Slimane616.900013
M. Kvistgaarden616.600100
J. Makama296.900101
P. Maghoma296.700000
A. Crnac186.300011
A. Musaba186.900200
S. Field146.900001
Southampton
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Peretz907.900000
F. Azaz906.900230
J. Stephens907.000010
J. Ward-Prowse907.300110
K. Schlotterbeck907.000110
K. Matsuki907.310200
L. Dobbin827.900001
S. Edozie707.200200
C. Jander686.500114
J. Bree456.900001
R. Manning456.900200
Welington456.900001
Z. Abbott456.200010
F. Downes226.700011
C. Larin206.700100
D. Mubama86.300010

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Southampton4-2-3-1

  1. 1D. Peretz7.9
  1. 6Z. Abbott6.2
  2. 5J. Stephens (c)7.0
  3. 13K. Schlotterbeck7.0
  4. 3R. Manning6.9
  1. 30J. Ward-Prowse7.3
  2. 4F. Downes6.7
  1. 27K. Matsuki7.3
  2. 10F. Azaz6.9
  3. 23S. Edozie7.2
  1. 11L. Dobbin7.9
  1. 30M. Kvistgaarden6.6
  1. 29O. Schwartau6.6
  2. 20A. Ben Slimane6.9
  3. 11A. Brooks6.6
  1. 7P. Mattsson (c)7.0
  2. 16J. Wright7.2
  1. 14B. Chrisene6.2
  2. 33J. Córdoba6.3
  3. 15R. McConville7.5
  4. 3J. Stacey6.2
  1. 32D. Grimshaw7.5

Norwich4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Norwich · Bench

Coach: Philippe Clement

Southampton · Bench

Coach: Tonda Eckert

Key players

Norwichavailable

  1. V. Kovačević · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Córdoba · Defender784 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. P. Mattsson · Midfielder741 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Southamptonavailable

  1. D. Peretz · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Bree · Defender809 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. F. Azaz · Forward738 min in 9 matches · 3 goals · 5 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Southampton the most probability, 21.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Southampton · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Southampton · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Norwich · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Norwich +1.6, draw -0.1, Southampton -1.5 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (6 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (599 → 1,631), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (1 Sept 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,631 → 1,630), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,630 → 1,619), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 13 Oct 2026), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 9 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Southampton. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 50.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.693, Brier 0.377 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Norwich55.5
Southampton78.8
Norwich — 55.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Southampton — 78.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 14 Oct, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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