Skip to content

Moments that matter

0 live

Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Gil Vicente v Porto

Gil Vicente
0–1FT · HT 0–0
PortoB. Sainz 63′
Where to watch

· Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
  • Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Porto⁩ win. The model gave it 60.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.091 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.67 – 1.61⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.35 – 1.08⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–1⁩ 16.8%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 13.3%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.9%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 20 Oct, 01:00 UK time, 4 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 19 Oct on 917 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:30Kick-off
  2. 45′Substitution · PortoH. In-Beom on · G. Veiga off
  3. 56′Yellow card · PortoP. Rosario
  4. 59′Substitution · PortoS. Aghehowa on · A. Silva off
  5. 60′Substitution · Gil VicenteZ. Carlos on · A. Lausen off
  6. 60′Substitution · Gil VicenteM. Kaba on · Walace off
  7. 60′Substitution · Gil VicenteG. Martins on · J. Fernandes off
  8. 63′Goal · PortoB. Sainz
  9. 72′Substitution · PortoA. Varela on · P. Rosario off
  10. 72′Substitution · PortoS. Giménez on · B. Sainz off
  11. 75′Substitution · Gil VicenteG. Gomes on · S. García off
  12. 76′Substitution · Gil VicenteT. Touré on · D. Prioste off
  13. 84′Red card · Gil VicenteM. Elimbi Gilbert

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots5
  • 3Corners8
  • 0.35Expected goals (xG)1.08
  • 17Fouls17
  • 2Offsides2
  • 354Passes501
  • 290Accurate passes429
  • 42%Possession58%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 3Saves2
  • 10Shots12
  • 5Shots off target3
  • 2Shots on target4
  • 0Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Gil Vicente
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Moreira906.400001
J. Buatu907.200001
Lucão907.200001
Murilo906.600210
R. Esgaio906.900011
M. Elimbi Gilbert845.500100
D. Prioste766.800111
S. García757.100242
A. Lausen606.600112
J. Fernandes606.500011
Walace606.100300
G. Martins306.200000
M. Kaba306.400011
Z. Carlos306.700001
G. Gomes156.000001
T. Touré146.300000
Porto
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Costa907.100103
D. Costa907.000000
J. Kiwior907.600111
J. Bednarek907.900203
Pepê906.500023
V. Froholdt906.300100
Z. Sanusi907.500011
B. Sainz727.910311
P. Rosario726.400101
A. Silva596.600200
G. Veiga457.200131
H. In-Beom457.200010
S. Aghehowa316.400000
A. Varela186.800000
S. Giménez186.400000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Gil Vicente
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Walace0.130.00–
S. García0.070.03–
D. Prioste0.060.02–
Murilo0.040.400.05
A. Lausen0.020.01–
M. Elimbi Gilbert0.020.00–
D. Moreira–0.00–
G. Martins–0.01–
G. Gomes–0.00–
J. Fernandes–0.02–
J. Buatu–0.00–
Lucão–0.00–
M. Kaba–0.00–
R. Esgaio–0.12–
T. Touré–0.01–
Z. Carlos–0.00–
Porto
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Sainz0.640.031.11
J. Bednarek0.110.020.68
V. Froholdt0.110.01–
A. Silva0.100.02–
J. Kiwior0.050.050.23
P. Rosario0.030.06–
G. Veiga0.020.54–
A. Costa0.010.01–
A. Varela–0.00–
D. Costa–0.01–
H. In-Beom–0.01–
S. Aghehowa–0.00–
S. Giménez–0.02–
Z. Sanusi–0.23–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Porto4-3-3

  1. 99D. Costa7.0
  1. 20A. Costa7.1
  2. 5J. Bednarek7.9
  3. 4J. Kiwior7.6
  4. 12Z. Sanusi7.5
  1. 8V. Froholdt6.3
  2. 13P. Rosario6.4
  3. 10G. Veiga7.2
  1. 11Pepê6.5
  2. 19A. Silva6.6
  3. 17B. Sainz7.9
  1. 9Walace6.1
  1. 11J. Fernandes6.5
  2. 10S. García7.1
  3. 77Murilo6.6
  1. 86D. Prioste6.8
  2. 12A. Lausen6.6
  1. 45D. Moreira6.4
  2. 39J. Buatu7.2
  3. 4M. Elimbi Gilbert5.5
  4. 47R. Esgaio6.9
  1. 30Lucão7.2

Gil Vicente4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Gil Vicente · Bench

Coach: Luis Pinto

Porto · Bench

Coach: Francesco Farioli

Key players

Gil Vicenteavailable

  1. J. Buatu · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. Lucão · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. M. Elimbi Gilbert · Defender718 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Portoavailable

  1. J. Kiwior · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 1 assist
  2. D. Costa · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. Pepê · Forward673 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 4 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Porto the most probability, 36.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Porto · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Porto · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Gil Vicente · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Gil Vicente +0.3, draw 0.0, Porto -0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 19 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (908 → 917), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 15 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Porto. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 60.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.506, Brier 0.241 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Gil Vicente64.5
Porto89.9
Gil Vicente — 64.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 49% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Porto — 89.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 10 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 20 Oct, 01:00 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.