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Picked from 31 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Jablonec v Brighton

Jablonec
0–0FT · HT 0–0
Brighton
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: S. Kringstad
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: S. Kringstad
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 18.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.261 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.77 – 2.29⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.73 – 1.42⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–2⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–3⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 8.6%

⁦0–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v5 computed 22 Oct, 17:25 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 21 Oct on 19,965 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 62′Substitution · JablonecS. Nebyla on · M. Polidar off
  3. 62′Substitution · JablonecG. Kuol on · S. Alioum off
  4. 65′Yellow card · JablonecS. Nebyla
  5. 68′Substitution · BrightonL. Vušković on · O. Boscagli off
  6. 68′Substitution · BrightonY. Ayari on · M. O'Riley off
  7. 68′Substitution · BrightonC. Andrés on · P. Groß off
  8. 68′Substitution · BrightonP. David on · J. Hinshelwood off
  9. 69′Yellow card · BrightonCostinha
  10. 73′Yellow card · JablonecA. Růsek
  11. 74′Substitution · JablonecD. Hollý on · A. Růsek off
  12. 77′Yellow card · JablonecD. Pavlović
  13. 85′Yellow card · JablonecM. Cedidla
  14. 86′Substitution · BrightonF. Kadıoğlu on · J. Hadjam off
  15. 90+1′Substitution · JablonecD. Souček on · R. Sedláček off
  16. 90+1′Substitution · JablonecJ. Chramosta on · N. Okeke off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 0Blocked shots6
  • 2Corners7
  • 0.73Expected goals (xG)1.42
  • 6Fouls13
  • 5Offsides3
  • 64%Pass accuracy87%
  • 224Passes578
  • 143Accurate passes503
  • 28%Possession72%
  • 4Saves4
  • 9Shots26
  • 5Shots off target16
  • 4Shots on target4
  • 4Yellow cards1

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Jablonec
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Pavlović906.9–0––1
J. Hanuš907.0–0–––
J. Sláma907.9–0143
M. Cedidla908.2–0113
N. Tekijaški908.6–0––3
V. Chanturishvili907.3–01–2
N. Okeke897.2–0–14
R. Sedláček896.9–01––
A. Růsek746.6–02––
M. Polidar626.9–01–1
S. Alioum626.2–0–––
G. Kuol286.7–0–––
S. Nebyla286.5–01––
D. Hollý166.7–0111
D. Souček1––0–––
J. Chramosta1––0–––
Brighton
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Verbruggen908.3–0–––
Costinha907.3–0–11
G. Rutter906.2–05––
I. Osman906.0–041–
M. Yalcouyé907.5–0141
M. Svoboda907.3–0112
J. Hadjam867.2–01–1
J. Hinshelwood686.6–0211
M. O'Riley686.7–01–3
O. Boscagli687.9–0141
P. Groß687.7–0143
C. Andrés227.0–0111
L. Vušković227.3–0132
P. David226.2–0––1
Y. Ayari226.7–01––
F. Kadıoğlu106.6–0––1

xG (Highlightly)limited

Jablonec
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Růsek0.200.000.18
M. Polidar0.180.300.23
D. Hollý0.100.00–
S. Nebyla0.090.00–
J. Sláma0.050.360.26
M. Cedidla0.040.01–
R. Sedláček0.030.01–
V. Chanturishvili0.030.010.17
D. Pavlović–0.00–
G. Kuol–0.00–
J. Hanuš–0.00–
N. Okeke–0.02–
N. Tekijaški–0.03–
S. Alioum–0.03–
Brighton
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Osman0.290.09–
G. Rutter0.250.020.15
Y. Ayari0.160.06–
M. O'Riley0.150.07–
J. Hinshelwood0.110.030.02
M. Yalcouyé0.110.17–
M. Svoboda0.090.13–
P. Groß0.090.38–
L. Vušković0.050.50–
C. Andrés0.040.13–
Costinha0.030.07–
J. Hadjam0.030.08–
O. Boscagli0.020.11–
B. Verbruggen–0.00–
P. David–0.01–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Brighton4-2-3-1

  1. 1B. Verbruggen8.3
  1. 20Costinha7.3
  2. 30M. Svoboda7.3
  3. 21O. Boscagli7.9
  4. 3J. Hadjam7.2
  1. 13P. Groß (c)7.7
  2. 35M. Yalcouyé7.5
  1. 33M. O'Riley6.7
  2. 8J. Hinshelwood6.6
  3. 15I. Osman6.0
  1. 10G. Rutter6.2
  1. 9A. Růsek6.6
  1. 21M. Polidar6.9
  2. 17S. Alioum6.2
  3. 7V. Chanturishvili7.3
  1. 6N. Okeke7.2
  2. 13R. Sedláček6.9
  1. 20J. Sláma7.9
  2. 15D. Pavlović6.9
  3. 4N. Tekijaški (c)8.6
  4. 18M. Cedidla8.2
  1. 1J. Hanuš7.0

Jablonec4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Jablonec · Bench

Coach: Lubos Kozel

Brighton · Bench

Coach: F. Hürzeler

Key players

Jabloneclimited

  1. V. Chanturishvili · Midfielder300 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  2. D. Pavlović · Defender300 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Hanuš · Goalkeeper300 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for 3 of 7 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Brightonavailable

  1. B. Verbruggen · Goalkeeper270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. P. Groß · Midfielder237 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. O. Boscagli · Defender225 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Brighton the most probability, 53.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Brighton · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Brighton · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Jablonec · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Jablonec +0.1, draw -0.8, Brighton +0.7 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Jablonec 0.0, draw +0.1, Brighton -0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (15 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,614 → 15,652), history from (11 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Jablonec -0.2, draw -0.2, Brighton +0.4 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (18 Oct 2026 → 20 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,652 → 15,788), history from (14 Oct 2023 → 16 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · Jablonec -0.3, draw -0.5, Brighton +0.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (20 Oct 2026 → 21 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,788 → 19,965), history from (16 Oct 2023 → 17 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–0: a draw. Version 5 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 18.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.717, Brier 1.195 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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