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Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II

Sparta RotterdamJ. Toornstra 39′ · L. Edward Martes 50′ · M. Zonneveld 57′
3–2FT · HT 1–1
Willem IIT. Vilhena 17′ · U. van Aalst 68′
Where to watch

· Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
  • Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sparta Rotterdam⁩ win. The model gave it 58.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.102 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.88 – 0.93⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦3.65 – 1.63⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.9%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.4%

⁦3–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 17 Oct, 19:31 UK time, 28 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 16 Oct on 911 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 17′Goal · Willem IIT. Vilhena
  3. 39′Goal · Sparta RotterdamJ. Toornstra
  4. 41′Yellow card · Willem IIF. Stam
  5. 50′Goal · Sparta RotterdamL. Edward Martes
  6. 57′Goal · Sparta RotterdamM. Zonneveld · (assist J. Toornstra)
  7. 66′Substitution · Willem IIM. Lemmens on · T. Vilhena off
  8. 66′Substitution · Willem IIT. Verheydt on · A. Zarrouk off
  9. 68′Goal · Willem IIU. van Aalst · (assist V. van Crooij)
  10. 70′Yellow card · Willem IIV. van Crooij
  11. 70′Yellow card · Sparta RotterdamL. Edward Martes
  12. 74′Substitution · Sparta RotterdamA. Roaldsoy on · J. Toornstra off
  13. 75′Yellow card · Willem IIT. Verheydt
  14. 78′Yellow card · Sparta RotterdamA. Roaldsoy
  15. 81′Substitution · Willem IIJ. Schuurman on · U. van Aalst off
  16. 81′Substitution · Willem IIC. Obi-Martin on · J. Slory off
  17. 83′Substitution · Sparta RotterdamT. Quintero on · C. Hatenboer off
  18. 83′Substitution · Sparta RotterdamM. Van Bergen on · R. van Cruijsen off
  19. 85′Yellow card · Sparta RotterdamM. Zonneveld
  20. 88′Yellow card · Sparta RotterdamB. Kuipers
  21. 88′Substitution · Willem IIE. Gürbüz on · M. Dekker off
  22. 90+3′Yellow card · Willem IIC. Obi-Martin

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots3
  • 3Corners4
  • 3.65Expected goals (xG)1.63
  • 12Fouls12
  • 384Passes396
  • 301Accurate passes293
  • 49%Possession51%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves5
  • 22Shots13
  • 11Shots off target6
  • 8Shots on target4
  • 4Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sparta Rotterdam
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Kuipers906.100111
B. Martins Indi906.600001
I. Babadi907.000141
L. Edward Martes906.910311
M. Young906.500303
M. Brouwer906.000000
M. Zonneveld907.910511
N. Verschuren906.700101
C. Hatenboer836.400203
R. van Cruijsen837.000360
J. Toornstra748.111112
A. Roaldsoy165.800100
M. Van Bergen76.700110
T. Quintero76.100000
Willem II
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Haen906.100000
F. Stam906.000103
H. ter Avest905.600004
M. Delanghe906.700000
N. Tjoe-A-On906.400103
V. van Crooij906.401232
M. Dekker886.100001
J. Slory815.900203
U. van Aalst817.210321
A. Zarrouk665.900011
T. Vilhena667.210210
M. Lemmens245.800000
T. Verheydt246.600110
C. Obi-Martin96.100000
J. Schuurman95.800100
E. Gürbüz26.300000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Willem II4-2-3-1

  1. 26M. Delanghe6.7
  1. 5H. ter Avest5.6
  2. 3F. Stam6.0
  3. 23M. Dekker6.1
  4. 24N. Tjoe-A-On6.4
  1. 18A. Zarrouk5.9
  2. 52T. Vilhena7.2
  1. 7J. Slory5.9
  2. 19U. van Aalst7.2
  3. 32V. van Crooij6.4
  1. 9D. Haen6.1
  1. 9M. Zonneveld7.9
  1. 11I. Babadi7.0
  2. 10C. Hatenboer
  3. 8J. Toornstra8.1
  4. 7R. van Cruijsen7.0
  1. 5B. Kuipers6.1
  2. 4B. Martins Indi6.6
  3. 6N. Verschuren6.7
  4. 3M. Young6.5
  5. 2L. Edward Martes6.9
  1. 1M. Brouwer6.0

Sparta Rotterdam5-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sparta Rotterdam · Bench

Coach: Rogier Meijer

Willem II · Bench

Coach: John Stegeman

Key players

Sparta Rotterdamavailable

  1. B. Kuipers · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 3 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Young · Defender709 min in 8 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. L. Edward Martes · Defender702 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Willem IIavailable

  1. D. Haen · Forward720 min in 8 matches · 3 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. F. Stam · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. U. van Aalst · Midfielder717 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sparta Rotterdam the most probability, 33.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sparta Rotterdam · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Sparta Rotterdam · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Sparta Rotterdam · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (920 → 919), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (919 → 915), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 16 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (915 → 911), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 12 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–2: Sparta Rotterdam. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 58.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.543, Brier 0.267 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Sparta Rotterdam32.8
Willem II17.8
Sparta Rotterdam — 32.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 21% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Willem II — 17.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 17% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 19% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 66% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 17 Oct, 19:31 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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