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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Sparta Prague v Lillestrøm

Sparta PragueJ. Alcócer 56′
1–1FT · HT 0–0
LillestrømT. Olsen 90+1′
Where to watch

· epet ARENA, Praha

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Martin Matosa
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • epet ARENA, Praha
  • Referee: Martin Matosa
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 21.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.225 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.01 – 0.78⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.12 – 0.84⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–0⁩ 12.5%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.0%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 8.3%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 09 Oct, 21:16 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 8 Oct on 15,135 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 18′Yellow card · Sparta PragueM. Suchomel
  3. 28′Yellow card · LillestrømG. Nyheim
  4. 30′Yellow card · Sparta PragueE. Singhateh
  5. 56′Goal · Sparta PragueJ. Alcócer · (assist J. Braut Brunes)
  6. 77′Yellow card · Sparta PragueR. Macek
  7. 90+1′Goal · LillestrømT. Olsen · (assist G. Nordh)
  8. 90+3′Yellow card · LillestrømH. Melland
Substitutions (10)
  1. 45′Substitution · Sparta PragueJ. Alcócer on · E. Singhateh off
  2. 61′Substitution · Sparta PragueR. Macek on · S. Heggheim off
  3. 61′Substitution · Sparta PragueJ. Mercado on · M. Jurásek off
  4. 61′Substitution · Sparta PragueK. Hoever on · M. Suchomel off
  5. 65′Substitution · LillestrømE. Kitolano on · D. Bassi off
  6. 65′Substitution · LillestrømT. Olsen on · F. Gulbrandsen off
  7. 70′Substitution · LillestrømH. Melland on · G. Nyheim off
  8. 73′Substitution · LillestrømF. Elkaer on · Y. Paintsil off
  9. 73′Substitution · LillestrømG. Nordh on · F. Va off
  10. 85′Substitution · Sparta PragueS. Eneme on · A. Irving off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 1.12Expected goals (xG)0.84

Attack

  • 15Shots6
  • 8Shots on target2
  • 4Shots off target3
  • 3Blocked shots1
  • 6Corners1
  • 1Offsides2
  • 1Saves6

Passing

  • 409Passes391
  • 343Accurate passes303

Discipline

  • 12Fouls9
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sparta Prague
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Ševinský906.800101
H. Sochurek906.700130
J. Surovčík906.400000
J. Braut Brunes907.701222
T. Guddal906.000110
V. Vitályos907.000101
A. Irving856.700221
M. Suchomel616.400102
M. Jurásek616.500013
S. Heggheim616.800000
E. Singhateh456.300210
J. Alcócer458.010301
J. Mercado297.200111
K. Hoever296.200001
R. Macek296.100010
S. Eneme56.200000
Lillestrøm
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Ottosson906.400012
L. Ranger906.800014
P. Dahlberg907.300000
R. Gabrielsen906.700003
S. Kristiansen907.100003
Y. Ibrahimaj906.600211
F. Va736.000011
Y. Paintsil736.500003
G. Nyheim706.300001
D. Bassi656.500001
F. Gulbrandsen656.200000
E. Kitolano256.300000
T. Olsen258.210210
H. Melland205.800102
F. Elkaer176.400102
G. Nordh176.801010

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Lillestrøm4-3-3

  1. 12Dahlberg7.3
  1. 2Ranger6.8
  2. 28Gabrielsen6.7
  3. 47Kristiansen7.1
  4. 26PaintsilOff 73′6.5
  1. 29Ibrahimaj6.6
  2. 21Ottosson6.4
  3. 14NyheimBooked 28′ · Off 70′6.3
  1. 22BassiOff 65′6.5
  2. 8GulbrandsenOff 65′6.2
  3. 20VaOff 73′6.0
  1. 14Braut Brunes7.7
  1. 27SinghatehBooked 30′ · Off 45′6.3
  2. 38Sochurek6.7
  3. 31JurásekOff 61′6.5
  1. 20HeggheimOff 61′6.8
  2. 18IrvingOff 85′6.7
  1. 15Vitályos7.0
  2. 6Guddal6.0
  3. 19Ševinský6.8
  4. 2SuchomelBooked 18′ · Off 61′6.4
  1. 44Surovčík6.4

Sparta Prague4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sparta Prague · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Lillestrøm · Bench

Coach: H. Ødegaard

Key players

Sparta Pragueavailable

  1. T. Guddal · Defender90 min in 1 match · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Alcócer · Forward90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. J. Surovčík · Goalkeeper90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Lillestrømlimited

  1. F. Va · Forward90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. F. Elkaer · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. L. Ranger · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 1 of 3 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sparta Prague the most probability, 44.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sparta Prague · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Sparta Prague · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Sparta Prague · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 21.0%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.559, Brier 1.074 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.