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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Mes Shahr-e Babak v Paykan

Mes Shahr-e BabakF. Gerami 90′
1–3FT · HT 0–2
PaykanF. Amiri 18′ · H. Ahmadi 42′, 64′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Paykan⁩ win. The model gave it 36.4%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.241 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.92 – 1.09⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 16.1%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 16.1%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.0%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 7.9%

⁦1–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 25 Oct on 697 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 13:00Kick-off
  2. 18′Goal · PaykanF. Amiri · (assist M. Najafi)
  3. 42′Goal · PaykanH. Ahmadi · (assist A. Madadizadeh)
  4. 64′Goal · PaykanH. Ahmadi · (assist A. Madadizadeh)
  5. 74′Yellow card · PaykanM. Najafi
  6. 90′Goal · Mes Shahr-e BabakF. Gerami · (assist M. Sefid)
Substitutions (9)
  1. 41′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakA. Abdullahi on · A. Enayatzadeh off
  2. 46′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakA. Ghezel on · G. Pourya off
  3. 46′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakF. Gerami on · M. Tarhani off
  4. 65′Substitution · PaykanS. Ashouri on · J. Asadi off
  5. 70′Substitution · PaykanM. Hakimzadeh on · A. Madadizadeh off
  6. 76′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakM. Hasheminasab on · M. Vahabzadeh off
  7. 84′Substitution · Mes Shahr-e BabakA. Roustaei on · A. Valizadeh off
  8. 84′Substitution · PaykanM. Sayyar on · H. Ahmadi off
  9. 84′Substitution · PaykanI. Karami on · M. Najafi off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Mes Shahr-e Babak

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Paykan

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Mes Shahr-e Babak · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Paykan · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Mes Shahr-e Babaknot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Paykannot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: Paykan is ahead by 0.5 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Paykan · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Paykan · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Mes Shahr-e Babak · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Mes Shahr-e Babak -2.4, draw -0.9, Paykan +3.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (23 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (696 → 697), history from (19 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–3: Paykan. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 36.4%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.011, Brier 0.610 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Mes Shahr-e Babak8.5
Paykan35.0
Mes Shahr-e Babak — 8.575% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Paykan — 35.075% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 15% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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