Skip to content

Moments that matter

0 live

Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

AZ Alkmaar v Twente

AZ Alkmaar
0–2FT · HT 0–0
TwenteS. Orjasaeter 84′ · L. Vennegoor of Hesselink 90+3′
Where to watch

· AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Alex Bos
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
  • Referee: Alex Bos
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Twente⁩ win. The model gave it 33.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.291 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.41 – 1.33⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.24 – 2.04⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.6%

⁦0–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 25 Oct, 18:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 24 Oct on 920 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:00Kick-off
  2. 4′Yellow card · AZ AlkmaarR. Daal
  3. 19′Yellow card · AZ AlkmaarE. Dijkstra
  4. 43′Yellow card · TwenteR. Pröpper
  5. 50′Yellow card · TwenteD. Weidmann
  6. 63′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarA. Oufkir on · R. Daal off
  7. 63′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarJ. Clasie on · W. Hoedt off
  8. 70′Yellow card · AZ AlkmaarA. Oufkir
  9. 73′Substitution · TwenteM. Rosiak on · B. van Rooij off
  10. 73′Substitution · TwenteL. Vennegoor of Hesselink on · W. Weghorst off
  11. 75′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarD. Kasius on · E. Dijkstra off
  12. 75′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarC. Stengs on · V. Byskov off
  13. 84′Goal · TwenteS. Orjasaeter · (assist Y. Taha)
  14. 85′Substitution · TwenteT. van den Belt on · Y. Taha off
  15. 85′Substitution · TwenteM. Pjaca on · S. Orjasaeter off
  16. 87′Substitution · AZ AlkmaarB. Kovacs on · M. Chávez off
  17. 88′Red card · TwenteD. Weidmann
  18. 90′Substitution · TwenteJ. Bawuah on · D. Rots off
  19. 90+3′Goal · TwenteL. Vennegoor of Hesselink · (assist J. Drommel)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 5Blocked shots7
  • 3Corners6
  • 1.24Expected goals (xG)2.04
  • 17Fouls16
  • 1Offsides4
  • 437Passes415
  • 368Accurate passes339
  • 51%Possession49%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 3Saves5
  • 13Shots16
  • 3Shots off target4
  • 5Shots on target5
  • 3Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

AZ Alkmaar
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Kwakman906.800031
J. De Busser906.400000
L. Schouten906.900013
M. Meerdink905.800400
P. Koopmeiners906.000102
W. Patati907.200233
M. Chávez876.600021
E. Dijkstra756.300003
V. Byskov756.100110
R. Daal636.500201
W. Hoedt636.900000
A. Oufkir276.700110
J. Clasie276.200000
C. Stengs156.400100
D. Kasius156.700000
B. Kovacs36.200100
Twente
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Adelgaard907.400016
J. Drommel908.401010
R. Zerrouki906.500211
R. Pröpper907.300301
R. Nijstad907.200112
D. Rots896.400101
D. Weidmann886.700211
S. Orjasaeter858.210113
Y. Taha857.701231
B. van Rooij737.100020
W. Weghorst736.400220
L. Vennegoor of Hesselink177.410100
M. Rosiak177.100100
M. Pjaca56.500000
T. van den Belt56.800000
J. Bawuah16.800000

xG (Highlightly)limited

AZ Alkmaar
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Kovacs0.42–0.33
M. Meerdink0.350.040.27
A. Oufkir0.150.120.29
P. Koopmeiners0.090.04–
W. Patati0.090.48–
R. Daal0.060.02–
V. Byskov0.060.19–
C. Stengs0.030.070.25
D. Kwakman–0.17–
D. Kasius–0.05–
E. Dijkstra–0.04–
J. De Busser–0.01–
J. Clasie–0.07–
L. Schouten–0.04–
M. Chávez–0.06–
W. Hoedt–0.04–
Twente
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Nijstad0.760.05–
R. Zerrouki0.270.07–
R. Pröpper0.180.010.35
Y. Taha0.150.40–
D. Rots0.140.12–
D. Weidmann0.120.030.08
W. Weghorst0.120.13–
L. Vennegoor of Hesselink0.060.000.16
M. Rosiak0.030.01–
A. Adelgaard–0.02–
B. van Rooij–0.11–
J. Drommel–0.01–
M. Pjaca–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Twente4-2-3-1

  1. 16J. Drommel8.4
  1. 28B. van Rooij7.1
  2. 3R. Pröpper7.3
  3. 4R. Nijstad7.2
  4. 29A. Adelgaard7.4
  1. 6R. Zerrouki6.5
  2. 8D. Weidmann6.7
  1. 11D. Rots6.4
  2. 10Y. Taha7.7
  3. 27S. Orjasaeter8.2
  1. 9W. Weghorst6.4
  1. 9M. Meerdink5.8
  1. 11R. Daal6.5
  2. 17V. Byskov6.1
  3. 7W. Patati7.2
  1. 6P. Koopmeiners6.0
  2. 21D. Kwakman6.8
  1. 5M. Chávez6.6
  2. 29W. Hoedt6.9
  3. 4L. Schouten6.9
  4. 22E. Dijkstra6.3
  1. 28J. De Busser6.4

AZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

AZ Alkmaar · Bench

Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Twente · Bench

Coach: John van den Brom

Key players

AZ Alkmaaravailable

  1. L. Schouten · Defender810 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. De Busser · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Koopmeiners · Midfielder805 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Twenteavailable

  1. R. Zerrouki · Midfielder797 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. W. Weghorst · Forward788 min in 9 matches · 4 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. B. van Rooij · Defender784 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: AZ Alkmaar is ahead by 4.0 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours AZ Alkmaar · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Twente · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Twente · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · AZ Alkmaar -1.2, draw +0.3, Twente +0.9 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (18 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (911 → 920), history from (14 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–2: Twente. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 33.7%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.087, Brier 0.663 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

AZ Alkmaar73.8
Twente80.0
AZ Alkmaar — 73.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 74% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 84% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Twente — 80.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 74% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 54% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 25 Oct, 18:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.