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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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FA Cup· 2026/27

Cray Wanderers v Bedford Town

Cray Wanderers
2–2Pens 4–3 · 90′ 1–1 · HT 1–1
Bedford Town

Cray Wanderers win 4–3 on penalties

Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Pens 4–3
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Pens 4–3
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 27.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.146 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.48 – 0.98⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.1%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 9.0%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 18 Oct, 08:10 UK time, 59 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 17 Oct on 15,648 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 54%Possession46%

Attack

  • 9Shots7
  • 4Shots on target2
  • 5Shots off target5
  • 0Blocked shots0
  • 9Corners6

Discipline

  • 5Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Team expected goals (xG): not supplied for this match.not supplied

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-upsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Key players

Cray Wanderersnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Bedford Townnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in FA Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Cray Wanderers the most probability, 20.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Cray Wanderers · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Cray Wanderers · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Cray Wanderers · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 27.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.300, Brier 0.821 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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