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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 7

Malavan v Foolad

MalavanE. Shahriari 4′
1–2FT · HT 1–0
FooladV. Amiri 88′ · A. Attar 90′
Where to watch

· Takhti Stadium, Bandar-e Anzali

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Takhti Stadium, Bandar-e Anzali
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Foolad⁩ win. The model gave it 32.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.269 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.86 – 0.92⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 19.4%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 15.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 13.1%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.1%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 7.2%

⁦1–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 12 Oct, 07:02 UK time, 31 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 684 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 14:30Kick-off
  2. 4′Goal · MalavanE. Shahriari · (assist A. Karimi)
  3. 53′Yellow card · MalavanG. Eslamikhah
  4. 57′Substitution · MalavanF. Jafari on · E. Shahriari off
  5. 57′Substitution · MalavanM. Papi on · M. Beheshti off
  6. 61′Substitution · FooladA. Bagheri on · Y. Mazraeh off
  7. 61′Substitution · FooladG. Latifi on · A. Jolani off
  8. 68′Substitution · MalavanV. Asgarpour on · A. Nesaei off
  9. 68′Substitution · MalavanB. Barzayi on · G. Eslamikhah off
  10. 74′Substitution · MalavanA. Khoshkafa on · A. Ramezani off
  11. 76′Substitution · FooladV. Amiri on · M. Mohammadi off
  12. 76′Substitution · FooladM. Kazemi on · S. Ansari off
  13. 80′Substitution · FooladA. Attar on · M. Sarlak off
  14. 88′Goal · FooladV. Amiri
  15. 89′Yellow card · MalavanG. Eslamikhah
  16. 89′Red card · MalavanG. Eslamikhah
  17. 90+11′Yellow card · FooladG. Latifi
  18. 90′Penalty · FooladA. Attar

Match summary

Written by a language model from the match record, not by a person. Not the founder's analysis, not the statistical forecast, not the community's view.

Malavan took the lead early in the match when E. Shahriari scored in the 4th minute, putting them ahead 1-0 at half-time. The momentum shifted in the second half, with Foolad FC making two late substitutions at the 61st minute, replacing Arshia Bagheri and G. Latifi. Malavan made their own changes at the 57th minute, with E. Shahriari and M. Beheshti coming off the bench.

Foolad FC equalised in the 88th minute through V. Amiri, who scored just before G. Eslamikhah was sent off with a red card in the 89th minute. The final score stood at 2-1 to Foolad FC, who secured all three points. This result follows a recent run of form for Foolad FC, who have won three of their last four matches, including victories over Mes Shahr-e Babak and Sanat Naft.

In their head-to-head history, the two teams have met five times, with Foolad FC holding a slight edge, winning two matches and drawing two, while Malavan has won one. Malavan’s recent form has been mixed, with two losses and a draw in their last five matches. The statistical model forecasted a 32.7% chance of an away win for Foolad FC, which came to pass.

Model ministral-14b-latest · version 1 · written · Written from timeline, forecast

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Malavan

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Foolad

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Malavan · Bench

Coach: Maziar Zare

Foolad · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Malavannot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Fooladnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives a draw the most probability, 5.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Foolad · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Foolad · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Malavan · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Malavan +14.1, draw -2.1, Foolad -12.0 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (5 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (221 → 679), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (31 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Malavan 0.0, draw +0.4, Foolad -0.4 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (679 → 678), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Malavan -0.2, draw 0.0, Foolad +0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (678 → 684), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Foolad. Version 4 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 32.7%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.118, Brier 0.683 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Malavan52.0
Foolad68.3
Malavan — 52.075% measured

Driven mostly by venue effect and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Foolad — 68.375% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 37% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 07:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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