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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord

PSV EindhovenG. Til 21′
1–1FT · HT 1–0
FeyenoordA. Hadj Moussa 55′
Where to watch

· Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
  • Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 21.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.169 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦2.36 – 1.73⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.92 – 1.19⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 7.0%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 6.4%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 5.9%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 25 Oct, 13:03 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 24 Oct on 920 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 13:30Kick-off
  2. 18′Yellow card · FeyenoordC. Vanhoutte
  3. 21′Goal · PSV EindhovenG. Til · (assist L. Geertruida)
  4. 26′Yellow card · PSV EindhovenMauro Júnior
  5. 40′Yellow card · PSV EindhovenF. Kostić
  6. 42′Yellow card · FeyenoordA. Hadj Moussa
  7. 52′Yellow card · PSV EindhovenK. Sano
  8. 55′Goal · FeyenoordA. Hadj Moussa · (assist L. Valente)
  9. 66′Yellow card · FeyenoordT. Watanabe
  10. 78′Yellow card · PSV EindhovenG. Til
Substitutions (7)
  1. 46′Substitution · FeyenoordJ. López on · J. St Juste off
  2. 76′Substitution · PSV EindhovenS. Cornecion on · K. Sano off
  3. 76′Substitution · PSV EindhovenM. Bro Hansen on · R. van Bommel off
  4. 84′Substitution · PSV EindhovenD. Man on · E. Bajraktarević off
  5. 89′Substitution · FeyenoordT. Kraaijeveld on · T. Watanabe off
  6. 89′Substitution · FeyenoordJ. Moder on · C. Vanhoutte off
  7. 89′Substitution · FeyenoordT. van den Elshout on · N. Ferri off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 1.92Expected goals (xG)1.19

Attack

  • 19Shots13
  • 6Shots on target9
  • 9Shots off target2
  • 4Blocked shots2
  • 6Corners5
  • 1Offsides1
  • 6Saves6

Passing

  • 457Passes443
  • 370Accurate passes361
  • 81%Pass accuracy81%

Discipline

  • 11Fouls10
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

PSV Eindhoven
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Obispo906.500301
F. Kostić906.900124
G. Til906.910200
I. Perišić907.300242
L. Geertruida907.001110
M. Kovář907.900000
Mauro Júnior907.200224
S. Dest907.300233
E. Bajraktarević836.900102
K. Sano766.700001
R. van Bommel767.500201
M. Bro Hansen146.300000
S. Cornecion146.600011
D. Man106.700100
Feyenoord
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Hadj Moussa908.610420
G. Read907.000202
G. Zechiël906.700010
L. Valente906.901151
M. Mármol907.300001
O. Targhalline908.200015
T. Ernst908.200000
C. Vanhoutte896.600000
N. Ferri896.200410
T. Watanabe896.700002
J. López456.900003
J. St Juste457.000002
J. Moder16.200000
T. Kraaijeveld16.300000
T. van den Elshout16.200000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

PSV Eindhoven
PlayerxGxAxGOT
G. Til0.390.010.89
A. Obispo0.360.01–
R. van Bommel0.300.21–
I. Perišić0.260.300.09
L. Geertruida0.260.420.17
F. Kostić0.130.030.46
S. Dest0.080.16–
D. Man0.040.01–
Mauro Júnior0.040.320.06
E. Bajraktarević0.030.30–
K. Sano–0.03–
M. Kovář–0.01–
M. Bro Hansen–0.00–
S. Cornecion–0.00–
Feyenoord
PlayerxGxAxGOT
N. Ferri0.900.010.27
A. Hadj Moussa0.170.360.86
G. Read0.080.050.05
L. Valente0.070.14–
C. Vanhoutte–0.04–
G. Zechiël–0.03–
J. Moder–0.00–
J. López–0.01–
J. St Juste–0.01–
M. Mármol–0.01–
O. Targhalline–0.63–
T. Kraaijeveld–0.00–
T. Ernst–0.00–
T. van den Elshout–0.00–
T. Watanabe–0.00–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Feyenoord4-3-3

  1. 1Ernst8.2
  1. 26Read7.0
  2. 4WatanabeBooked 66′ · Off 89′6.7
  3. 6St JusteOff 46′7.0
  4. 35Mármol7.3
  1. 8Zechiël6.7
  2. 34VanhoutteBooked 18′ · Off 89′6.6
  3. 28Targhalline8.2
  1. 23Hadj MoussaBooked 42′ · Goal 55′8.6
  2. 19FerriOff 89′6.2
  3. 10Valente (c)6.9
  1. 7van BommelOff 76′7.5
  1. 5Perišić7.3
  2. 20TilGoal 21′ · Booked 78′6.9
  3. 19BajraktarevićOff 84′6.9
  1. 17Mauro Júnior (c)Booked 26′7.2
  2. 24SanoBooked 52′ · Off 76′6.7
  1. 18KostićBooked 40′6.9
  2. 4Obispo6.5
  3. 2Geertruida7.0
  4. 8Dest7.3
  1. 32Kovář7.9

PSV Eindhoven4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

PSV Eindhoven · Bench

Coach: P. Bosz

Feyenoord · Bench

Coach: Giovanni van Bronckhorst

Key players

PSV Eindhovenavailable

  1. M. Kovář · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Obispo · Defender772 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. Mauro Júnior · Midfielder749 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Feyenoordavailable

  1. T. Ernst · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Mármol · Defender781 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. G. Zechiël · Midfielder764 min in 9 matches · 5 goals · 4 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives PSV Eindhoven the most probability, 23.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours PSV Eindhoven · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours PSV Eindhoven · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours PSV Eindhoven · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · PSV Eindhoven -1.9, draw +0.8, Feyenoord +1.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (911 → 920), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 21.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.546, Brier 0.957 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

PSV Eindhoven90.8
Feyenoord87.0
PSV Eindhoven — 90.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Feyenoord — 87.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 25 Oct, 13:03 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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