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FA Cup· 2026/27

Carlisle v Salford City

15:00

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Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelModel forecast

Carlisle 34.3%Draw 21.9%Salford City 43.8%

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.75 – 1.99⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.2%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 7.2%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 5.5%

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · 34.3% · 21.9% · 43.8%

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 31 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 30 Oct on 19,998 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Live timelineFrom kick-off

Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.

StatisticsFrom kick-off

Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-upsnot supplied

Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.

Key players

Carlislenot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Salford Cityavailable

No match of this competition played before this one, so no minutes to count yet.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in FA Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

Model forecastlimited

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

Carlisle 34.3%Draw 21.9%Salford City 43.8%

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0v1computed

The model gives Salford City the most probability, 9.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

  • Expected goals 1.75 – 1.99
  • Most likely scorelines: ⁦1–1⁩ (8.6%), ⁦1–2⁩ (8.2%), ⁦2–1⁩ (7.2%)

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Salford City · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Salford City · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Carlisle · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

Version 1 · Early pre-match · computed · model dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · data limited

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Founder’s analysis

Founder’s analysis

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Community forecast

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Three separate products. Each has its own source, method and record; none is blended with or relabelled as another.

Analysis from approved contributors

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