dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 31 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 30 Oct on 19,998 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited
Live timelineFrom kick-off
Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.
StatisticsFrom kick-off
Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.
Player statisticsnot supplied
Not supplied for this match.
xG (Highlightly)not supplied
Not supplied for this match.
Line-upsnot supplied
Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.
Key players
Carlislenot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Salford Cityavailable
No match of this competition played before this one, so no minutes to count yet.
Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.
Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in FA Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.
Statistical model
Model forecastlimited
Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.
Carlisle 34.3%Draw 21.9%Salford City 43.8%
dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0·v1·computed
The model gives Salford City the most probability, 9.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.
Expected goals 1.75 – 1.99
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (8.2%), 2–1 (7.2%)
Leading factors
Team strength · favours Salford City · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
Attack against defence · favours Salford City · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
Home advantage · favours Carlisle · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.
Version 1 · Early pre-match · computed · model dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · data limited