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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Westerlo v Antwerp

WesterloC. Sandra 45′ · N. Bassette 60′ · F. Tsimba 72′ · L. Flø 88′ · Y. Min-hyeok 90′
5–1FT · HT 1–1
AntwerpI. Salah 22′
Where to watch

· Het Kuipje, Westerlo

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: B. Van Driessche
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Het Kuipje, Westerlo
  • Referee: B. Van Driessche
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Westerlo⁩ win. The model gave it 46.5%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.186 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.74 – 1.34⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.28 – 0.92⁩
Goals
⁦5 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.5%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.0%

⁦5–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 11 Oct, 17:15 UK time, 14 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 10 Oct on 925 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:30Kick-off
  2. 22′Goal · AntwerpI. Salah
  3. 26′Yellow card · WesterloT. Van den Keybus
  4. 45′Goal · WesterloC. Sandra · (assist D. Ourega)
  5. 46′Substitution · WesterloF. Tsimba on · T. Van den Keybus off
  6. 50′VAR · Antwerp · Card upgraded to redM. Benitez
  7. 51′Red card · AntwerpM. Benitez
  8. 56′Yellow card · WesterloI. Sakamoto
  9. 57′Substitution · AntwerpS. Porozo on · M. Frey off
  10. 60′Goal · WesterloN. Bassette · (assist S. Saito)
  11. 65′Substitution · AntwerpC. Scott on · X. Dierckx off
  12. 65′Substitution · AntwerpM. Fofana on · I. Salah off
  13. 72′Goal · WesterloF. Tsimba
  14. 73′Substitution · WesterloR. Laalaoui on · N. Bassette off
  15. 75′Yellow card · AntwerpC. Scott
  16. 77′Yellow card · AntwerpS. Porozo
  17. 84′Substitution · WesterloY. Min-hyeok on · I. Sakamoto off
  18. 84′Substitution · AntwerpY. Tsunashima on · D. Foulon off
  19. 85′Substitution · WesterloN. Bohamdi-Kamoni on · S. Saito off
  20. 85′Substitution · AntwerpL. Narh on · S. Renders off
  21. 87′Yellow card · AntwerpÁ. Cortés
  22. 88′Goal · WesterloL. Flø
  23. 89′Substitution · WesterloP. Diong on · C. Sandra off
  24. 90′Goal · WesterloY. Min-hyeok · (assist A. Jungdal)

Match summary

Written by a language model from the match record, not by a person. Not the founder's analysis, not the statistical forecast, not the community's view.

KVC Westerlo dominated **Antwerp** in a thrilling encounter at **Het Kuipje**, securing a 5-1 victory after a tight first half. The match opened with **Ibrahim Salah** putting **Antwerp** ahead in the 22nd minute, but **KVC Westerlo** equalised just before halftime through **Cisse Sandra**, who assisted by **Dylan Ourega**. The momentum shifted decisively in the second period, with **Norman Bassette** doubling the lead at the 60th minute after a pass from **Shunsuke Saito**, followed by **Felix Tsimba**’s strike at the 72nd minute. **Antwerp**’s struggles deepened when **Mauricio Benitez** was sent off in the 51st minute, leaving them with a numerical disadvantage.

**KVC Westerlo** extended their lead further in the final stretch, with **Lasse Flø** scoring in the 88th minute and **Yang Min-hyeok** sealing the win in the 90th minute after a pass from **Andreas Jungdal**. Statistically, **Westerlo** controlled 57% of possession, outshot **Antwerp** 12-11, and had a higher expected goals total (2.29 to 0.81). Both teams were penalised with two yellow cards each, while **Antwerp** suffered a red card. The result marked a stark contrast to their recent form, with **Antwerp** losing four of their last five matches, while **Westerlo** entered the game on a three-game winning streak.

In their head-to-head history, **Antwerp** had held a slight edge, winning two of the last five meetings, including a 4-2 victory at **Westerlo** earlier this season. The forecast had favoured **Westerlo** with a 46.5% chance of winning, though the final score exceeded expectations. **Antwerp**’s defensive frailties were exposed, with **Westerlo**’s attacking trio—**Bassette**, **Tsimba**, and **Flø**—playing key roles in the rout.

Model ministral-14b-latest · version 1 · written · Written from timeline, statistics, line-ups, forecast

Statistics available

  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 3Corners3
  • 2.28Expected goals (xG)0.92
  • 17Fouls11
  • 1Offsides0
  • 86%Pass accuracy86%
  • 516Passes394
  • 442Accurate passes338
  • 57%Possession43%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 2Saves1
  • 14Shots13
  • 4Shots off target9
  • 6Shots on target3
  • 2Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Westerlo
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Lapage907.000––1
A. Jungdal907.301–10
D. Ourega906.301114
I. Fofana907.300–14
L. Flø907.910122
S. Kimura906.900––0
C. Sandra897.3101–1
S. Saito858.201–11
I. Sakamoto845.9001–2
N. Bassette737.310210
F. Tsimba456.710310
T. Van den Keybus456.200––0
R. Laalaoui176.300––0
N. Bohamdi-Kamoni126.500––0
Y. Min-hyeok127.9101–0
P. Diong86.700––0
Antwerp
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
Á. Cortés905.7001–2
A. Vermeeren906.600–41
R. Van Helden907.000–14
T. Brandon Nozawa905.300––0
T. Somers906.9002–0
S. Renders856.300––0
D. Foulon846.500––4
I. Salah657.510411
X. Dierckx656.600–12
M. Frey576.500113
M. Benitez516.3002–5
S. Porozo336.2001–0
C. Scott256.9001–1
M. Fofana256.500–10
Y. Tsunashima136.600––1
L. Narh126.300––1

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Antwerp4-2-3-1

  1. 41T. Brandon Nozawa5.3
  1. 17S. Renders6.3
  2. 20R. Van Helden7.0
  3. 3Á. Cortés5.7
  4. 5D. Foulon6.5
  1. 8M. Benitez6.3
  2. 48A. Vermeeren6.6
  1. 14X. Dierckx6.6
  2. 24T. Somers (c)6.9
  3. 7I. Salah7.5
  1. 9M. Frey6.5
  1. 9N. Bassette7.3
  1. 7S. Saito8.2
  2. 13I. Sakamoto5.9
  3. 39T. Van den Keybus6.2
  1. 14C. Sandra7.3
  2. 45I. Fofana7.3
  1. 28D. Ourega6.3
  2. 4A. Lapage7.0
  3. 5S. Kimura6.9
  4. 2L. Flø7.9
  1. 99A. Jungdal (c)7.3

Westerlo4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Westerlo · Bench

Coach: Issame Charai

Antwerp · Bench

Coach: Marvin Compper

Key players

Westerloavailable

  1. C. Sandra · Midfielder630 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 1 assist
  2. A. Jungdal · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. S. Kimura · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Antwerpavailable

  1. T. Brandon Nozawa · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. M. Frey · Forward543 min in 7 matches · 4 goals · 0 assists
  3. Y. Tsunashima · Midfielder540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Westerlo the most probability, 17.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Westerlo · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Westerlo · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Westerlo · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Westerlo -10.6, draw +4.0, Antwerp +6.6 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (3 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (336 → 926), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (29 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (926 → 925), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    Nothing the model reads changed between these two versions. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 5–1: Westerlo. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 46.5%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.766, Brier 0.430 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Westerlo54.6
Antwerp36.0
Westerlo — 54.695% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 24% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 39% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 72% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Antwerp — 36.095% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 11 Oct, 17:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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