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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Twente v Ajax

Twente
2–2FT · HT 0–1
Ajax
Where to watch

· De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Joey Kooij
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
  • Referee: Joey Kooij
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 26.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.137 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.58 – 1.34⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.56 – 0.72⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.5%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 6.7%

⁦2–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 08 Nov, 13:05 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 7 Nov on 929 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 13:30Kick-off
  2. 3′Goal · AjaxT. Arokodare · (assist O. Gloukh)
  3. 35′Yellow card · AjaxL. Rosa
  4. 52′Yellow card · AjaxT. Arokodare
  5. 59′Substitution · AjaxR. Bounida on · D. Klaassen off
  6. 60′Substitution · AjaxS. Amrabat on · Y. Bissouma off
  7. 60′Yellow card · TwenteR. Pröpper
  8. 64′Yellow card · AjaxA. Bouwman
  9. 66′Goal · AjaxR. Bounida · (assist O. Gloukh)
  10. 68′Own goal · TwenteD. Janse
  11. 69′Substitution · TwenteM. Pjaca on · Y. Taha off
  12. 70′Yellow card · AjaxO. Gloukh
  13. 75′VAR · Ajax · Penalty cancelledT. Arokodare
  14. 79′Substitution · AjaxD. Blind on · Y. Baas off
  15. 82′Yellow card · TwenteD. Weidmann
  16. 82′Substitution · TwenteL. Vennegoor of Hesselink on · A. Adelgaard off
  17. 82′Substitution · TwenteT. van den Belt on · D. Weidmann off
  18. 87′Substitution · AjaxM. Leonardo on · T. Arokodare off
  19. 87′Substitution · AjaxA. Ouazane on · O. Gloukh off
  20. 90+2′Yellow card · TwenteR. Zerrouki
  21. 90+3′VAR · Twente · Penalty confirmedR. Zerrouki
  22. 90+4′Yellow card · AjaxO. Wijndal
  23. 90+5′Yellow card · AjaxM. Leonardo
  24. 90+5′Penalty · TwenteW. Weghorst

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots2
  • 9Corners2
  • 2.56Expected goals (xG)0.72
  • 10Fouls11
  • 3Offsides2
  • 516Passes420
  • 438Accurate passes358
  • 55%Possession45%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Saves4
  • 23Shots6
  • 12Shots off target2
  • 5Shots on target2
  • 3Yellow cards5

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Twente
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. van Rooij906.500021
D. Rots906.700533
J. Drommel906.100000
R. Zerrouki906.600202
R. Pröpper906.300105
R. Nijstad906.500011
S. Orjasaeter906.800441
W. Weghorst907.410223
A. Adelgaard826.400002
D. Weidmann826.400421
Y. Taha696.300402
M. Pjaca216.600010
L. Vennegoor of Hesselink86.200100
T. van den Belt86.000001
Ajax
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Bouwman906.100001
D. Janse905.700001
J. Mokio906.500121
L. Rosa906.300104
M. ter Stegen906.800000
O. Wijndal905.900101
O. Gloukh878.102031
T. Arokodare877.410100
Y. Baas796.400001
Y. Bissouma606.700002
D. Klaassen596.200000
R. Bounida317.510101
S. Amrabat306.000001
D. Blind116.100000
A. Ouazane35.800100
M. Leonardo36.300000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Twente
PlayerxGxAxGOT
W. Weghorst0.970.050.82
D. Rots0.460.160.20
Y. Taha0.290.080.03
D. Weidmann0.190.280.15
L. Vennegoor of Hesselink0.150.00–
R. Zerrouki0.040.06–
R. Pröpper0.030.02–
A. Adelgaard–0.12–
B. van Rooij–0.07–
J. Drommel–0.00–
M. Pjaca–0.01–
R. Nijstad–0.01–
T. van den Belt–0.00–
Ajax
PlayerxGxAxGOT
T. Arokodare0.340.170.28
J. Mokio0.210.04–
O. Wijndal0.050.01–
R. Bounida0.050.010.39
A. Ouazane0.02––
L. Rosa0.020.02–
A. Bouwman–0.05–
D. Blind–0.00–
D. Klaassen–0.04–
D. Janse–0.03–
M. ter Stegen–0.00–
M. Leonardo–0.00–
O. Gloukh–0.30–
S. Amrabat–0.01–
Y. Baas–0.12–
Y. Bissouma–0.03–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Ajax4-2-3-1

  1. 1M. ter Stegen6.8
  1. 2L. Rosa6.3
  2. 30A. Bouwman6.1
  3. 36D. Janse5.7
  4. 5O. Wijndal5.9
  1. 28Y. Bissouma6.7
  2. 15Y. Baas6.4
  1. 18D. Klaassen6.2
  2. 24J. Mokio6.5
  3. 10O. Gloukh8.1
  1. 99T. Arokodare7.4
  1. 9W. Weghorst7.4
  1. 27S. Orjasaeter6.8
  2. 10Y. Taha6.3
  3. 11D. Rots6.7
  1. 8D. Weidmann6.4
  2. 6R. Zerrouki6.6
  1. 29A. Adelgaard6.4
  2. 4R. Nijstad6.5
  3. 3R. Pröpper6.3
  4. 28B. van Rooij6.5
  1. 16J. Drommel6.1

Twente4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Twente · Bench

Coach: John van den Brom

Ajax · Bench

Coach: Míchel Sánchez

Key players

Twenteavailable

  1. R. Zerrouki · Midfielder977 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. W. Weghorst · Forward924 min in 11 matches · 8 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. B. van Rooij · Defender902 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Ajaxavailable

  1. M. ter Stegen · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. Y. Baas · Defender823 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Mokio · Midfielder748 min in 11 matches · 3 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Twente the most probability, 10.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Twente · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours neither side · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours neither side · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Twente +1.1, draw +0.4, Ajax -1.5 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (919 → 924), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Twente +4.5, draw -1.3, Ajax -3.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 7 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (924 → 929), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 3 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–2: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 26.6%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.324, Brier 0.814 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Twente86.7
Ajax76.9
Twente — 86.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 74% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Ajax — 76.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — 2 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 08 Nov, 13:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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