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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Olympiacos v Sparta Prague

Olympiacos
1–0FT · HT 0–0
Sparta Prague
Where to watch

· Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Espen Eskas
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
  • Referee: Espen Eskas
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Olympiacos⁩ win. The model gave it 52.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.139 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.56 – 0.92⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.17 – 0.73⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.6%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.9%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 16 Oct, 20:05 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 15 Oct on 15,614 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 29′Yellow card · Sparta PragueJ. Zelený
  3. 38′Yellow card · Sparta PragueR. Macek
  4. 45′Substitution · Sparta PragueS. Heggheim on · H. Sochurek off
  5. 60′Substitution · Sparta PragueJ. Braut Brunes on · M. Vojta off
  6. 62′Substitution · OlympiacosA. González on · R. Yaremchuk off
  7. 62′Substitution · OlympiacosG. Puerta on · S. Hezze off
  8. 67′Substitution · Sparta PragueE. Singhateh on · M. Jurásek off
  9. 67′Substitution · Sparta PragueP. Vydra on · R. Macek off
  10. 74′Substitution · OlympiacosM. Pedersen on · M. Saliakas off
  11. 74′Substitution · OlympiacosN. Tiknizyan on · O. Bruno off
  12. 77′Yellow card · Sparta PragueE. Singhateh
  13. 78′Own goal · OlympiacosS. Heggheim
  14. 79′Substitution · Sparta PragueP. Kadeřábek on · K. Hoever off
  15. 80′Yellow card · Sparta PragueM. Suchomel
  16. 83′Substitution · OlympiacosG. Sá on · Chiquinho off
  17. 83′Yellow card · OlympiacosJ. Silva
  18. 90+2′Yellow card · OlympiacosG. Martins

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 9Blocked shots7
  • 14Corners3
  • 2.17Expected goals (xG)0.73
  • 7Fouls13
  • 3Offsides0
  • 472Passes326
  • 400Accurate passes263
  • 60%Possession40%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Saves2
  • 23Shots14
  • 12Shots off target6
  • 2Shots on target1
  • 2Yellow cards4

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Olympiacos
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
G. Martins907.200212
J. Silva906.700823
L. Pirola907.900210
P. Retsos907.700200
R. Freuler906.600311
S. Ortega906.800000
Chiquinho837.200091
M. Saliakas747.800122
O. Bruno747.400304
R. Yaremchuk626.500000
S. Hezze627.600105
A. González287.400100
G. Puerta287.000020
M. Pedersen167.300010
N. Tiknizyan167.100000
G. Sá76.800000
Sparta Prague
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
J. Surovčík906.600000
J. Zelený906.900003
J. Alcócer906.400302
M. Suchomel906.100112
S. Eneme906.800111
T. Guddal907.000001
K. Hoever796.200003
M. Jurásek676.200110
R. Macek675.900205
M. Vojta606.400110
H. Sochurek456.400000
S. Heggheim456.700002
J. Braut Brunes306.500110
E. Singhateh236.300100
P. Vydra236.600200
P. Kadeřábek116.700100

xG (Highlightly)limited

Olympiacos
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Freuler0.760.070.36
J. Silva0.390.11–
G. Martins0.300.05–
A. González0.220.000.75
O. Bruno0.180.03–
P. Retsos0.130.02–
L. Pirola0.110.000.77
S. Hezze0.050.01–
M. Saliakas0.040.36–
Chiquinho–0.68–
G. Puerta–0.10–
G. Sá–0.01–
M. Pedersen–0.20–
N. Tiknizyan–0.00–
R. Yaremchuk–0.01–
S. Ortega–0.01–
Sparta Prague
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Macek0.160.00–
P. Kadeřábek0.150.00–
J. Braut Brunes0.120.00–
J. Alcócer0.060.02–
M. Suchomel0.060.01–
S. Eneme0.050.020.01
E. Singhateh0.040.02–
P. Vydra0.040.00–
M. Jurásek0.020.00–
M. Vojta0.020.04–
H. Sochurek–0.00–
J. Surovčík–0.00–
J. Zelený–0.00–
K. Hoever–0.00–
T. Guddal–0.02–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Sparta Prague4-3-3

  1. 44J. Surovčík6.6
  1. 25K. Hoever6.2
  2. 6T. Guddal7.0
  3. 30J. Zelený6.9
  4. 2M. Suchomel6.1
  1. 38H. Sochurek6.4
  2. 28R. Macek5.9
  3. 5S. Eneme6.8
  1. 31M. Jurásek6.2
  2. 29M. Vojta6.4
  3. 7J. Alcócer6.4
  1. 11R. Yaremchuk6.5
  1. 10G. Martins7.2
  2. 22Chiquinho7.2
  3. 20J. Silva6.7
  1. 32S. Hezze7.6
  2. 19R. Freuler6.6
  1. 70O. Bruno7.4
  2. 5L. Pirola7.9
  3. 45P. Retsos7.7
  4. 2M. Saliakas7.8
  1. 1S. Ortega6.8

Olympiacos4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Olympiacos · Bench

Coach: Imanol Alguacil

Sparta Prague · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Olympiacosavailable

  1. G. Martins · Midfielder183 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. L. Pirola · Defender183 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Retsos · Defender183 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 2 matches played.

Sparta Pragueavailable

  1. T. Guddal · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Surovčík · Goalkeeper180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. J. Braut Brunes · Forward151 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 2 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Olympiacos the most probability, 25.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Olympiacos · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Olympiacos · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Olympiacos · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Olympiacos +1.6, draw 0.0, Sparta Prague -1.6 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Olympiacos. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 52.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.654, Brier 0.347 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.