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ModelModel forecast
dixon-coles-elo@0.7.0 · v1dixon-coles-elo@0.7.0 · v1 computed 14 Nov, 12:45 UK time
Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 13
Nassaji v Aluminium Arak
Data checked Details
- Data last checked ; unchanged since
- Kick-off UK time
- Referee: not supplied
- Where to watch
- Kick-off
- Referee: not supplied
- Data last checked ; unchanged since
Your pick
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ModelForecast details
Goals: expected and scored
- Model, before kick-off
- 0.78 – 0.79
Likeliest scores before kick-off
- 0–0 23.3%
- 1–1 15.2%
- 0–1 14.0%
- 1–0 13.9%
- 0–2 6.5%
Every version, never edited
- v1Early pre-match ·
dixon-coles-elo@0.7.0 · v1 computed 14 Nov, 12:45 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 13 Nov on 696 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete
Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions
Other predictions of this match
Founder’s analysis
None yet
Founder’s analysis
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Community picks
Under 5
Community picks
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.
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None yet
Approved contributors
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.
Three separate products, never blended.
- Statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Player statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Expected goals by player · Not supplied in this competition
We do not receive these for this competition, so they will not appear after kick-off either.
Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.
data delayed
- Line-ups · data delayed
Data for this module is delayed.
Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.
Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.
Coming, with limited coverage
- Live timeline · Coming, with limited coverage
Limited: our source supplies only part of this in this competition, so some of it can be missing for this match.
data delayed
- Line-ups · data delayed
Data for this module is delayed.
Not supplied in this competition
- Statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Player statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Expected goals by player · Not supplied in this competition
We do not receive these for this competition, so they will not appear after kick-off either.
Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.
Key players
Nassajinot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Aluminium Araknot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.
Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.
Statistical model
How the forecast was reachedavailable
The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.
Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.
The model gives a draw the most probability, 10.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.
Leading factors
- Team strength · favours Aluminium Arak · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
- Attack against defence · favours Aluminium Arak · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
- Home advantage · favours Nassaji · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
Power Index
Nassaji31.0
Aluminium Arak43.6
Nassaji — 31.075% measured
Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.
- Underlying team strength35% of the indexAhead of 23% of this competition
- Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the indexAhead of 43% of this competition
- Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the indexNot available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
- Venue effect10% of the indexAhead of 13% of this competition
- Rest, travel and schedule5% of the indexTop 10% of this competition — 14 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
- Competition context5% of the indexNot available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
- Managerial and team stability5% of the indexAhead of 12% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only
75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.
Aluminium Arak — 43.675% measured
Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, rest, travel and schedule and venue effect.
- Underlying team strength35% of the indexAhead of 50% of this competition
- Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the indexAhead of 13% of this competition
- Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the indexNot available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
- Venue effect10% of the indexAhead of 63% of this competition
- Rest, travel and schedule5% of the indexTop 10% of this competition — 15 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
- Competition context5% of the indexNot available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
- Managerial and team stability5% of the indexAhead of 29% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only
75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.
Formula [email protected], computed 14 Nov, 12:45 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.
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