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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Rio Ave v Famalicão

Rio Ave
0–4FT · HT 0–0
FamalicãoR. Beney 48′ · P. Santos 81′ · Ó. Aranda 85′, 90′
Where to watch

· Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: H. Carvalho
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
  • Referee: H. Carvalho
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Famalicão⁩ win. The model gave it 44.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.190 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.94 – 1.30⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.58 – 1.65⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–1⁩ 13.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.0%

⁦0–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 18 Oct, 19:02 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 17 Oct on 908 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:00Kick-off
  2. 42′Yellow card · Rio AveM. Patricio
  3. 48′Goal · FamalicãoR. Beney · (assist R. Pinheiro)
  4. 60′Substitution · FamalicãoP. Santos on · G. Koutsias off
  5. 60′Substitution · FamalicãoP. Salas on · T. Szűcs off
  6. 65′Substitution · Rio AveZ. Carlos on · J. Tome off
  7. 65′Substitution · Rio AveM. Sellouki on · S. Clemmensen off
  8. 66′Substitution · FamalicãoP. Moreira on · R. Beney off
  9. 76′Substitution · Rio AveR. Galčík on · M. Patricio off
  10. 80′Yellow card · Rio AveZ. Carlos
  11. 81′Goal · FamalicãoP. Santos · (assist Sorriso)
  12. 82′Substitution · Rio AveD. Špikić on · G. Liavas off
  13. 82′Substitution · Rio AveT. Monteiro on · D. Bezerra off
  14. 83′Substitution · FamalicãoM. Peña on · T. Van De Looi off
  15. 83′Substitution · FamalicãoÓ. Aranda on · Sorriso off
  16. 85′Goal · FamalicãoÓ. Aranda · (assist P. Santos)
  17. 90+3′Yellow card · Rio AveF. Petrasso
  18. 90′Penalty · FamalicãoÓ. Aranda

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 2Blocked shots3
  • 4Corners2
  • 0.58Expected goals (xG)1.65
  • 21Fouls15
  • 0Offsides0
  • 536Passes401
  • 464Accurate passes326
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Saves2
  • 7Shots12
  • 3Shots off target4
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 3Yellow cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Rio Ave
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Ndoj906.700013
D. Nascimento906.600102
F. Petrasso905.900000
J. Blesa906.300210
M. Vrousai905.000000
V. Hugo905.600000
D. Bezerra825.900210
G. Liavas826.700111
M. Patricio775.800000
J. Tome656.100000
S. Clemmensen655.500101
M. Sellouki256.000000
R. Galčík136.300001
D. Špikić86.200001
T. Monteiro86.400001
Famalicão
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
Garcia907.100000
L. Carević906.800000
L. Realpe907.200100
M. De Amorim906.900221
R. Pinheiro907.001022
V. G. Rofino907.100002
Sorriso837.701022
T. Van De Looi836.700102
R. Beney668.210111
G. Koutsias606.600111
T. Szűcs606.900202
P. Salas306.600101
P. Santos307.711110
P. Moreira246.800000
M. Peña76.500000
Ó. Aranda78.120200

xG (Highlightly)limited

Rio Ave
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Blesa0.370.040.51
D. Bezerra0.070.10–
G. Liavas0.060.03–
S. Clemmensen0.050.02–
D. Nascimento0.030.02–
D. Špikić–0.01–
F. Petrasso–0.01–
J. Tome–0.00–
M. Sellouki–0.01–
M. Vrousai–0.01–
M. Patricio–0.01–
R. Galčík–0.00–
V. Hugo–0.00–
Famalicão
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Ó. Aranda1.100.001.83
P. Santos0.150.100.21
M. De Amorim0.090.03–
L. Realpe0.080.000.12
P. Salas0.050.00–
T. Van De Looi0.050.00–
G. Koutsias0.040.02–
R. Beney0.030.010.47
T. Szűcs0.030.02–
Garcia–0.00–
L. Carević–0.00–
M. Peña–0.00–
P. Moreira–0.01–
R. Pinheiro–0.04–
Sorriso–0.20–
V. G. Rofino–0.01–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Famalicão4-2-3-1

  1. 25L. Carević6.8
  1. 17R. Pinheiro7.0
  2. 15V. G. Rofino7.1
  3. 3L. Realpe7.2
  4. 2Garcia7.1
  1. 6T. Van De Looi6.7
  2. 14M. De Amorim6.9
  1. 18R. Beney8.2
  2. 21T. Szűcs6.9
  3. 7Sorriso7.7
  1. 70G. Koutsias6.6
  1. 11J. Blesa6.3
  1. 7D. Bezerra5.9
  2. 79M. Patricio5.8
  3. 80S. Clemmensen5.5
  1. 54G. Liavas6.7
  2. 90D. Nascimento6.6
  1. 17M. Vrousai5.0
  2. 5A. Ndoj6.7
  3. 23F. Petrasso5.9
  4. 20J. Tome6.1
  1. 32V. Hugo5.6

Rio Ave4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Rio Ave · Bench

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Famalicão · Bench

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Key players

Rio Aveavailable

  1. J. Blesa · Forward696 min in 8 matches · 3 goals · 1 assist
  2. F. Petrasso · Defender643 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. D. Bezerra · Midfielder630 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 3 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Famalicãoavailable

  1. L. Carević · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. Pinheiro · Defender713 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. M. De Amorim · Midfielder707 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 3 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Famalicão the most probability, 16.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Famalicão · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Famalicão · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Rio Ave · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–4: Famalicão. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 44.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.804, Brier 0.458 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Rio Ave15.4
Famalicão63.5
Rio Ave — 15.495% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 14 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Famalicão — 63.595% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, rest, travel and schedule and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 12 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 18 Oct, 19:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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