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Picked from 21 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 14

Preston v Sheffield United

PrestonL. Leroy 2′ · C. Lang 76′
2–3FT · HT 1–3
Sheffield UnitedS. Peck 27′, 37′, 45+1′
Where to watch

· Deepdale, Preston

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: John Busby
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Deepdale, Preston
  • Referee: John Busby
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sheffield United⁩ win. The model gave it 52.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.138 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.11 – 1.79⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.96 – 2.02⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.3%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 8.8%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 6.1%

⁦2–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 03 Nov, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 2 Nov on 1,634 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 2′Goal · PrestonL. Leroy · (assist A. Vukčević)
  3. 27′Goal · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck · (assist H. Burrows)
  4. 37′Goal · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck · (assist B. Brereton Díaz)
  5. 45+1′Goal · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck · (assist R. Donovan)
  6. 66′Yellow card · PrestonL. Leroy
  7. 76′Goal · PrestonC. Lang · (assist A. Devine)
Substitutions (9)
  1. 13′Substitution · PrestonC. Lang on · J. Kenny off
  2. 45′Substitution · PrestonC. Wiley on · A. Vukčević off
  3. 45′Substitution · PrestonL. Lindsay on · J. Storey off
  4. 58′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedO. Arblaster on · J. Riedewald off
  5. 58′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedF. Seriki on · T. Chong off
  6. 64′Substitution · PrestonA. Devine on · J. Erabi off
  7. 71′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedJ. Ayew on · H. Choudhury off
  8. 83′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedS. McCallum on · R. Donovan off
  9. 90′Substitution · PrestonB. Potts on · S. Mills off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 40%Possession60%
  • 0.96Expected goals (xG)2.02

Attack

  • 6Shots18
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 2Shots off target9
  • 2Blocked shots4
  • 3Corners3
  • 3Offsides1
  • 2Saves0

Passing

  • 319Passes497
  • 214Accurate passes388

Discipline

  • 12Fouls7
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Preston
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Hughes906.200004
A. Moran905.600000
D. Iversen905.800000
J. Thompson905.400010
L. Leroy907.110111
O. Offiah905.500003
S. Mills895.700103
C. Lang776.810100
J. Erabi646.400110
A. Vukčević456.601011
C. Wiley455.900101
J. Storey456.400001
L. Lindsay456.000000
A. Devine266.101110
J. Kenny136.300000
B. Potts15.800000
Sheffield United
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Brereton Díaz907.301332
H. Burrows906.901123
J. Tanganga906.700102
M. McGuinness906.600101
M. Cooper905.900001
S. Peck909.330620
T. Cannon905.700201
R. Donovan836.901222
H. Choudhury716.700123
J. Riedewald586.600000
T. Chong587.000111
F. Seriki326.200011
O. Arblaster326.100001
J. Ayew196.400001
S. McCallum76.100010

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Preston
PlayerxGxAxGOT
C. Lang0.370.040.91
L. Leroy0.300.020.77
A. Devine0.090.30–
C. Wiley0.060.01–
S. Mills0.050.02–
J. Erabi0.020.04–
A. Hughes–0.07–
A. Moran–0.01–
A. Vukčević–0.07–
B. Potts–0.01–
D. Iversen–0.01–
J. Kenny–0.00–
J. Storey–0.01–
J. Thompson–0.11–
L. Lindsay–0.01–
O. Offiah–0.03–
Sheffield United
PlayerxGxAxGOT
S. Peck1.300.102.27
M. McGuinness0.180.00–
B. Brereton Díaz0.120.19–
R. Donovan0.110.510.29
T. Cannon0.100.01–
J. Tanganga0.070.03–
H. Burrows0.050.04–
T. Chong0.040.06–
H. Choudhury0.030.04–
F. Seriki–0.01–
J. Riedewald–0.01–
M. Cooper–0.00–
O. Arblaster–0.00–
S. McCallum–0.02–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Sheffield United4-4-2

  1. 1Cooper5.9
  1. 8ChoudhuryOff 71′6.7
  2. 5Tanganga6.7
  3. 25McGuinness6.6
  4. 14Burrows6.9
  1. 19ChongOff 58′7.0
  2. 42PeckGoal 27′ · Goal 37′ · Goal 45+1′9.3
  3. 44RiedewaldOff 58′6.6
  4. 11DonovanOff 83′6.9
  1. 9Cannon5.7
  2. 22Brereton Díaz7.3
  1. 9ErabiOff 64′6.4
  2. 38KennyOff 13′6.3
  1. 23Moran5.6
  1. 3VukčevićOff 45′6.6
  2. 15Thompson5.4
  3. 27LeroyGoal 2′ · Booked 66′7.1
  4. 17MillsOff 90′5.7
  1. 16Hughes6.2
  2. 14StoreyOff 45′6.4
  3. 24Offiah5.5
  1. 1Iversen5.8

Preston3-4-1-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Preston · Bench

Coach: G. Alexander

Sheffield United · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Prestonavailable

  1. D. Iversen · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. L. Leroy · Midfielder992 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. J. Storey · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Sheffield Unitedavailable

  1. J. Tanganga · Defender1,170 min in 13 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Cooper · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Peck · Midfielder1,007 min in 13 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sheffield United the most probability, 28.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sheffield United · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Sheffield United · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Preston · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (26 Oct 2026 → 30 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,645 → 1,633), history from (22 Oct 2023 → 26 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Preston +1.3, draw +1.1, Sheffield United -2.4 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 2 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,633 → 1,634), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 29 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–3: Sheffield United. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 52.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.638, Brier 0.334 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Preston6.6
Sheffield United47.4
Preston — 6.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 30% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Sheffield United — 47.495% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 28% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 03 Nov, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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