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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 10

Anderlecht v Westerlo

AnderlechtM. Cvetković 40′ · M. Stroeykens 43′ · T. Aasgaard 45′ · L. Ambros 60′
4–1FT · HT 3–0
WesterloN. Storm 81′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: N. Laforge
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: N. Laforge
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Anderlecht⁩ win. The model gave it 49.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.163 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.89 – 1.35⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.63 – 0.77⁩
Goals
⁦4 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.0%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 6.8%

⁦4–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 31 Oct, 19:25 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 30 Oct on 919 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 40′Goal · AnderlechtM. Cvetković
  3. 43′Goal · AnderlechtM. Stroeykens · (assist M. Cvetković)
  4. 45′Goal · AnderlechtT. Aasgaard
  5. 53′Yellow card · AnderlechtM. Stroeykens
  6. 60′Goal · AnderlechtL. Ambros
  7. 63′Substitution · WesterloL. Mbamba on · F. Ferraro off
  8. 63′Substitution · WesterloP. Diong on · I. Sakamoto off
  9. 64′Substitution · AnderlechtM. Kana on · M. Stroeykens off
  10. 65′Yellow card · WesterloL. Flø
  11. 72′Substitution · AnderlechtA. Omobamidele on · G. Biancone off
  12. 72′Substitution · AnderlechtT. Bentayeb on · M. Cvetković off
  13. 73′Substitution · WesterloN. Storm on · C. Congreve off
  14. 73′Substitution · WesterloY. Min-hyeok on · S. Saito off
  15. 81′Goal · WesterloN. Storm · (assist C. Sandra)
  16. 85′Substitution · AnderlechtA. Bertaccini on · J. Onia Seke off
  17. 85′Substitution · AnderlechtD. Sikan on · L. Ambros off
  18. 85′Substitution · WesterloF. Tsimba on · N. Bassette off
  19. 90′Yellow card · AnderlechtA. Omobamidele

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots3
  • 4Corners5
  • 2.63Expected goals (xG)0.77
  • 8Fouls14
  • 2Offsides1
  • 90%Pass accuracy87%
  • 551Passes453
  • 494Accurate passes395
  • 55%Possession45%
  • 3Saves3
  • 22Shots12
  • 11Shots off target5
  • 8Shots on target4
  • 2Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Anderlecht
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Maamar906.9002–3
C. Coosemans907.200––0
I. Koutsoupias906.900221
L. Pétrot907.500––0
L. Augustinsson907.300–22
T. Aasgaard907.710452
J. Onia Seke857.900351
L. Ambros857.910112
G. Biancone727.5001–1
M. Cvetković727.311411
M. Stroeykens648.3101–5
M. Kana266.300––0
A. Omobamidele186.500––0
T. Bentayeb186.300––0
A. Bertaccini96.200––0
D. Sikan96.7001–0
Westerlo
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Lapage908.3001–4
A. Jungdal905.300––0
C. Sandra906.601–22
I. Fofana906.900–31
L. Flø905.900–12
S. Kimura906.200––0
N. Bassette857.0003–1
C. Congreve735.9002–1
S. Saito736.300–21
F. Ferraro635.900–13
I. Sakamoto636.300–11
L. Mbamba277.000110
P. Diong276.600––1
N. Storm177.3101–0
Y. Min-hyeok176.500––0
F. Tsimba96.9001–0

xG (Highlightly) available

Anderlecht
PlayerxGxAxGOT
C. Coosemans–––
Westerlo
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Jungdal–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Westerlo4-2-3-1

  1. 99A. Jungdal (c)5.3
  1. 2L. Flø5.9
  2. 5S. Kimura6.2
  3. 4A. Lapage8.3
  4. 88F. Ferraro5.9
  1. 45I. Fofana6.9
  2. 14C. Sandra6.6
  1. 20C. Congreve5.9
  2. 13I. Sakamoto6.3
  3. 7S. Saito6.3
  1. 9N. Bassette7.0
  1. 49J. Onia Seke7.9
  2. 9M. Cvetković7.3
  3. 18L. Ambros7.9
  1. 19T. Aasgaard7.7
  2. 29M. Stroeykens8.3
  3. 30I. Koutsoupias6.9
  1. 6L. Augustinsson7.3
  2. 27L. Pétrot7.5
  3. 4G. Biancone7.5
  4. 79A. Maamar6.9
  1. 26C. Coosemans (c)7.2

Anderlecht4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Anderlecht · Bench

Coach: Vitor Bruno

Westerlo · Bench

Coach: Issame Charai

Key players

Anderlechtavailable

  1. C. Coosemans · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. A. Maamar · Defender765 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists
  3. L. Pétrot · Defender765 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Westerloavailable

  1. A. Jungdal · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. C. Sandra · Midfielder809 min in 9 matches · 2 goals · 1 assist
  3. S. Kimura · Defender803 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 9 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Anderlecht the most probability, 22.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Anderlecht · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Anderlecht · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Anderlecht · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (23 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (927 → 926), history from (19 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (24 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (926 → 923), history from (20 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Anderlecht -0.1, draw +0.1, Westerlo 0.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (25 Oct 2026 → 30 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (923 → 919), history from (21 Oct 2023 → 26 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 4–1: Anderlecht. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 49.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.700, Brier 0.381 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Anderlecht57.0
Westerlo63.1
Anderlecht — 57.095% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Westerlo — 63.195% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, rest, travel and schedule and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 69% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 31 Oct, 19:25 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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