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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Rizespor v Erzurumspor

RizesporA. Sowe 31′, 66′
2–1FT · HT 1–1
ErzurumsporI. Diabaté 37′
Where to watch

· Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: D. Tonusluoglu
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize
  • Referee: D. Tonusluoglu
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Rizespor⁩ win. The model gave it 48.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.160 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.43 – 0.91⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦3.59 – 0.68⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.9%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%

⁦2–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 08 Nov, 10:15 UK time, 14 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 7 Nov on 1,018 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 10:30Kick-off
  2. 31′Goal · RizesporA. Sowe · (assist I. Olawoyin)
  3. 37′Goal · ErzurumsporI. Diabaté · (assist G. Kerk)
  4. 45+1′Yellow card · ErzurumsporM. Cardoso
  5. 45′Yellow card · ErzurumsporG. Kerk
  6. 63′Substitution · RizesporT. Antalyalı on · M. Diakité off
  7. 63′Substitution · RizesporE. Bulut on · A. Kutucu off
  8. 66′Goal · RizesporA. Sowe · (assist A. Mebude)
  9. 76′Substitution · ErzurumsporM. Rodríguez on · M. Cardoso off
  10. 76′Substitution · ErzurumsporE. Tozlu on · G. Kerk off
  11. 77′Substitution · ErzurumsporM. Fettahoglu on · F. Ebosele off
  12. 87′Substitution · RizesporT. Talha Sanuç on · A. Mebude off
  13. 87′Substitution · RizesporD. Varešanović on · Q. Laci off
  14. 90+2′Yellow card · ErzurumsporM. Yumlu
  15. 90+1′Substitution · RizesporM. C. Tosun on · A. Sowe off
  16. 90+1′Substitution · ErzurumsporM. Yumlu on · G. Giorbelidze off
  17. 90+1′Substitution · ErzurumsporS. Akgün on · E. Owusu off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots0
  • 8Corners2
  • 3.59Expected goals (xG)0.68
  • 8Fouls14
  • 0Offsides1
  • 87%Pass accuracy79%
  • 615Passes366
  • 537Accurate passes289
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 3Saves4
  • 24Shots9
  • 12Shots off target5
  • 6Shots on target4
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Rizespor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Mocsi907.000––1
I. Olawoyin907.301231
M. Pala907.200–10
S. Bakayoko906.500––2
Z. Görgen906.600––0
Z. Ariss906.600412
A. Sowe897.7207–1
A. Mebude877.201–51
Q. Laci877.300274
A. Kutucu636.6002–1
M. Diakité636.300––1
E. Bulut276.600110
T. Antalyalı276.900–10
D. Varešanović86.300––0
T. Talha Sanuç86.600––0
M. C. Tosun1–00––0
Erzurumspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Gerxhaliu906.6001–1
B. Baiye907.000115
E. Taskiran906.900––0
I. Diabaté907.9102–3
N. Mujakić906.300––3
O. Ovacıklı908.000–24
E. Owusu896.300––3
G. Giorbelidze896.500––2
F. Ebosele776.200––3
G. Kerk766.001114
M. Cardoso766.2001–3
E. Tozlu146.7002–0
M. Rodríguez146.900–20
M. Fettahoglu136.300––0
M. Yumlu1–00110
S. Akgün1–00––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Rizespor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Sowe1.900.031.31
Z. Ariss0.380.040.04
I. Olawoyin0.340.650.11
Q. Laci0.290.660.45
A. Kutucu0.210.010.08
E. Bulut0.150.05–
A. Mebude–0.53–
A. Mocsi–0.02–
M. Pala–0.27–
M. Diakité–0.01–
S. Bakayoko–0.01–
T. Antalyalı–0.01–
T. Talha Sanuç–0.00–
Z. Görgen–0.00–
Erzurumspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
I. Diabaté0.510.010.96
M. Cardoso0.090.04–
A. Gerxhaliu0.060.00–
B. Baiye0.060.06–
E. Tozlu0.050.000.05
G. Kerk0.040.010.03
E. Owusu–0.01–
F. Ebosele–0.01–
G. Giorbelidze–0.02–
M. Rodríguez–0.07–
M. Fettahoglu–0.00–
N. Mujakić–0.00–
O. Ovacıklı–0.32–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Erzurumspor5-4-1

  1. 1E. Taskiran6.9
  1. 2F. Ebosele6.2
  2. 53O. Ovacıklı (c)8.0
  3. 4A. Gerxhaliu6.6
  4. 18N. Mujakić6.3
  5. 15G. Giorbelidze6.5
  1. 9G. Kerk6.0
  2. 6B. Baiye7.0
  3. 42E. Owusu6.3
  4. 20M. Cardoso6.2
  1. 19I. Diabaté7.9
  1. 9A. Sowe7.7
  1. 23A. Kutucu6.6
  2. 20Q. Laci7.3
  3. 10I. Olawoyin7.3
  4. 11A. Mebude7.2
  1. 6M. Diakité6.3
  1. 17Z. Ariss6.6
  2. 21S. Bakayoko6.5
  3. 4A. Mocsi7.0
  4. 54M. Pala (c)7.2
  1. 30Z. Görgen6.6

Rizespor4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Rizespor · Bench

Coach: Recep Ucar

Erzurumspor · Bench

Coach: Serkan Ozbalta

Key players

Rizesporavailable

  1. M. Pala · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Sagnan · Defender898 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. Y. Fofana · Goalkeeper810 min in 9 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Erzurumsporavailable

  1. A. Gerxhaliu · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. B. Baiye · Midfielder900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. N. Mujakić · Defender877 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Rizespor the most probability, 19.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Rizespor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Rizespor · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Rizespor · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Rizespor -0.6, draw -3.4, Erzurumspor +4.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 7 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,009 → 1,018), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 3 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–1: Rizespor. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 48.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.727, Brier 0.402 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Rizespor44.8
Erzurumspor37.3
Rizespor — 44.895% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, rest, travel and schedule and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 17% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Erzurumspor — 37.395% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 21% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 84% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 08 Nov, 10:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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