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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Kilmarnock v Motherwell

KilmarnockG. Kiltie 2′, 69′ · O. Pantaloni 58′
3–2FT · HT 1–1
MotherwellA. Lowry 17′ · S. Palmer-Houlden 56′
Where to watch

· The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: C. Scott
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
  • Referee: C. Scott
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Kilmarnock⁩ win. The model gave it 33.4%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.307 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.33 – 1.51⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.51 – 2.44⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.0%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.8%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.5%

⁦3–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 4 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 681 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 2′Goal · KilmarnockG. Kiltie
  3. 17′Goal · MotherwellA. Lowry
  4. 33′Substitution · KilmarnockJ. Brandon on · M. Kamara off
  5. 35′Substitution · KilmarnockA. Tshibola on · B. Rice off
  6. 52′VAR · Kilmarnock · Card cancelledG. Stanger
  7. 55′Yellow card · KilmarnockG. Stanger
  8. 56′Goal · MotherwellS. Palmer-Houlden
  9. 58′Goal · KilmarnockO. Pantaloni · (assist J. Brandon)
  10. 68′Substitution · MotherwellJ. Girdwood-Reich on · M. Moormann off
  11. 68′Substitution · MotherwellJ. Kanga on · A. Lowry off
  12. 68′Substitution · MotherwellE. Bjorgolfsson on · S. Palmer-Houlden off
  13. 69′Goal · KilmarnockG. Kiltie · (assist J. Brandon)
  14. 75′Substitution · MotherwellD. Levitt on · L. Fadinger off
  15. 77′Substitution · KilmarnockI. Owen on · G. Kiltie off
  16. 77′Substitution · KilmarnockD. Daniels on · O. Pantaloni off
  17. 81′Substitution · MotherwellJ. Koutroumbis on · T. Sparrow off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots4
  • 5Corners3
  • 1.51Expected goals (xG)2.44
  • 9Fouls8
  • 1Offsides3
  • 81%Pass accuracy80%
  • 514Passes478
  • 415Accurate passes381
  • 52%Possession48%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Saves4
  • 16Shots15
  • 4Shots off target4
  • 6Shots on target7
  • 1Yellow cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Kilmarnock
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
C. Ferrie908.900000
C. McCarthy906.300001
E. Ring907.200111
G. Stanger906.300001
J. Hugill906.700220
M. Schjønning-Larsen906.500000
T. Lowery906.300111
G. Kiltie778.720320
O. Pantaloni779.210241
J. Brandon577.302031
A. Tshibola556.700001
B. Rice356.500000
M. Kamara336.500010
D. Daniels136.500000
I. Owen136.600110
Motherwell
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Paulsen906.300000
E. Longelo906.900022
I. Said907.300130
J. Hodge907.500105
S. O'Donnell906.200002
T. Maswanhise906.700220
T. Sparrow816.900012
L. Fadinger756.900003
A. Lowry687.310111
M. Moormann687.200003
S. Palmer-Houlden687.910512
E. Bjorgolfsson226.300000
J. Girdwood-Reich226.200000
J. Kanga226.300001
D. Levitt156.700001
J. Koutroumbis97.000102

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Motherwell4-2-3-1

  1. 1A. Paulsen6.3
  1. 7T. Sparrow6.9
  2. 2S. O'Donnell (c)6.2
  3. 5M. Moormann7.2
  4. 45E. Longelo6.9
  1. 8L. Fadinger6.9
  2. 71J. Hodge7.5
  1. 18T. Maswanhise6.7
  2. 11A. Lowry7.3
  3. 19I. Said7.3
  1. 47S. Palmer-Houlden7.9
  1. 9J. Hugill6.7
  1. 11G. Kiltie (c)8.7
  2. 10O. Pantaloni9.2
  3. 8E. Ring7.2
  1. 18T. Lowery6.3
  2. 49B. Rice6.5
  1. 21M. Schjønning-Larsen6.5
  2. 14G. Stanger6.3
  3. 4C. McCarthy6.3
  4. 3M. Kamara6.5
  1. 12C. Ferrie8.9

Kilmarnock4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Kilmarnock · Bench

Coach: Neil McCann

Motherwell · Bench

Coach: Alfred Johansson

Key players

Kilmarnockavailable

  1. J. Hugill · Forward720 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 1 assist
  2. M. Schjønning-Larsen · Defender704 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. G. Stanger · Defender701 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Motherwellavailable

  1. A. Paulsen · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. M. Moormann · Defender695 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. L. Fadinger · Midfielder689 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Motherwell the most probability, 7.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Motherwell · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Motherwell · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Kilmarnock · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Kilmarnock -0.3, draw -0.1, Motherwell +0.4 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (684 → 681), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–2: Kilmarnock. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 33.4%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.098, Brier 0.679 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Kilmarnock25.7
Motherwell54.1
Kilmarnock — 25.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 11% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 54% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Motherwell — 54.195% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 80% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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