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Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace

BeşiktaşW. Ndidi 45+2′ · J. Olaitan 73′
2–2FT · HT 1–0
Crystal PalaceY. Pino 51′ · J. Mateta 55′
Where to watch

· Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Danny Makkelie
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul
  • Referee: Danny Makkelie
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 24.4%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.171 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.99 – 1.74⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.73 – 0.46⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.6%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 11.0%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.0%

⁦2–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·
  5. v5Early pre-match ·
  6. v6Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v6 computed 22 Oct, 17:45 UK time, 2 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 21 Oct on 19,965 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 6′VAR · Crystal Palace · Goal disallowedJ. Mateta
  3. 15′Yellow card · BeşiktaşW. Ndidi
  4. 39′Substitution · BeşiktaşS. Özcan on · F. Miretti off
  5. 45+1′Yellow card · Crystal PalaceY. Pino
  6. 45+2′Goal · BeşiktaşW. Ndidi · (assist S. Özcan)
  7. 51′Goal · Crystal PalaceY. Pino · (assist A. Khalaili)
  8. 51′VAR · Crystal Palace · Goal standsY. Pino
  9. 55′Goal · Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta
  10. 61′Substitution · Crystal PalaceI. Sarr on · D. McNeil off
  11. 61′Substitution · Crystal PalaceJ. Larsen on · J. Mateta off
  12. 64′Substitution · BeşiktaşJ. Olaitan on · K. Kayra Yilmaz off
  13. 64′Substitution · BeşiktaşM. Murillo on · T. Bulut off
  14. 66′Yellow card · BeşiktaşÜ. Akdağ
  15. 72′Substitution · Crystal PalaceD. Osorio on · Y. Pino off
  16. 73′Goal · BeşiktaşJ. Olaitan
  17. 75′Substitution · BeşiktaşD. Vlahović on · O. Hyeon-Gyu off
  18. 75′Substitution · BeşiktaşV. Černý on · I. Fakili off
  19. 77′Red card · BeşiktaşÜ. Akdağ
  20. 85′Substitution · Crystal PalaceE. Nketiah on · J. Larsen off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 0Blocked shots2
  • 1Corners3
  • 0.73Expected goals (xG)0.46
  • 11Fouls16
  • 0Offsides2
  • 518Passes355
  • 428Accurate passes261
  • 59%Possession41%
  • 1Red cards0
  • 1Saves0
  • 5Shots8
  • 3Shots off target3
  • 2Shots on target3
  • 2Yellow cards1

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Beşiktaş
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Nübel905.900000
K. Ouattara905.700002
L. Trossard906.700010
T. Djaló906.500003
W. Ndidi907.310102
Ü. Akdağ775.900102
I. Fakili756.900001
O. Hyeon-Gyu756.300100
K. Kayra Yilmaz646.200010
T. Bulut646.000002
S. Özcan517.001021
F. Miretti396.600000
J. Olaitan267.710101
M. Murillo266.000000
D. Vlahović156.500100
V. Černý156.600001
Crystal Palace
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Wharton906.200122
A. Khalaili906.101012
A. Disasi906.400001
C. Richards906.700100
D. Kamada906.400100
J. Canvot906.600001
T. Mitchell906.200104
W. Benítez905.900000
Y. Pino727.010132
D. McNeil615.800006
J. Mateta617.610201
I. Sarr296.600010
J. Larsen246.500001
D. Osorio186.000000
E. Nketiah56.500100

xG (Highlightly)limited

Beşiktaş
PlayerxGxAxGOT
W. Ndidi0.330.020.71
D. Vlahović0.130.00–
O. Hyeon-Gyu0.120.01–
J. Olaitan0.070.010.51
Ü. Akdağ0.030.02–
A. Nübel–0.00–
F. Miretti–0.02–
I. Fakili–0.00–
K. Ouattara–0.02–
L. Trossard–0.27–
M. Murillo–0.00–
S. Özcan–0.23–
T. Bulut–0.00–
T. Djaló–0.02–
V. Černý–0.00–
Crystal Palace
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Mateta0.140.000.68
Y. Pino0.140.280.36
T. Mitchell0.050.03–
A. Wharton0.020.12–
E. Nketiah0.020.00–
C. Richards0.010.01–
D. Kamada0.010.04–
A. Khalaili–0.05–
A. Disasi–0.00–
D. Osorio–0.01–
D. McNeil–0.01–
I. Sarr–0.01–
J. Canvot–0.01–
W. Benítez–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 3 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Crystal Palace3-4-2-1

  1. 44W. Benítez5.9
  1. 26C. Richards6.7
  2. 5A. Disasi6.4
  3. 6J. Canvot6.6
  1. 25A. Khalaili6.1
  2. 20A. Wharton6.2
  3. 18D. Kamada6.4
  4. 3T. Mitchell6.2
  1. 11D. McNeil5.8
  2. 10Y. Pino7.0
  1. 14J. Mateta7.6
  1. 9O. Hyeon-Gyu6.3
  1. 19L. Trossard6.7
  2. 8K. Kayra Yilmaz6.2
  3. 21F. Miretti6.6
  4. 29I. Fakili6.9
  1. 4W. Ndidi7.3
  1. 11K. Ouattara5.7
  2. 50Ü. Akdağ5.9
  3. 35T. Djaló6.5
  4. 22T. Bulut6.0
  1. 1A. Nübel5.9

Beşiktaş4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Beşiktaş · Bench

Coach: V. Italiano

Crystal Palace · Bench

Coach: Pierre Sage

Key players

Beşiktaşlimited

  1. M. Murillo · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Nübel · Goalkeeper180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. E. Topçu · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 2 of 8 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Crystal Palaceavailable

  1. A. Wharton · Midfielder180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. A. Disasi · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. T. Mitchell · Midfielder180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 2 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Crystal Palace the most probability, 30.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Crystal Palace · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Crystal Palace · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Beşiktaş · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Beşiktaş +0.8, draw +0.1, Crystal Palace -0.9 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Beşiktaş 0.0, draw +0.1, Crystal Palace -0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (15 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,614 → 15,652), history from (11 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Beşiktaş -0.3, draw -0.3, Crystal Palace +0.6 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (18 Oct 2026 → 19 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,652 → 15,768), history from (14 Oct 2023 → 15 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  5. v5 · Beşiktaş -0.1, draw -0.1, Crystal Palace +0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (19 Oct 2026 → 20 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,768 → 15,788), history from (15 Oct 2023 → 16 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  6. v6 · Beşiktaş -0.2, draw 0.0, Crystal Palace +0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (20 Oct 2026 → 21 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,788 → 19,965), history from (16 Oct 2023 → 17 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–2: a draw. Version 6 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 24.4%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.409, Brier 0.914 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.