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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Chadormalu v Foolad

ChadormaluM. Khosravi 54′
1–1FT · HT 0–0
FooladA. Attar 84′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 37.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.098 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.96 – 0.91⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 18.0%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 16.1%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.1%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 11.4%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.1%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 31 Oct, 14:03 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 30 Oct on 701 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 14:00Kick-off
  2. 41′Yellow card · ChadormaluRenny
  3. 45+4′Penalty missed · ChadormaluD. Torres · (assist D. Torres)
  4. 46′Substitution · ChadormaluA. Anafjeh on · R. Dehghan off
  5. 54′Goal · ChadormaluM. Khosravi · (assist D. Torres)
  6. 58′Substitution · FooladY. Mazraeh on · V. Amiri off
  7. 58′Substitution · FooladM. Sarlak on · M. Keshavarzi off
  8. 64′Substitution · ChadormaluM. Tabatabaei on · R. Mirzaei off
  9. 69′Yellow card · FooladA. Akvan
  10. 72′Substitution · FooladA. Attar on · E. Mahrooghi off
  11. 72′Substitution · FooladA. Bagheri on · O. Hamedifar off
  12. 83′Substitution · ChadormaluR. Bahan on · R. Alborno off
  13. 84′Goal · FooladA. Attar · (assist A. Razzaqpour)
  14. 88′Substitution · FooladM. Badragheh on · F. Ahmadzadeh off
  15. 90+2′Substitution · ChadormaluS. Mashhadi on · D. Torres off
  16. 90+3′Substitution · ChadormaluM. Ghojoghi on · A. Kalbasi off

Match summary

Written by a language model from the match record, not by a person. Not the founder's analysis, not the statistical forecast, not the community's view.

Chadormalu SC and Foolad FC settled for a 1–1 draw in their Persian Gulf Pro League clash, with neither side breaking through in a tightly contested encounter. The match remained goalless at half-time, but momentum shifted in the second period when **Mohammad Khosravi** opened the scoring for Chadormalu SC in the 54th minute. Foolad FC responded late on, with **A. Attar** equalising in the 86th minute to level the scores.

The game saw several key moments, including a missed penalty for Chadormalu SC in the 45th minute, where **Diego Torres** failed to convert. Both teams made tactical substitutions, with Foolad FC introducing **Vahid Amiri**, **Mohammadreza Keshavarzi**, **Ehsan Mahrooghi**, and **Omid Hamedifar** in the second half, while Chadormalu SC brought on **Reza Mahmoudabadi**, **Reza Mirzaei**, and **Rodrigo Alborno**. Yellow cards were also issued to **Renny** (Chadormalu SC) and **Arman Akvan** (Foolad FC) for late challenges.

Chadormalu SC entered the match on a strong run, winning three of their last five games, while Foolad FC had also been in fine form, winning four of their last five. Historically, the two sides had met five times, with Foolad FC holding a slight edge, winning two matches and drawing one, while Chadormalu SC had taken one victory. The statistical forecast had predicted a draw as the most likely outcome, with a 37.3% probability.

Model ministral-14b-latest · version 1 · written · Written from timeline, forecast

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Chadormalu

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Foolad

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Chadormalu · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Foolad · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Chadormalunot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Fooladnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: a draw is ahead by 4.8 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Chadormalu · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Foolad · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Foolad · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Chadormalu +0.1, draw -0.1, Foolad 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (29 Oct 2026 → 30 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (697 → 701), history from (25 Oct 2023 → 26 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 37.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.985, Brier 0.589 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Chadormalu76.3
Foolad81.3
Chadormalu — 76.375% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 70% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 79% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Foolad — 81.375% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 31 Oct, 14:03 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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