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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 7

Rizespor v Fenerbahçe

Rizespor
0–3FT · HT 0–1
FenerbahçeM. Asensio 12′ · İ. Can Kahveci 83′ · O. Aydın 87′
Where to watch

· Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: O. Ergun
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize
  • Referee: O. Ergun
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Fenerbahçe⁩ win. The model gave it 55.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.129 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.38 – 2.17⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.52 – 0.96⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 9.2%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 6.8%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 6.8%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.4%

⁦0–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time, 19 h before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 8 Oct on 1,013 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:00Kick-off
  2. 12′Goal · FenerbahçeM. Asensio · (assist K. Aktürkoğlu)
  3. 59′Substitution · Fenerbahçeİ. Can Kahveci on · M. Asensio off
  4. 66′Substitution · RizesporI. Doicaru on · A. Kutucu off
  5. 72′Substitution · RizesporC. Bozdoğan on · Q. Laci off
  6. 72′Substitution · RizesporE. Bulut on · A. Mebude off
  7. 80′Substitution · FenerbahçeR. Lukaku on · V. Muriqi off
  8. 80′Substitution · FenerbahçeO. Aydın on · M. Greenwood off
  9. 82′Substitution · RizesporG. Borrelli on · T. Antalyalı off
  10. 83′Goal · Fenerbahçeİ. Can Kahveci · (assist O. Aydın)
  11. 87′Goal · FenerbahçeO. Aydın · (assist R. Lukaku)
  12. 88′Substitution · FenerbahçeK. Peprah on · K. Aktürkoğlu off
  13. 88′Substitution · Fenerbahçeİ. Yüksek on · M. Guendouzi off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 5Blocked shots5
  • 2Corners5
  • 1.52Expected goals (xG)0.96
  • 4Fouls6
  • 0Offsides3
  • 84%Pass accuracy81%
  • 454Passes458
  • 383Accurate passes373
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 2Saves5
  • 19Shots13
  • 9Shots off target3
  • 5Shots on target5

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Rizespor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sowe906.300110
A. Mocsi906.200––1
I. Olawoyin906.900412
M. Pala906.500–24
M. Sagnan907.5001–4
Y. Fofana905.500––0
Z. Ariss906.300132
T. Antalyalı827.700–11
A. Mebude726.900112
Q. Laci726.600211
A. Kutucu666.900133
I. Doicaru246.3002–1
C. Bozdoğan186.600–10
E. Bulut186.600110
G. Borrelli86.300––0
Fenerbahçe
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Brown906.900–14
Ederson907.900––0
M. Škriniar907.200––2
N'Golo Kanté907.700–14
N. Aké907.500––1
N. Semedo907.200––3
K. Aktürkoğlu886.301120
M. Guendouzi887.700111
M. Greenwood807.000210
V. Muriqi806.900––0
M. Asensio597.610110
İ. Can Kahveci318.210110
O. Aydın108.211110
R. Lukaku106.301110
İ. Yüksek2–00–11
K. Peprah2–00––0

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Fenerbahçe4-2-3-1

  1. 31Ederson7.9
  1. 27N. Semedo7.2
  2. 37M. Škriniar (c)7.2
  3. 15N. Aké7.5
  4. 3A. Brown6.9
  1. 91N'Golo Kanté7.7
  2. 6M. Guendouzi7.7
  1. 11M. Greenwood7.0
  2. 10M. Asensio7.6
  3. 7K. Aktürkoğlu6.3
  1. 19V. Muriqi6.9
  1. 9A. Sowe6.3
  1. 23A. Kutucu6.9
  2. 20Q. Laci6.6
  3. 10I. Olawoyin6.9
  4. 11A. Mebude6.9
  1. 14T. Antalyalı (c)7.7
  1. 17Z. Ariss6.3
  2. 93M. Sagnan7.5
  3. 4A. Mocsi6.2
  4. 54M. Pala6.5
  1. 75Y. Fofana5.5

Rizespor4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Rizespor · Bench

Coach: Recep Ucar

Fenerbahçe · Bench

Coach: Ismail Kartal

Key players

Rizesporavailable

  1. M. Pala · Defender540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. Y. Fofana · Goalkeeper540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  3. M. Sagnan · Defender538 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 6 matches played.

Fenerbahçeavailable

  1. N. Aké · Defender540 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Škriniar · Defender519 min in 6 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. M. Guendouzi · Midfielder504 min in 6 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 6 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Fenerbahçe the most probability, 31.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Fenerbahçe · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Fenerbahçe · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Rizespor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Rizespor -1.8, draw +0.2, Fenerbahçe +1.6 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (2 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (339 → 1,013), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (28 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–3: Fenerbahçe. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 55.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.599, Brier 0.304 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Rizespor61.1
Fenerbahçe85.7
Rizespor — 61.195% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, rest, travel and schedule and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 65% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 19 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Fenerbahçe — 85.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 20 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 44% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 09 Oct, 21:15 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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