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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Arouca v Estrela da Amadora

AroucaI. Barbero 5′
1–0FT · HT 1–0
Estrela da Amadora
Where to watch

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: L. Filipe
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
  • Referee: L. Filipe
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Arouca⁩ win. The model gave it 53.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.133 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.79 – 1.09⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.78 – 1.43⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.8%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 6.2%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 11 Oct, 20:02 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 10 Oct on 916 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:30Kick-off
  2. 5′Goal · AroucaI. Barbero · (assist N. Djouahra)
  3. 45+8′Yellow card · AroucaI. Barbero
  4. 45+6′Yellow card · AroucaP. Gozálbez
  5. 45+4′Penalty missed · Estrela da AmadoraI. Stoica
  6. 45+8′Yellow card · Estrela da AmadoraA. Marcus
  7. 50′Yellow card · Estrela da AmadoraM. Scholze
  8. 57′Substitution · AroucaP. Santos on · P. Gozálbez off
  9. 61′Substitution · Estrela da AmadoraB. Souza on · I. Stoica off
  10. 62′Yellow card · AroucaP. Santos
  11. 62′Substitution · Estrela da AmadoraJ. Encada on · M. Scholze off
  12. 65′Substitution · AroucaD. Nandín on · I. Barbero off
  13. 65′Substitution · AroucaG. Rukavina on · N. Djouahra off
  14. 79′Substitution · AroucaH. Lee on · T. Fukui off
  15. 79′Substitution · AroucaB. Mansilla on · A. Trezza off
  16. 82′Substitution · Estrela da AmadoraE. Pedro Vanga on · E. Doue off
  17. 88′Yellow card · AroucaJ. Fontán
  18. 90+1′Substitution · Estrela da AmadoraK. Höög Jansson on · S. Serra off
  19. 90+1′Substitution · Estrela da AmadoraAlisson on · L. Zvonarek off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 2Blocked shots2
  • 5Corners6
  • 0.78Expected goals (xG)1.43
  • 10Fouls7
  • 2Offsides3
  • 78%Pass accuracy87%
  • 338Passes578
  • 265Accurate passes505
  • 37%Possession63%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves2
  • 7Shots11
  • 2Shots off target7
  • 3Shots on target2
  • 5Yellow cards2

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Arouca
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Van Ee906.900002
I. de Arruabarrena907.300000
J. Sánchez906.900000
J. Fontán907.300001
O. Lebedenko907.200011
T. Esgaio907.200101
A. Trezza796.300103
T. Fukui797.200011
I. Barbero657.010100
N. Djouahra657.301112
P. Gozálbez576.500003
P. Santos336.900003
D. Nandín256.200100
G. Rukavina256.600020
B. Mansilla116.600102
H. Lee116.700000
Estrela da Amadora
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Marcus906.500101
L. Antonetti906.300010
L. Linck907.300000
L. Patrick907.2–0––1
P. Luan907.200001
R. Soares906.500010
S. Leković906.900101
L. Zvonarek896.900100
S. Serra897.900212
E. Doue827.500111
M. Scholze626.200020
I. Stoica616.300401
B. Souza296.600000
J. Encada286.900000
E. Pedro Vanga86.700000
Alisson1–00000
K. Höög Jansson1–00000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Estrela da Amadora4-2-3-1

  1. 24L. Linck7.3
  1. 21M. Scholze6.2
  2. 30L. Patrick7.2
  3. 5S. Leković (c)6.9
  4. 55R. Soares6.5
  1. 78S. Serra7.9
  2. 39E. Doue7.5
  1. 99A. Marcus6.5
  2. 14L. Zvonarek6.9
  3. 10I. Stoica6.3
  1. 37L. Antonetti6.3
  1. 17I. Barbero7.0
  1. 7N. Djouahra7.3
  2. 10P. Gozálbez6.5
  3. 19A. Trezza6.3
  1. 8T. Fukui7.2
  2. 6E. Van Ee6.9
  1. 18O. Lebedenko7.2
  2. 3J. Fontán7.3
  3. 15J. Sánchez6.9
  4. 28T. Esgaio (c)7.2
  1. 12I. de Arruabarrena7.3

Arouca4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Arouca · Bench

Coach: Vitor Severino

Estrela da Amadora · Bench

Coach: Pepa

Key players

Aroucaavailable

  1. J. Fontán · Defender630 min in 7 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists
  2. I. de Arruabarrena · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. T. Esgaio · Defender628 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Estrela da Amadoraavailable

  1. L. Linck · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. Soares · Defender629 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists
  3. A. Marcus · Midfielder623 min in 7 matches · 4 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Arouca the most probability, 30.7 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Arouca · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Arouca · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Arouca · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Arouca -1.8, draw +2.4, Estrela da Amadora -0.6 points (early pre-match).
    6 inputs changed together — model version ([email protected] → [email protected]), history up to (3 Oct 2026 → 8 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (342 → 917), long-term ratings (not used → used), history from (29 Aug 2025 → 4 Oct 2023), input completeness (limited → available) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (917 → 916), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    Nothing the model reads changed between these two versions. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Arouca. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 53.9%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.619, Brier 0.319 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Arouca61.5
Estrela da Amadora47.9
Arouca — 61.595% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, rest, travel and schedule and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 71% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 22 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Estrela da Amadora — 47.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 30% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 21 days since the previous match, 0 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 84% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 11 Oct, 20:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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