Skip to content

Moments that matter

1 live

Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
← ScoresTimes: UK time

UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 4

Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb

Sunderland
0–2FT · HT 0–2
Dinamo ZagrebL. Stojković 22′ · D. Drena Beljo 39′
Where to watch

· Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Andrea Colombo
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Stadium of Light, Sunderland
  • Referee: Andrea Colombo
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Dinamo Zagreb⁩ win. The model gave it 14.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.571 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.93 – 0.79⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.80 – 1.51⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 12.3%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 12.3%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦3–0⁩ 7.9%

⁦0–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 05 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 4 Nov on 20,026 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 22′Goal · Dinamo ZagrebL. Stojković
  3. 25′Yellow card · Dinamo ZagrebN. Galešić
  4. 28′Yellow card · SunderlandG. Xhaka
  5. 36′Yellow card · SunderlandK. Danso
  6. 39′Goal · Dinamo ZagrebD. Drena Beljo · (assist L. Stojković)
  7. 46′Yellow card · Dinamo ZagrebL. Kačavenda
  8. 47′VAR · Sunderland · Goal disallowedW. Isidor
  9. 55′Yellow card · SunderlandT. Hume
Substitutions (10)
  1. 45′Substitution · SunderlandR. Mandava on · D. Methalie off
  2. 45′Substitution · SunderlandE. Le Fée on · C. Rigg off
  3. 45′Substitution · SunderlandN. Sadiki on · J. Ahoka off
  4. 45′Substitution · SunderlandT. Hume on · T. Meunier off
  5. 45′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebS. Radeljić on · S. Domínguez off
  6. 64′Substitution · SunderlandB. Brobbey on · W. Isidor off
  7. 64′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebL. Ivanušec on · L. Stojković off
  8. 70′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebS. Prevljak on · D. Drena Beljo off
  9. 80′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebM. Perez Vinlöf on · B. Goda off
  10. 80′Substitution · Dinamo ZagrebA. Hoxha on · M. Oršić off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 62%Possession38%
  • 1.80Expected goals (xG)1.51

Attack

  • 17Shots9
  • 7Shots on target4
  • 6Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 5Corners3
  • 3Offsides0
  • 1Saves7

Passing

  • 455Passes280
  • 382Accurate passes194

Discipline

  • 9Fouls17
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sunderland
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
G. Xhaka906.800122
K. Danso906.700112
M. Fofana906.600211
N. Angulo906.600015
O. Alderete906.600000
R. Roefs905.800000
W. Isidor646.500400
C. Rigg456.400020
D. Methalie456.000002
E. Le Fée456.300211
J. Ahoka456.000102
N. Sadiki456.900111
R. Mandava456.200100
T. Meunier456.400112
T. Hume455.400111
B. Brobbey266.300200
Dinamo Zagreb
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Kotarski908.300000
J. Mišić906.300111
L. Kačavenda906.500005
M. Lisica906.200011
M. Valinčić906.100011
N. Galešić906.100001
B. Goda806.400011
M. Oršić806.400302
D. Drena Beljo707.810201
L. Stojković649.011321
S. Domínguez456.700002
S. Radeljić457.100001
L. Ivanušec266.600001
S. Prevljak206.000000
A. Hoxha106.500000
M. Perez Vinlöf106.600001

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Sunderland
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Brobbey0.390.030.23
K. Danso0.260.02–
R. Mandava0.240.01–
J. Ahoka0.220.000.44
W. Isidor0.160.000.18
T. Hume0.110.02–
M. Fofana0.090.110.14
T. Meunier0.090.02–
E. Le Fée0.060.130.02
G. Xhaka0.020.370.11
N. Sadiki0.020.12–
C. Rigg–0.16–
D. Methalie–0.00–
N. Angulo–0.16–
O. Alderete–0.14–
R. Roefs–0.00–
Dinamo Zagreb
PlayerxGxAxGOT
D. Drena Beljo0.710.120.26
M. Oršić0.290.02–
L. Stojković0.280.750.28
J. Mišić0.010.01–
A. Hoxha–0.00–
B. Goda–0.01–
D. Kotarski–0.00–
L. Ivanušec–0.00–
L. Kačavenda–0.01–
M. Lisica–0.04–
M. Perez Vinlöf–0.00–
M. Valinčić–0.11–
N. Galešić–0.00–
S. Domínguez–0.01–
S. Radeljić–0.00–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 1 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Dinamo Zagreb4-1-4-1

  1. 24Kotarski8.3
  1. 25Valinčić6.1
  2. 36DomínguezOff 45′6.7
  3. 15GalešićBooked 25′6.1
  4. 3GodaOff 80′6.4
  1. 27Mišić6.3
  1. 21Lisica6.2
  2. 80KačavendaBooked 46′6.5
  3. 10StojkovićGoal 22′ · Off 64′9.0
  4. 99OršićOff 80′6.4
  1. 9Drena BeljoGoal 39′ · Off 70′7.8
  1. 18IsidorOff 64′6.5
  1. 39Fofana6.6
  2. 11RiggOff 45′6.4
  3. 10Angulo6.6
  1. 29AhokaOff 45′6.0
  2. 34XhakaBooked 28′6.8
  1. 6MethalieOff 45′6.0
  2. 15Alderete6.6
  3. 4DansoBooked 36′6.7
  4. 12MeunierOff 45′6.4
  1. 22Roefs5.8

Sunderland4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sunderland · Bench

Coach: R. Le Bris

Dinamo Zagreb · Bench

Coach: J. Leko

Key players

Sunderlandavailable

  1. R. Roefs · Goalkeeper270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Fofana · Midfielder215 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. N. Sadiki · Midfielder207 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Dinamo Zagrebavailable

  1. D. Kotarski · Goalkeeper270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Mišić · Midfielder270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Domínguez · Defender270 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 3 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sunderland the most probability, 41.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sunderland · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Sunderland · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Sunderland · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 29 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 20,024), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 25 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Sunderland -0.4, draw +0.1, Dinamo Zagreb +0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (29 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,024 → 19,987), history from (25 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Sunderland -0.8, draw +0.5, Dinamo Zagreb +0.3 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 4 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,987 → 20,026), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 31 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–2: Dinamo Zagreb. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 14.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.946, Brier 1.190 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.