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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Konyaspor v Gençlerbirliği

KonyasporC. Awaziem 43′, 56′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Gençlerbirliği
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: O. Cakir
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: O. Cakir
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Konyaspor⁩ win. The model gave it 49.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.154 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.44 – 0.89⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.27 – 1.16⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 13.1%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.1%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.0%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 18 Oct, 14:02 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 17 Oct on 1,003 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 13:00Kick-off
  2. 30′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiM. Cavusoglu on · D. Goutas off
  3. 35′Yellow card · GençlerbirliğiO. Diabate
  4. 38′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiO. Ülgün on · S. Koita off
  5. 43′Goal · KonyasporC. Awaziem · (assist D. Türüç)
  6. 45+2′Yellow card · GençlerbirliğiF. Üzüm
  7. 46′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiA. Malouda Traoré on · S. Uçan off
  8. 55′Yellow card · GençlerbirliğiA. Malouda Traoré
  9. 56′Goal · KonyasporC. Awaziem
  10. 57′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiT. Gouveia on · F. Üzüm off
  11. 57′Substitution · GençlerbirliğiV. Orakpo on · P. Mendes off
  12. 75′Penalty missed · GençlerbirliğiF. Tongya
  13. 76′Substitution · KonyasporR. Tóth on · J. Dompé off
  14. 76′Substitution · KonyasporD. Gonçalves on · E. Bardhi off
  15. 83′Substitution · KonyasporU. Yazğılı on · M. İbrahimoğlu off
  16. 84′Substitution · KonyasporE. Colley on · D. Türüç off
  17. 85′Yellow card · KonyasporJ. Muleka
  18. 87′Substitution · KonyasporM. Mohamed on · J. Muleka off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots1
  • 9Corners3
  • 2.27Expected goals (xG)1.16
  • 12Fouls19
  • 0Offsides2
  • 81%Pass accuracy75%
  • 325Passes311
  • 262Accurate passes232
  • 52%Possession48%
  • 2Saves4
  • 16Shots7
  • 6Shots off target5
  • 7Shots on target2
  • 1Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Konyaspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Masuaku907.500––1
B. Han Güngördü907.900––0
C. Awaziem909.220211
M. Jevtović907.300–14
R. Baniya907.500––1
Y. Andzouana907.3001–1
J. Muleka877.200420
D. Türüç847.201250
M. İbrahimoğlu836.500111
E. Bardhi767.200–11
J. Dompé766.3002–0
D. Gonçalves147.000–10
R. Tóth146.500––0
U. Yazğılı126.600––0
E. Colley116.5001–0
M. Mohamed86.700––0
Gençlerbirliği
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Tongya906.9002–3
İ. Can Eğribayat906.900––0
M. Baltacı906.3001–1
O. Diabate906.500––1
R. Luis906.9002–2
T. Kelven906.000––1
E. Çavuşoğlu607.200–12
F. Üzüm576.300––2
P. Mendes576.5001–1
O. Ülgün526.700–10
A. Malouda Traoré455.9001–0
S. Uçan456.700––2
S. Koita386.300––0
T. Gouveia337.000––0
V. Orakpo336.700––0
D. Goutas307.000––0

xG (Highlightly) available

Konyaspor
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Muleka0.620.560.36
E. Colley0.370.010.23
C. Awaziem0.290.001.29
D. Türüç0.230.35–
M. İbrahimoğlu0.120.080.10
J. Dompé0.110.01–
E. Bardhi0.080.07–
R. Baniya0.080.00–
Y. Andzouana0.010.01–
A. Masuaku–0.05–
B. Han Güngördü–0.00–
D. Gonçalves–0.10–
M. Jevtović–0.02–
M. Mohamed–0.00–
R. Tóth–0.00–
U. Yazğılı–0.00–
Gençlerbirliği
PlayerxGxAxGOT
F. Tongya0.810.010.75
A. Malouda Traoré0.260.01–
P. Mendes0.190.02–
R. Luis0.080.030.06
M. Baltacı0.020.00–
D. Goutas–0.00–
E. Çavuşoğlu–0.14–
F. Üzüm–0.01–
İ. Can Eğribayat–0.00–
O. Ülgün–0.04–
O. Diabate–0.01–
S. Uçan–0.01–
S. Koita–0.00–
T. Kelven–0.01–
T. Gouveia–0.00–
V. Orakpo–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Gençlerbirliği4-4-1-1

  1. 70İ. Can Eğribayat6.9
  1. 88F. Üzüm6.3
  2. 90M. Baltacı6.3
  3. 6D. Goutas (c)7.0
  4. 2T. Kelven6.0
  1. 83R. Luis6.9
  2. 42O. Diabate6.5
  3. 48S. Uçan6.7
  4. 10F. Tongya6.9
  1. 20S. Koita6.3
  1. 9P. Mendes6.5
  1. 11J. Muleka7.2
  1. 91J. Dompé6.3
  2. 10E. Bardhi7.2
  3. 9D. Türüç (c)7.2
  1. 8M. Jevtović7.3
  2. 77M. İbrahimoğlu6.5
  1. 26A. Masuaku7.5
  2. 15C. Awaziem9.2
  3. 22R. Baniya7.5
  4. 17Y. Andzouana7.3
  1. 13B. Han Güngördü7.9

Konyaspor4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Konyaspor · Bench

Coach: Ilhan Palut

Gençlerbirliği · Bench

Coach: Bernd Storck

Key players

Konyasporavailable

  1. M. İbrahimoğlu · Midfielder699 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Muleka · Forward645 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. D. Türüç · Midfielder606 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Gençlerbirliğiavailable

  1. D. Goutas · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. İ. Can Eğribayat · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. F. Tongya · Midfielder690 min in 8 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Konyaspor the most probability, 20.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Konyaspor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Konyaspor · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Konyaspor · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Konyaspor. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 49.1%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.711, Brier 0.390 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Konyaspor36.7
Gençlerbirliği34.5
Konyaspor — 36.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 36% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Gençlerbirliği — 34.595% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 8 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 18 Oct, 14:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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