Jagiellonia Białystok v Anderlecht

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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Jagiellonia Białystok

0–3FT · HT 0–1

AnderlechtM. Cvetković 21′ · M. Winkler 72′ · J. Onia Seke 80′

Where to watch

Thu 22 Oct· Stadion Miejski, Białystok

Data checked 04:07Details

Data last checked 04:07; unchanged since 12 days ago (30 Oct 2026, 22:01)
Kick-off 22 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK time
Referee: Ondrej Berka
Where to watch

Kick-off 22 Oct 2026, 20:00
Stadion Miejski, Białystok
Referee: Ondrej Berka
Data last checked 04:07; unchanged since 12 days ago (30 Oct 2026, 22:01)

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Anderlecht⁩ win. The model gave it 33.5%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.297 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off: ⁦1.33 – 1.21⁩
Chances created (match xG): ⁦0.40 – 1.02⁩
Goals: ⁦0 – 3⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

⁦1–1⁩ 13.2%
⁦1–0⁩ 10.0%
⁦0–1⁩ 9.1%
⁦0–0⁩ 8.4%
⁦2–1⁩ 8.4%

⁦0–3⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

v1Early pre-match · 15 Oct, 20:00
v2Early pre-match · 16 Oct, 20:05

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 16 Oct, 20:05 UK time, 5 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 15 Oct on 15,614 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet

The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5

Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet

No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

20:00Kick-off
21′Goal · AnderlechtM. Cvetković
45+2′Yellow card · Jagiellonia BiałystokR. Conceição
45′Substitution · Jagiellonia BiałystokO. Sow on · H. Finndell off
46′Yellow card · AnderlechtT. Aasgaard
53′Yellow card · Jagiellonia BiałystokB. Vital
65′Substitution · Jagiellonia BiałystokJ. Agbonifo on · K. Jóźwiak off
65′Substitution · Jagiellonia BiałystokA. Ćirković on · K. Szmyt off
65′Substitution · AnderlechtE. Llansana on · L. Ambros off
65′Substitution · AnderlechtJ. Onia Seke on · T. Degreef off
67′Yellow card · Jagiellonia BiałystokE. Kozlowski
71′Yellow card · AnderlechtE. Llansana
72′Goal · AnderlechtM. Winkler · (assist E. Llansana)
77′Substitution · Jagiellonia BiałystokT. Romanczuk on · A. Klynge off
78′Substitution · AnderlechtM. Kana on · M. Stroeykens off
78′Substitution · AnderlechtA. Bertaccini on · M. Cvetković off
80′Goal · AnderlechtJ. Onia Seke · (assist E. Llansana)
81′Yellow card · AnderlechtJ. Onia Seke
82′Substitution · AnderlechtO. Antman on · M. Winkler off
82′Substitution · Jagiellonia BiałystokJ. Imaz on · N. Prelec off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

3Blocked shots3
4Corners4
0.40Expected goals (xG)1.02
12Fouls20
2Offsides0
360Passes512
287Accurate passes437
41%Possession59%
0Red cards0
5Saves1
6Shots15
2Shots off target4
1Shots on target8
3Yellow cards3

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Jagiellonia Białystok
Player	Min	Rating	Shots	Key passes	Tackles
B. Vital	90	6.0	0	1	2
E. Kozlowski	90	6.4	0	0	0
G. Montóia	90	6.1	1	0	0
R. Conceição	90	6.1	0	1	2
S. Abramowicz	90	6.6	0	0	0
Y. Kobayashi	90	6.0	0	0	0
N. Prelec	82	6.2	1	1	0
A. Klynge	77	5.7	2	0	2
K. Szmyt	65	5.9	1	0	1
K. Jóźwiak	65	5.4	0	0	4
H. Finndell	45	5.9	0	1	0
O. Sow	45	5.6	0	2	0
A. Ćirković	25	6.3	1	0	0
J. Agbonifo	25	6.2	0	0	0
T. Romanczuk	13	5.5	0	0	0
J. Imaz	8	5.8	0	0	0

Anderlecht
Player	Min	Rating	Goals	Assists	Shots	Key passes	Tackles
C. Coosemans	90	6.6	0	0	0	0	0
G. Biancone	90	7.2	0	0	0	1	3
K. Barry	90	7.0	0	0	2	0	0
L. Pétrot	90	6.7	0	0	0	0	2
O. Reabciuk	90	7.4	0	0	2	2	2
T. Aasgaard	90	6.6	0	0	2	1	2
M. Winkler	82	8.1	1	0	2	0	1
M. Stroeykens	78	7.1	0	0	0	2	4
M. Cvetković	78	7.7	1	0	2	0	0
L. Ambros	65	7.2	0	0	1	2	0
T. Degreef	65	6.3	0	0	2	1	0
E. Llansana	25	7.0	0	2	0	2	0
J. Onia Seke	25	7.5	1	0	2	1	1
A. Bertaccini	12	6.5	0	0	0	0	0
M. Kana	12	6.4	0	0	0	0	0
O. Antman	8	6.5	0	0	0	0	0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Jagiellonia Białystok
Player	xG	xA	xGOT
A. Klynge	0.08	0.01	–
K. Szmyt	0.06	0.02	–
N. Prelec	0.05	0.01	0.70
A. Ćirković	0.04	0.00	–
G. Montóia	0.02	0.03	0.02
B. Vital	–	0.08	–
E. Kozlowski	–	0.00	–
H. Finndell	–	0.04	–
J. Agbonifo	–	0.00	–
J. Imaz	–	0.00	–
K. Jóźwiak	–	0.04	–
O. Sow	–	0.04	–
R. Conceição	–	0.08	–
S. Abramowicz	–	0.00	–
T. Romanczuk	–	0.00	–
Y. Kobayashi	–	0.00	–

Anderlecht
Player	xG	xA	xGOT
T. Degreef	0.25	0.03	0.07
K. Barry	0.12	0.07	0.01
M. Winkler	0.12	0.05	0.84
J. Onia Seke	0.10	0.11	0.45
T. Aasgaard	0.08	0.03	–
O. Reabciuk	0.07	0.07	0.30
L. Ambros	0.03	0.12	0.03
A. Bertaccini	–	0.00	–
C. Coosemans	–	0.00	–
E. Llansana	–	0.01	–
G. Biancone	–	0.03	–
L. Pétrot	–	0.02	–
M. Kana	–	0.02	–
M. Stroeykens	–	0.10	–
O. Antman	–	0.00	–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Anderlecht4-3-3

26C. Coosemans6.6

50S. Abramowicz6.6

Jagiellonia Białystok4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Jagiellonia Białystok · Bench

Coach: A. Siemieniec

Anderlecht · Bench

Coach: Vítor Bruno

Key players

Jagiellonia Białystoklimited

B. Vital · Defender183 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
S. Abramowicz · Goalkeeper183 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
R. Conceição · Defender177 min in 2 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 2 of 6 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Anderlechtlimited

A. Omobamidele · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
C. Coosemans · Goalkeeper180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
L. Pétrot · Defender180 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 2 of 8 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Availability as last checked, 20 days ago (22 Oct 2026, 17:50).

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok the most probability, 5.3 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

Home advantage · favours Jagiellonia Białystok · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
Team strength · favours Anderlecht · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
Attack against defence · favours Anderlecht · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

v1 · 15 Oct, 20:00 UK timeEarly pre-match: first available version.
v2 · 16 Oct, 20:05 UK timeJagiellonia Białystok +0.8, draw -0.2, Anderlecht -0.6 points (early pre-match).
3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–3: Anderlecht. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 33.5%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.095, Brier 0.670 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened.

Evaluated 22 Oct, 21:55 UK time

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

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Top rated

M. WinklerAnderlecht · 82 min8.1

Goals: 1
Assists: 0
xG: 0.12

Ratings, best six

Ratings and xG as the licensed match data supplies them

Availability available