Skip to content

Moments that matter

0 live

Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
← ScoresTimes: UK time

Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Esteghlal v Gol Gohar

EsteghlalE. Gholizadeh 48′
1–0FT · HT 0–0
Gol Gohar
Where to watch

· Azadi Stadium, Tehran

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Azadi Stadium, Tehran
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Esteghlal⁩ win. The model gave it 43.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.178 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.14 – 0.70⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 18.1%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 15.7%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 15.0%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.3%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 8.8%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 12 Oct, 14:20 UK time, 7 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 684 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 15:15Kick-off
  2. 16′Substitution · Gol GoharA. Zendehrouh on · E. Hosseini off
  3. 33′Yellow card · Gol GoharA. Alizadeh
  4. 46′Substitution · Gol GoharM. Abbasi on · M. Alinejad off
  5. 48′Goal · EsteghlalE. Gholizadeh · (assist S. Saharkhizan)
  6. 57′Yellow card · EsteghlalS. Fallah
  7. 65′Substitution · Gol GoharO. Alishah on · L. Ben Hassine off
  8. 65′Substitution · Gol GoharA. Jafari on · P. Ghazipour off
  9. 71′Substitution · EsteghlalM. Eslami on · S. Saharkhizan off
  10. 75′Substitution · Gol GoharA. Ashouri on · A. Alizadeh off
  11. 76′Substitution · EsteghlalA. Koushki on · E. Gholizadeh off
  12. 77′Yellow card · EsteghlalR. Ashurmatov
  13. 83′Substitution · EsteghlalA. Razzaghinia on · R. Cheshmi off
  14. 89′Penalty missed · EsteghlalA. Koushki · (assist A. Koushki)
  15. 90+5′Yellow card · EsteghlalS. Hardani
  16. 90+8′Yellow card · EsteghlalS. Hardani
  17. 90+8′Red card · EsteghlalS. Hardani
  18. 90+9′Yellow card · EsteghlalH. Farabbasi

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Esteghlal

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Gol Gohar

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Esteghlal · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Gol Gohar · Bench

Coach: Seyed Rahmati

Key players

Esteghlalnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Gol Goharnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Esteghlal the most probability, 8.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Esteghlal · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Esteghlal · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Esteghlal · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (686 → 684), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: Esteghlal. Version 2 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 43.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.825, Brier 0.485 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Esteghlal84.7
Gol Gohar70.4
Esteghlal — 84.775% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 9 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 49% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Gol Gohar — 70.475% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 10 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 14:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.