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Eredivisie· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag

PEC ZwolleD. Mbayo 45′
1–0FT · HT 1–0
ADO Den Haag
Where to watch

· MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Jeroen Manschot
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
  • Referee: Jeroen Manschot
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨PEC Zwolle⁩ win. The model gave it 38.8%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.247 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.57 – 1.47⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.48 – 0.52⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.7%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.1%
  • ⁦2–2⁩ 6.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 6.2%

⁦1–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 01 Nov, 10:50 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 31 Oct on 919 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 11:15Kick-off
  2. 40′VAR · ADO Den Haag · Goal disallowedE. Rottier
  3. 45′Goal · PEC ZwolleD. Mbayo · (assist Y. Namli)
  4. 45′Substitution · ADO Den HaagO. Raterink on · J. Jensen-Abbew off
  5. 45′Substitution · ADO Den HaagC. Peupion on · J. Hawkins off
  6. 48′Yellow card · ADO Den HaagY. Eduardo
  7. 52′Yellow card · ADO Den HaagP. Mulder
  8. 60′Substitution · PEC ZwolleT. Oosting on · Y. Namli off
  9. 61′Substitution · ADO Den HaagJ. Bal on · M. Šín off
  10. 61′Substitution · ADO Den HaagD. van Mieghem on · N. Thomas off
  11. 65′Yellow card · PEC ZwolleO. Aertssen
  12. 72′Yellow card · ADO Den HaagM. Waem
  13. 73′Substitution · PEC ZwolleI. Cissoko on · D. Mbayo off
  14. 74′Substitution · PEC ZwolleJ. Bürger on · O. Aertssen off
  15. 78′Substitution · ADO Den HaagD. Bárány on · Y. Eduardo off
  16. 79′Yellow card · PEC ZwolleG. van der Wal
  17. 81′Yellow card · PEC ZwolleI. Cissoko
  18. 88′Substitution · PEC ZwolleT. Velthuis on · T. Sommer off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 8Blocked shots3
  • 8Corners2
  • 1.48Expected goals (xG)0.52
  • 15Fouls9
  • 1Offsides2
  • 267Passes527
  • 176Accurate passes439
  • 34%Possession66%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves4
  • 24Shots12
  • 11Shots off target5
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 3Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

PEC Zwolle
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. van der Haar906.500213
G. van der Wal906.200212
J. Schendelaar906.700000
N. Viergever906.900110
R. Thomas906.800145
S. Graves906.900111
S. van Hooijdonk906.400520
T. Sommer887.200331
O. Aertssen746.500222
D. Mbayo737.710100
Y. Namli607.701442
T. Oosting306.800110
I. Cissoko176.200000
J. Bürger166.600101
T. Velthuis26.400000
ADO Den Haag
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Rottier905.900500
J. Kilo907.200050
K. Nikièma907.800001
M. Waem906.600100
M. Hokke907.200012
P. Mulder906.700012
Y. Eduardo786.100000
M. Šín616.200201
N. Thomas616.400000
C. Peupion456.900020
J. Hawkins456.500200
J. Jensen-Abbew456.000000
O. Raterink456.300101
D. van Mieghem296.500100
J. Bal296.000000
D. Bárány126.300001

xG (Highlightly) available

PEC Zwolle
PlayerxGxAxGOT
T. Sommer0.330.250.20
S. van Hooijdonk0.290.130.17
O. Aertssen0.150.24–
N. Viergever0.140.02–
Y. Namli0.120.20–
D. Mbayo0.110.020.72
G. van der Wal0.070.06–
S. Graves0.070.04–
T. Oosting0.070.00–
J. Bürger0.040.00–
D. van der Haar0.020.07–
I. Cissoko–0.00–
J. Schendelaar–0.00–
R. Thomas–0.00–
ADO Den Haag
PlayerxGxAxGOT
E. Rottier0.250.100.06
J. Hawkins0.080.000.07
M. Šín0.080.00–
O. Raterink0.050.01–
M. Waem0.030.02–
D. van Mieghem0.020.010.03
C. Peupion–0.04–
J. Bal–0.00–
J. Jensen-Abbew–0.04–
J. Kilo–0.12–
K. Nikièma–0.01–
M. Hokke–0.19–
N. Thomas–0.00–
P. Mulder–0.00–
Y. Eduardo–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

ADO Den Haag4-3-3

  1. 1K. Nikièma7.8
  1. 5J. Jensen-Abbew6.0
  2. 3P. Mulder6.7
  3. 4M. Waem6.6
  4. 15M. Hokke7.2
  1. 25J. Kilo7.2
  2. 11E. Rottier5.9
  3. 33M. Šín6.2
  1. 17J. Hawkins6.5
  2. 46Y. Eduardo6.1
  3. 27N. Thomas6.4
  1. 11D. Mbayo7.7
  2. 17S. van Hooijdonk6.4
  3. 7Y. Namli7.7
  1. 8T. Sommer7.2
  2. 37G. van der Wal6.2
  3. 30R. Thomas6.8
  1. 33D. van der Haar6.5
  2. 24N. Viergever6.9
  3. 28S. Graves6.9
  4. 3O. Aertssen6.5
  1. 1J. Schendelaar6.7

PEC Zwolle4-3-3

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

PEC Zwolle · Bench

Coach: not supplied

ADO Den Haag · Bench

Coach: R. Peter

Key players

PEC Zwolleavailable

  1. N. Viergever · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Schendelaar · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Graves · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

ADO Den Haagavailable

  1. J. Kilo · Midfielder900 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. K. Nikièma · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. P. Mulder · Defender883 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Eredivisie 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model sees this as close: PEC Zwolle is ahead by 4.3 points, which is within the noise of a football match.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours PEC Zwolle · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours ADO Den Haag · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours ADO Den Haag · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · PEC Zwolle -3.8, draw +0.6, ADO Den Haag +3.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (24 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (920 → 919), history from (20 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–0: PEC Zwolle. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 38.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.947, Brier 0.565 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

PEC Zwolle21.7
ADO Den Haag29.0
PEC Zwolle — 21.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 17% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 21% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 57% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 51% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

ADO Den Haag — 29.095% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 29% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 49% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 01 Nov, 10:50 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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