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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Midtjylland v Sint-Truiden

Midtjylland
0–1FT · HT 0–1
Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle 42′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: J. Xhaja
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: J. Xhaja
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sint-Truiden⁩ win. The model gave it 19.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.500 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.98 – 1.04⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.90 – 1.98⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 10.0%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.5%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 6.6%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 22 Oct, 19:45 UK time, 14 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 21 Oct on 19,965 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 9′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenR. Vanwesemael
  3. 22′Yellow card · MidtjyllandP. Bravo
  4. 42′Goal · Sint-TruidenF. Soelle Soelle · (assist R. Vanwesemael)
  5. 59′Yellow card · Sint-TruidenI. Sebaoui
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Substitution · MidtjyllandC. Gue-Sung on · P. Bravo off
  2. 46′Substitution · MidtjyllandS. Iheanacho on · H. Hyun-Seok off
  3. 46′Substitution · MidtjyllandF. Etim on · M. Rajović off
  4. 69′Substitution · MidtjyllandV. Bak on · D. Martínez off
  5. 72′Substitution · Sint-TruidenK. Matsuzawa on · R. Merlen off
  6. 72′Substitution · Sint-TruidenS. Baždar on · F. Soelle Soelle off
  7. 79′Substitution · MidtjyllandA. Ndiaye on · J. Emefile off
  8. 85′Substitution · Sint-TruidenT. Hata on · J. Pupe off
  9. 85′Substitution · Sint-TruidenA. Muja on · N. Mbuku off
  10. 90+4′Substitution · Sint-TruidenW. Janssens on · R. Vanwesemael off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 42%Possession58%
  • 2.90Expected goals (xG)1.98

Attack

  • 19Shots18
  • 4Shots on target7
  • 8Shots off target8
  • 7Blocked shots3
  • 6Corners7
  • 2Offsides0
  • 6Saves3

Passing

  • 328Passes463
  • 241Accurate passes345
  • 73%Pass accuracy75%

Discipline

  • 12Fouls10
  • 1Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Midtjylland
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
K. Wätjen906.9–0112
M. B. Sorensen906.9–01–1
N. Bakker908.5–0–––
O. Diao906.6–0––2
R. Kristensen907.7–0117
S. Johannesen908.7–0–51
J. Emefile797.3–0–31
D. Martínez696.3–0322
C. Gue-Sung456.6–01––
F. Etim457.0–012–
H. Hyun-Seok456.0–02–1
M. Rajović456.3–01––
P. Bravo456.5–0–––
S. Iheanacho456.2–011–
V. Bak216.9–0––3
A. Ndiaye116.7–0–11
Sint-Truiden
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Sissako906.3–0–31
I. Sebaoui907.6–0423
K. Takai907.3–01–2
L. Kokubo908.0–0–––
N. Ishiwatari907.2–0––2
V. Musliu908.9–01–1
R. Vanwesemael898.2–1–25
J. Pupe857.3–0–12
N. Mbuku857.6–0314
F. Soelle Soelle726.7101––
R. Merlen727.3–01––
K. Matsuzawa187.2–022–
S. Baždar186.9–021–
A. Muja86.9–0–1–
T. Hata86.9–0–11
W. Janssens1––0–––

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Midtjylland
PlayerxGxAxGOT
H. Hyun-Seok0.680.02–
F. Etim0.610.320.40
M. Rajović0.500.04–
D. Martínez0.430.060.09
S. Iheanacho0.260.010.02
K. Wätjen0.130.04–
C. Gue-Sung0.080.20–
R. Kristensen0.060.03–
A. Ndiaye–0.13–
N. Bakker–0.01–
O. Diao–0.04–
P. Bravo–0.00–
S. Johannesen–0.94–
V. Bak–0.01–
Sint-Truiden
PlayerxGxAxGOT
F. Soelle Soelle0.650.050.98
R. Merlen0.400.21–
I. Sebaoui0.350.390.11
N. Mbuku0.300.400.16
S. Baždar0.130.180.13
K. Matsuzawa0.060.100.47
A. Muja0.050.28–
K. Takai0.020.000.07
V. Musliu0.010.01–
A. Sissako–0.05–
J. Pupe–0.05–
L. Kokubo–0.01–
N. Ishiwatari–0.12–
R. Vanwesemael–0.53–
T. Hata–0.00–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 1 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

  1. 9RajovićOff 46′6.3
  2. 38EmefileOff 79′7.3
  1. 27Johannesen8.7
  2. 29Wätjen6.9
  3. 20Hyun-SeokOff 46′6.0
  4. 98MartínezOff 69′6.3
  1. 19BravoBooked 22′ · Off 46′6.5
  1. 22B. Sorensen6.9
  2. 4Diao6.6
  3. 5Kristensen (c)7.7
  1. 25Bakker8.5

Midtjylland3-1-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sint-Truiden

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Midtjylland · Bench

Coach: Mike Tullberg

Sint-Truiden · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Midtjyllandavailable

  1. R. Kristensen · Defender455 min in 5 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists
  2. M. B. Sorensen · Defender455 min in 5 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. D. Castillo · Midfielder366 min in 5 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 5 matches played.

Sint-Truidenavailable

  1. R. Vanwesemael · Defender90 min in 1 match · 1 goal · 0 assists
  2. A. Sissako · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Pupe · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Midtjylland the most probability, 36.6 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Midtjylland · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Midtjylland · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Midtjylland · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Midtjylland -0.7, draw +0.4, Sint-Truiden +0.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Midtjylland -0.5, draw -0.1, Sint-Truiden +0.6 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (15 Oct 2026 → 21 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,614 → 19,965), history from (11 Oct 2023 → 17 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Sint-Truiden. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 19.1%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.657, Brier 1.049 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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