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Picked from 24 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Dundee v Kilmarnock

DundeeJ. Bevan 32′ · A. Hay 83′, 90+4′
3–1FT · HT 1–0
KilmarnockJ. Hugill 75′
Where to watch

· Dens Park, Dundee

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Dens Park, Dundee
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Dundee⁩ win. The model gave it 48.0%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.176 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.78 – 1.33⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.29 – 2.11⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 7.8%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.1%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.0%

⁦3–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 28 Oct, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 27 Oct on 688 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

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Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 32′Goal · DundeeJ. Bevan · (assist E. Hamilton)
  3. 58′Yellow card · KilmarnockC. McCarthy
  4. 60′Substitution · DundeeC. Reilly on · J. Bevan off
  5. 65′Substitution · DundeeJ. Westley on · B. Fink off
  6. 66′Substitution · DundeeM. Akinmboni on · J. Wright off
  7. 70′Substitution · KilmarnockM. Kamara on · R. Deas off
  8. 75′Penalty · KilmarnockJ. Hugill
  9. 76′Substitution · KilmarnockI. Owen on · G. Kiltie off
  10. 76′Substitution · KilmarnockJ. Meier on · J. Brandon off
  11. 78′Substitution · DundeeŽ. Bešir on · C. Jones off
  12. 80′VAR · Dundee · Goal disallowedA. Hay
  13. 83′Goal · DundeeA. Hay · (assist A. Forrest)
  14. 85′Yellow card · KilmarnockG. Stanger
  15. 89′Substitution · KilmarnockD. Daniels on · C. McCarthy off
  16. 90+3′Yellow card · KilmarnockM. Kamara
  17. 90+4′Goal · DundeeA. Hay · (assist O. Goodman)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 2Blocked shots4
  • 7Corners5
  • 2.29Expected goals (xG)2.11
  • 7Fouls13
  • 2Offsides1
  • 405Passes412
  • 304Accurate passes322
  • 46%Possession54%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves2
  • 15Shots15
  • 8Shots off target8
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Dundee
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Forrest907.901020
A. Hay909.120201
D. Wright906.300011
E. Hamilton907.701531
I. Samuels906.400001
O. Goodman906.901010
R. Astley907.000101
C. Jones786.600011
J. Wright666.100001
B. Fink655.900410
J. Bevan607.710300
C. Reilly306.400000
J. Westley256.500000
M. Akinmboni246.300000
Ž. Bešir126.000000
Kilmarnock
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Tshibola906.500111
G. Stanger906.100114
J. Hugill906.410300
M. Schjønning-Larsen906.000211
O. Pantaloni906.500213
S. Valakari905.700000
T. Lowery906.300113
C. McCarthy896.000110
G. Kiltie766.700450
J. Brandon765.800011
R. Deas706.100003
M. Kamara205.800000
I. Owen146.200000
J. Meier145.900010
D. Daniels16.400000

xG (Highlightly)limited

Dundee
PlayerxGxAxGOT
O. Goodman–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 2 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Kilmarnock4-3-3

  1. 58S. Valakari5.7
  1. 2J. Brandon5.8
  2. 4C. McCarthy6.0
  3. 14G. Stanger6.1
  4. 6R. Deas6.1
  1. 18T. Lowery6.3
  2. 36A. Tshibola6.5
  3. 21M. Schjønning-Larsen6.0
  1. 10O. Pantaloni6.5
  2. 9J. Hugill6.4
  3. 11G. Kiltie6.7
  1. 21B. Fink5.9
  2. 11A. Hay9.1
  1. 14A. Forrest7.9
  2. 48E. Hamilton7.7
  3. 28C. Jones6.6
  4. 27J. Bevan7.7
  1. 12I. Samuels6.4
  2. 4R. Astley7.0
  3. 26J. Wright6.1
  4. 7D. Wright6.3
  1. 1O. Goodman6.9

Dundee4-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Dundee · Bench

Coach: Steven Pressley

Kilmarnock · Bench

Coach: N. McCann

Key players

Dundeeavailable

  1. O. Bevan · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists
  2. E. Hamilton · Midfielder900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. R. Astley · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Kilmarnockavailable

  1. J. Hugill · Forward886 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 1 assist
  2. M. Schjønning-Larsen · Defender884 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  3. G. Stanger · Defender881 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Dundee the most probability, 19.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Dundee · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Dundee · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Dundee · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (20 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026), history from (16 Oct 2023 → 20 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Dundee +0.4, draw -0.1, Kilmarnock -0.3 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (24 Oct 2026 → 27 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (685 → 688), history from (20 Oct 2023 → 23 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–1: Dundee. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 48.0%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.734, Brier 0.407 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Dundee46.9
Kilmarnock29.9
Dundee — 46.995% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, venue effect and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 54% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 46% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 82% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Kilmarnock — 29.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 28 Oct, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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